JoMo Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Throw out the NAM. Its the GFS/UK/RGEM/RAP/SREF all further south with the GFS now the most extreme. NAM has had a northern bias this season. Yeah I lined up last hours RAP 18hr forecast with the 12z GFS/NAM. It nearly matched the GFS at the same time period. The issue is where precip sets up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Well damn this thing looks like its gonna come in further south for sure maybe, springfield thinking the same and saying they may have to put warnings and adjust the totals up higher further south. Right now they are saying an advisory for most of us, me being right there at that heavy snow line(hwy 54 again lol) where its 2-4, 6-8". I hate being right there so close, storms are so whacky out here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 yeah umm slight differences... Looks like I go from a trace to 1" on the NAM to 8-10" on the GFS. EDIT: GFS Station plot updated. This is not going to happen, but I wish it would! http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=SGF 12z NAM: 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Yep and here's the totals Tulsa is expecting. (this will change before/during/after the event) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Seems like most the stations follow the nam hard? If its showing 1", seems like doug is still thinking kc gets hit the hardest and only very light ammounts down here....no clue what model he uses? Maybe a blend of them all i really dont know. The nam has been total crap this season, when isnt it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Seems like most the stations follow the nam hard? If its showing 1", seems like doug is still thinking kc gets hit the hardest and only very light ammounts down here....no clue what model he uses? Maybe a blend of them all i really dont know. The nam has been total crap this season, when isnt it lol Doug's totals were from last night using the NAM/GFS and their RPM model I believe. I don't think he's updated today and I think his migraines are bothering him. I'm waiting on the Euro to see what's up. It will probably be a compromise between the NAM/GFS positioning. GFS extracted data has -TSSN (thunder snow) for Joplin, Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 You guys keep updates on here this afternoon for me - gonna be out at a wedding for awhile lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Doug's totals were from last night using the NAM/GFS and their RPM model I believe. I don't think he's updated today and I think his migraines are bothering him. I'm waiting on the Euro to see what's up. It will probably be a compromise between the NAM/GFS positioning. GFS extracted data has -TSSN (thunder snow) for Joplin, Tulsa. Yea I was reading that, I think it was the other guy doing the update. The actual koam or whatever it is website is where I usually go, then I check his facebook page...hate facebook though for the most part nothing but drama on there lol. Have to use it though cause my younger sister refuses to just write me in regular ole email sighhhh lol. And Moweatherguy Im sure jomo will keep us all updated. On a side note I think my temp was supposed to be alot warmer today then it currently is, its 39.6 outside here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 12z Euro is a compromise solution between the NAM/GFS. Not as far south as the GFS and not as far north as the NAM. Amounts would be much less farther south than the GFS though. The Euro slowed down the system, and increased QPF amounts somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Updated AFD's AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO101 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013...UPDATE TO AVIATION....UPDATE.../ISSUED 1215 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013/MAIN CONCERN IS OBVIOUSLY WITH THE TIMING/TRACK OF ADEVELOPING/DEEPENING STORM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGIONTONIGHT AND SUNDAY.AN UPPER JET STILL DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OFTHE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT 12Z WILL SHIFT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE REGIONBY EARLY EVENING/00Z...THEN IT WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT OR ROUND THE BASEOF THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR BY 12Z/DAYBREAKSUNDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY SPREAD INTO THE REGION AHEADOF THE SYSTEM WITH SOME ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE WITH WEAK MUCAPE OF100-125 J/KG SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN CWFA TOWARD EVENING.MAIN ACTION FOR THE WINTER WEATHER WILL OCCUR TOWARD MIDNIGHT ANDSUNDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR BEGINS TOSURGE INTO THE REGION. PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL CROSSSECTIONS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE GFS...SHOW THE TRANSITION TO EDGEINTO THE FORT SCOTT KS/NW CWFA BY 06Z...THEN TRANSITIONING JUST NEAROR JUST BEHIND THE 850MB ZERO DEG C ISOTHERM FROM THECASSVILLE-SPRINGFIELD-OSAGE BEACH AREA BY 12Z/0700LT SUNDAY MORNING.THE 12Z GFS (EASILY) DEPICTS A WINTER STORM CRITERIA SCENARIOFARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS RUNS 00Z OFTHE GEM AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. EVEN PREVIOUS RUNS OFTHE GFS WERE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS (IF NOTTHUNDER) NEAR THE UPPER LOW...AND THAT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE GIVENHOW THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY.THE NEW 12Z GEM/CANADIAN MODEL RUN HAS IRONICALLY BACKED OFF ON THESNOW SOMEWHAT FROM THE 00Z RUN AND ACTUALLY LINES UP FAIRLY WELLWITH OUR CURRENT WARNING/ADVISORY...WITH ONLY MAYBE SOME SMALLADJUSTMENTS SOUTH POSSIBLE. THE 12Z NAM IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITHTHE OVERALL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM VERSUS ALL OTHER 00Z AND 12ZGUIDANCE AND SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER. WILL BE WAITING FOR THE ECMWFFOR THE FINAL PIECE OF THE GUIDANCE PUZZLE ALONG WITH WATCHINGOBSERVED TRENDS TO OUR WEST AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. THE LATEST WSWSTATEMENT WAS JUST SENT WITH NO CHANGES IN COUNTIES FOR NOW. Tulsa: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK1253 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FORLATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELYBE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INEFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS ALONG THE OK/KSSTATE LINE WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 3 INCHES. FORECASTWILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED AS ADDITIONAL DATA IS AVAILABLE. THEREGULARLY SCHEDULE FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED LATER THISAFTERNOON GIVEN LATEST TRENDS. STAY TUNED. Wichita: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS1206 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION....UPDATE...ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013LATEST RADAR/SURFACE OBS AND NEW 12Z DATA WOULD SUGGEST A BIT MOREWINTRY PRECIP FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITHCONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP LENDING TO SOME SLEET AND SNOW. SOHAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO SHOW LIGHT ACCUMS OF GENERALLY AN INCH ORLESS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMS STILLEXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH AN INCH ORTWO. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH NEW DATA COMING IN TOWARD MIDDAY ANDMAY HAVE TO ADJUST SNOW ACCUMS UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSSPORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Update again lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 18z NAM has shifted everything south. Not as far south as the GFS and not as heavy, but still a shift south that would bring snow into NE OK and SW MO, unlike the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Yeah hopefully the S push is for real. The 12z GFS really is extreme at this point it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Afternoon AFD's... Winter Weather Advisory from Tulsa north and for the first couple counties in NW Arkansas AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK302 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013.DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FOURCORNERS REGION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SHIFTEDLOW TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH HAS INCREASED THE WINTERWEATHER POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. 12Z GFS WASTHE FURTHEST SOUTH AND THE GENERAL OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE NAM ANDECMWF SOLUTIONS. STILL EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THEADVISORY AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER.IF TRACK IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED PORTIONS OFAFOREMENTIONED AREA WOULD NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORMWARNING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TIGHTSNOWFALL GRADIENT EXPECTED...WHICH COULD SHIFT A COUNTY OR TWONORTH OR SOUTH...SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEASTOKLAHOMA THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. PRECIPITATIONACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE THISEVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEASTOKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATETONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY NOON.COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ANDCONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEHIND SYSTEM WITH FREQUENT GUST TO 30 MPH. Wichita: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS251 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST UPDATES WILL FOCUS OF THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THESTORM TRACK ALONG WITH HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS AFFECTING EASTERNKANSAS...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEKAND CHANCES OF RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.TONIGHTSNOW HAS NOT BEEN ACCUMULATING MUCH IF AT ALL DUE TO TEMPERATURES INTHE LOW TO MID 30S OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER THAT SHOULD CHANGETONIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND MUCH STRONGER LIFT FROM UPPERWAVE. THE STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHATYESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS HAD...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS LATEST IRSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET TRACER DIVINGSOUTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. THE PV ANOMALY WILL FOLLOW THISJET TRACER AND DIG A BIT MORE...THEN MAKE THE TREK EASTWARD ACROSSOKLAHOMA TONIGHT. WE ARE EXPECTING THE LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE OVERCENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING BUT SNOW INTENSITY SHOULDBEGIN PICK UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 9PM...AS ISENTROPICLIFT WITH-IN DEVELOPING TROWAL AXIS BEGINS. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVYAT TIMES ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSASTURNPIKE WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR A GOODPORTION OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. IN ADDITION...NORTH WINDS WILLINCREASE AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS TONIGHT CREATING SOME BLOWING ANDDRIFTING OF SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Looks like JLN and Monett areas are going to be really close to a decent snow tomorrow morning. Tulsa going all out with some 5 inch totals in their zone forecasts for the border counties of KS and MO. Extrapolated out that should bode well for at least I-44 and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Decisions, decisions. SGF still mulling over everything before making a call on their zone package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Yeah the 18z GFS just arrived and moved back north, so now there is a consensus between pretty much all the models on where the heaviest sets up. I'll take 3" or so, that's just icing on the cake since I got 5" with thundersnow already and big flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I knew 12z had to be too good to be true. I'll take my inch or so I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 New zones are out. Winter storm warning 1 county north of here for 5-7" Looks like 2-5" here. 1-3" or so down by you MoWeatherguy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Well they upgraded me to a warning now and that heavy snow setup looks to be around bolivar and points north or so. Ill believe this when I see it lol. 5-7" or more, What I can tell you guys is where the rain/snow line currently is, about 3 miles south of clinton. We went up to clinton today and at first it was doing nothing, left our friends house and it was snowing like crazy....huge giant flakes. Raining here currently and 40 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Latest from Nick and Doug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Yep seen it just now, Im back to that border of 3-6,6-10 lol. Doing anything down there jomo? And how did you get that lil weather thing below your name? I know im a pita lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Latest from Nick and Doug. with these amount of 3 or 4 roughly for us and the wind if that means we should expect powerlosses ??? thoughts ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 It's been mist/fog all day. You can get the little weather icon thing by going to "My Settings" and entering an airport code. It seems like it will be a heavy wet snow with the temps the way they are so I'm sure it'll be sticking the the trees again. About an hour and 30 mins until the 00z NAM starts. Looks like KSPR is going with heavier amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Ok thnx jomo, no clue what the airport code thing is though or which to use. I kinda understood but didnt lol. And wow that map there says 8-10" for me, nope never did get a snow shovel haha....guess im practically screwed if we get that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 00z NAM shifted things a few more miles to the south this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I think the KSPR map is out to lunch, at least with the southward extent of decent accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yeah KSPR looking a bit generous IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I think it is a bit high as well. Since we are dealing with a closing off upper low so close to us, it'll be important to watch out for heavy bands of snow or convective snow right under the upper low. That's how Joplin lucked out with 4-5" and thundersnow a couple of weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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