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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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I'm more interested in the storm that is supposed to track across Texas next week.  If it gets stretched out and stays further south...it could ride the coast and create a giant noreaster for New England. Hmm..interesting. While back here we get nothing..how the heck did that happen?  Jomo and I should be used to this...why do I continue to put myself through this torture? Oh yea, because we got spoiled 3 years ago with the best snowstorm ever..and ever since then...nada...ugh SMH :(

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I'm more interested in the storm that is supposed to track across Texas next week. If it gets stretched out and stays further south...it could ride the coast and create a giant noreaster for New England. Hmm..interesting. While back here we get nothing..how the heck did that happen? Jomo and I should be used to this...why do I continue to put myself through this torture? Oh yea, because we got spoiled 3 years ago with the best snowstorm ever..and ever since then...nada...ugh SMH :(

Lol. We do this because we love snow. :-) I really could care less about the east coast. Seems like every forum in the US is northeast this and northeast that. I'm just glad to have found a more "local" board with people who talk about the weather here.

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I'm more interested in the storm that is supposed to track across Texas next week.  If it gets stretched out and stays further south...it could ride the coast and create a giant noreaster for New England. Hmm..interesting. While back here we get nothing..how the heck did that happen?  Jomo and I should be used to this...why do I continue to put myself through this torture? Oh yea, because we got spoiled 3 years ago with the best snowstorm ever..and ever since then...nada...ugh SMH :(

 

It's still only November, got a long way to go. 

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Kind of strange to see Gulf Coast storms this early in the season isn't it? 00z GFS would probably have a little snow/ice on the northern edge of the upper low when it kicks out. GGEM has snow when the system kicks out as well, but mostly over W OK area. On to the Euro.

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Let's hope your gut isn't just telling you that you shouldn't have ate those beans for dinner. ;)

 

00z Euro says we may get a little bit of something with the first system (on the far east edge) and then a little bit of something when the storm system kicks out.

 

Looks like a cool Thanksgiving. 

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Haha Jomo, actually I dont like beans! Are you trying to say Im full of it? lol

 

This weather is whacky though, its been really warm down this way for the most part so far. Nice during the day but really chilly at night. Im missing the country life a bit though, people drive like maniacs here and I feel like Im on the east coast again

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Haha Jomo, actually I dont like beans! Are you trying to say Im full of it? lol

 

This weather is whacky though, its been really warm down this way for the most part so far. Nice during the day but really chilly at night. Im missing the country life a bit though, people drive like maniacs here and I feel like Im on the east coast again

I-540 is a peach, isn't it? :) When I am down there I try to avoid it like the plague during rush hour.

 

Thanks for the model updates. Will be interesting to see what they do as we get a little closer to the event. There haven't been really violent swings in the short-term compared to some systems we track. I am anxious to watch it all play out.

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yeah and I suspect a lot of that wouldn't be snow but it would instead be freezing rain/sleet. 

 

That looks to be from the effects of the cutoff low making its presence felt by late Saturday over OK and TX.  As you say I would think there might be temp type issues given the upper air temps and thicknesses that are forecasted at H84.

 

Edit:  OK not the cutoff low effect as I see now that is an 84-hr total precip map and not just 3 hrs.

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This better for you OK folks? 12z NAM

 

 

The Coolwx.com precip accumulation plot for this 12z NAM. This shows very significant freezing rain and sleet accumulation. (Note, the GFS does not have this much of either sleet or freezing rain.) I am not sure why the Wxbell plot shows so much snow accumulation for Oklahoma, and this website's image shows freezing rain and sleet in Oklahoma.

 

post-1182-0-53667100-1384973240_thumb.gi

 

 

In the medium range. the 12z GFS shows a Gulf of Mexico cyclogenesis between Corpus Christi and Lake Charles,  with heavy rainfall (144 hours). This seem believable with the former cut-off low kicking out.

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The 12z Euro isn't buying what the NAM is showing either. May get a mix or something as the precip ends, and might get some stuff on the front end when the system over the SW kicks out.

 

Thanksgiving still looking seasonably cool. 

 

Looks like a stout -EPO long range on the GFS Ensembles. 

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Winter Weather Advisory is out for much of Kansas, as far SE as Fredonia and Chanute. Looks like 1/10" of ice is possible in this area, along with some sleet. Will be interesting to see if the NAM begins trending back toward the other models as it gets closer to the event or remains stubbornly the outlier.

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how do you tell the precip type on the Euro? I sure can't tell with the sleet/freezing rain, even with the hi-res information from Wunderground.

 

Don't think you can unless you have full access (you can get 850 MB temps). I was stating that it could start as a mix due to the similarity to the other models, temp/dewpoint spreads and the fact that it's on the WAA side of the ejecting system. With the NAM/GFS and maybe the GEM (i don't look at it often) you can see all the levels and their temps so you have a good idea on whether it will be all snow or not.

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Any thoughts on what the chances are of the southern piece of energy ejecting out of TX (nam hour 84) overriding the shallow air mass? If the air mass is indeed as shallow as they say it is, I don't see it forcing the precipitation away that quickly. I may be wrong but it looks more like the classic ice storm situation to me if surface temps remain low enough for a long enough period of time. Thoughts?

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Well that depends on if the NAM is right, which is a huge "if" since it's the NAM and it does pretty terribly most of the time. It does usually capture low level cold air better though so it will probably be more correct with regards to the frontal timing. I noticed the 00z GFS sped up the front when compared to todays 12z run. The big question will be if the NAM's more aggressive precipitation output is correct, or if the other models which have been more dry have the right idea. I know the NAM can be too wet at times, and I know the GFS can be too dry at times. Considering the NAM is an outlier right now, and that it is the NAM.. I'm not sure if I'd trust it with the heavier precip totals quite yet.

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Well that depends on if the NAM is right, which is a huge "if" since it's the NAM and it does pretty terribly most of the time. It does usually capture low level cold air better though so it will probably be more correct with regards to the frontal timing. I noticed the 00z GFS sped up the front when compared to todays 12z run. The big question will be if the NAM's more aggressive precipitation output is correct, or if the other models which have been more dry have the right idea. I know the NAM can be too wet at times, and I know the GFS can be too dry at times. Considering the NAM is an outlier right now, and that it is the NAM.. I'm not sure if I'd trust it with the heavier precip totals quite yet.

Very true. But as I don't really have access to a full ecmwf, somewhere between a gfs and a NAM is where I have to stay at. Lol. Planning on subscribing to a good model source very soon before this winter gets too crazy.

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I'm kind of thinking NE OK is gonna get dry-slotted and the main system is going to slide too far south for us.  In order for us to have a good storm, we have to have it go near the Texarkana area, and I don't see that happening.  If the NAM is any indication, we are going to be left out of the major snow accumulations (if there is any).  I like the look of the Canadian, but that's because it brings the low across in a more favorable position for NE folks to get in on the action.  I'm not sure why it does that, but take a look:f132.gif

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