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okie333

OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

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Its game over for us on this storm.

Though I pretty much gave up on this winter season theres one thing for sure I have learnt out here, never underestimate mother nature lol or the models. Things can and probly will change, theres still alot of time until this storm and I almost bet the models will flop around more lol

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Well the 00z GFS corrected a bit SE but it isn't enough with much of the snow over NE and IA this run.

I'm seeing some people on sub-forums talking about the Euro Weeklies being different than they have this winter heading into Week 2 (Feb 10th) through week 4. Maybe we'll get a change that will benefit us.

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I am kinda thinkin quite a bit of severe wx this spring given what Doug says about the setups going right over us then, but hopefully no episodes like we had 5-22 JoMo , lets hope they setup far away from us and tucker out by the time they get to us , we could use a wet spring with out all the damned severe though...

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really ?/ i fandy hb posts does that mean severe outbreak for us JoMo ????

lol, andyhb definitely follows severe weather. I think Reed Timmer and Greg Forbes have some people stirred up for Friday. Forbes says Tor-con of 4 and Reed says tornado outbreak.

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lol, andyhb definitely follows severe weather. I think Reed Timmer and Greg Forbes have some people stirred up for Friday. Forbes says Tor-con of 4 and Reed says tornado outbreak.

Lol of course he would...

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Lol of course he would...

yeah, now he's mentioning a cold core setup. I dunno yet, I don't trust the NAM that far out but having a big storm system wrap up west of you is never really good if you don't like severe.

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To be fair, the NAM has looked relatively impressive today for both Thursday and Friday, if you cherry-pick runs. It isn't exactly in lockstep with any of the other models, though.

Friday cold core potential in central to southeast KS looks intriguing. Could be a classic event during the 18-21z timeframe if all the pieces fall into place at the right time, but CC is incredibly difficult to forecast more than 6-12 hours in advance, IMO.

Thursday looked downright ominous for W TX on the 12z run. Both moisture return and low-level shear are tamed a bit on tonight's run, with less of an overt tornado threat, taken verbatim. Either way, it's the most legit surface-based severe potential I've ever seen in mid-winter that far west.

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To be fair, the NAM has looked relatively impressive today for both Thursday and Friday, if you cherry-pick runs. It isn't exactly in lockstep with any of the other models, though.

Friday cold core potential in central to southeast KS looks intriguing. Could be a classic event during the 18-21z timeframe if all the pieces fall into place at the right time, but CC is incredibly difficult to forecast more than 6-12 hours in advance, IMO.

Thursday looked downright ominous for W TX on the 12z run. Both moisture return and low-level shear are tamed a bit on tonight's run, with less of an overt tornado threat, taken verbatim. Either way, it's the most legit surface-based severe potential I've ever seen in mid-winter that far west.

Same with the later periods of yesterday's runs.

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Decided to go with PYKL3 for my Android radar needs based on your suggestions, been watching the storms near Little Rock to try it out and I'm pretty impressed. Lots of customization options and a new update on the way in probably a week or so as well.

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Even though this is the "Winter of our Discontent" for many here, the lack of snow continues a string of historic or near historic extremes our area has experienced over the last year or so.....and that in and of itself is rather amazing.

I am getting a bit concerned about seeing early signs of spring emerge in a few flowering trees and shrubs. I have never really been through a scenario like this, which if it continues, could be rather punishing for the fruit crop, and take some of the fun out of spring color. Anyone been through a "Jan/Feb false spring" before and if so, what is the result?

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Even though this is the "Winter of our Discontent" for many here, the lack of snow continues a string of historic or near historic extremes our area has experienced over the last year or so.....and that in and of itself is rather amazing.

I am getting a bit concerned about seeing early signs of spring emerge in a few flowering trees and shrubs. I have never really been through a scenario like this, which if it continues, could be rather punishing for the fruit crop, and take some of the fun out of spring color. Anyone been through a "Jan/Feb false spring" before and if so, what is the result?

It happens every now and then. I've had plants that have tried to come out too early that end up getting killed, and a bush that suffered freeze damage when it also tried to come out too early. I see daffodils coming up and Bradford Pears are starting to bud as well.

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Day 4-Day 5 have a weak system coming across. The Euro is actually showing some decent snow amounts over the area with this. (minus Ft. Smith area)

The Euro also drops the Arctic down mainly to the east of us at 168+

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JMA has a similar system as the Euro. Weakens as it heads out of the plains across the Mid Miss Valley. Pretty sad I dont remember even one Kuchera snow map posting in this thread yet this winter lol.

Edit: Nevermind I see where I did link to a Kuchera snow map back on Dec 2nd. The storm of the winter that brought us a whole lot of nothing.

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JMA has a similar system as the Euro. Weakens as it heads out of the plains across the Mid Miss Valley. Pretty sad I dont remember even one Kuchera snow map posting in this thread yet this winter lol.

Edit: Nevermind I see where I did link to a Kuchera snow map back on Dec 2nd. The storm of the winter that brought us a whole lot of nothing.

Yep, it's pretty obvious now that okie doomed winter by starting the thread by posting a NAM map. ;)

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Yep, it's pretty obvious now that okie doomed winter by starting the thread by posting a NAM map. ;)

:(

hold it... i just remembered where i got the maps from...

D*** YOU INSTANTWEATHERMAPS!!! ;)

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Wow, it is dead on here. You would think it is the middle of the summer. Notice NWS Tulsa has 0.1" of snow in their grids for the Tuesday night time period. There's our blizzard for 2012! LOL

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00z Euro was an odd run tonight. Chance of light snow in a few days like the GFS model, but then another chance of snow in 7 or so days with another weak system and marginal temps. Then at the end of the run it gets really weird with a system dropping into the SW and coming out negative tilt with a strong surface low that goes right over us.

FWIW, 252 hr GFS has a lil snow and a system so maybe the Euro isn't too far off.

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12z GFS... Seeing a signal for a big winter storm in the area in 10-14 days or so. It's been pretty consistent and is backed up by multiple models showing it. However, uncertain if the track will be east or west of us.

Edit: 12z Canadian has another storm on Friday-ish which would maybe be snow or a mix. Looking forward to the Euro.

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12z Euro has an overrunning type snowstorm from 150+ pulling into the Plains. The overall look is 'weird' on how it happens but it would give everyone snow from the Texas border on north. (including those in Arkansas)

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The 12Z Euro has a MAJOR southern snowstorm around 144hr-180hr....better go take a look now. It will probably be gone tonight. But that would make me a super happy gal IF it was to happen. GFS says we will be too warm...hmmmm

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The 12Z Euro has a MAJOR southern snowstorm around 144hr-180hr....better go take a look now. It will probably be gone tonight. But that would make me a super happy gal IF it was to happen. GFS says we will be too warm...hmmmm

It had a similar feature last night although it was much weaker. Not all of the maps are available to see exactly what is causing the huge jump in precip today. I'd take the amounts with a grain of salt at this time though.

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And as far as the Day 10+ storm, both the 12z GFS and 12z Euro are still showing something during that time frame.

12z GFS shows the trough reloading over the SW.

usavrthgtgrd500mb240h.gif

12z Euro is similar only a bit farther W

usahgt500mb240m.gif

The end result from that on the 12z GFS is a big storm system with snow across Arkansas, but the Euro doesn't go out far enough:

usapcpprstmp2m264u.gif

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18z GFS on the Day 10+ system.. Imagine this as snow, lol

This would be good for a lot of us, Sorry Arkansas people.

usapcpprstmp850mb264g.gif

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