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Wow..New Eurotrash clobbers Lakes Region Late Thanksgiving weekend

wxhstn74

By wxhstn74,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Nice, 12z GFS throws LAF a bone at the end. Some FZRN to boot. :arrowhead:

  HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb  MSLP  TCC PRS WX  Low      Middle     High     Max    Min  Sfc
               Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp    mb    %  TEXT   Clouds    Clouds    Clouds    Tmp    Tmp  Vis
  0 11/27 12Z   43     41     280       6    0.00  0.00    550    559    4.4 -14.9 1010.6   0          CLR       CLR       CLR    ****   ****  2.6
  6 11/27 18Z   43     39     318      10    0.11  0.00    545    556    0.2 -15.8 1014.5 100 -RA   016BKN046 145OVC233 233OVC318   45     42  2.1
 12 11/28 00Z   39     36     349       9    0.04  0.00    540    554   -2.2 -15.1 1017.1  99 -RA   019BKN078 156BKN232 232BKN307   43     39  1.3
 18 11/28 06Z   37     34       4       9    0.00  0.00    541    556   -3.3 -14.6 1018.5  99 -RA   031BKN070 166BKN231 232SCT285   39     37  1.9
 24 11/28 12Z   33     31      26       8    0.00  0.00    544    559    0.7 -14.0 1018.6  51       051FEW067 176SCT230 234SCT255   37     33  4.4
 30 11/28 18Z   39     31      20      12    0.00  0.00    550    563    3.0 -14.3 1016.9  89       059FEW080 183BKN234 234BKN292   39     33 18.4
 36 11/29 00Z   37     33      11      12    0.00  0.00    552    563    5.8 -14.2 1013.8  69 -RA   040FEW067 144SCT208 241SCT289   40     37  3.2
 42 11/29 06Z   37     35      13      15    0.24  0.00    553    561    6.6 -14.3 1009.9 100 -RA   018BKN099 133BKN232 237BKN344   37     37  1.0
 48 11/29 12Z   36     34       2      20    0.32  0.00    551    557    4.8 -15.5 1007.7 100 RA    018BKN110 124OVC218 234BKN323   37     36  1.2
 54 11/29 18Z   36     32     356      19    0.28  0.00    546    551    2.5 -16.2 1005.7 100 -RA   022BKN106 120OVC230 232BKN304   36     36  2.3
 60 11/30 00Z   34     32     327      18    0.47  0.00    540    547   -2.9 -19.7 1008.3 100 SN    040BKN108 117OVC229 229BKN307   36     34  0.5
 66 11/30 06Z   27     24     311      16    0.04  0.00    537    546   -2.1 -22.0 1011.6  86 -FZRN 034FEW112 129BKN214 237SCT302   34     27  3.5

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Much too bullish for us. I'd give us a 10% chance of seeing a snowflake at this point. ;)

Still think N IN/S 1/2 MI are in the game. Hopefully it delivers for them. :)

NAM is warmer than the GFS. GFS would support snow here by 60 hours while the NAM still has a warm layer aloft. We know how models struggle with magnitude of WAA, but being on the western side we don't have to worry about that. So the question becomes how fast we can cool the column in the presence of mod/heavy precip. I'm still thinking we see flakes, maybe even a decent burst to whiten the ground if things break right but not sold on anything more than that.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

I'm in the minority, but I'd love a December 2010 repeat. :P

I wouldnt mind it as much as most others in SE MI. We had the 6" snowstorm on the 12th that barely budged in depth of even beauty (outside of places near the roads) through Christmas. Yes, it was very quiet weatherwise but it was very festive to have a nice layer of snow down for the holidays (and it got very active after the new year!)

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Agreed. Looks like we get into -4C at 66 hours.

If we get an early changeover then the main mitigating factors left are warmish/wet ground and marginal BL temps. This may be less of an issue with northeastward extent given most favorable dynamics/bulk of heaviest precip rates coming well after sunset.

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kab2791

kab2791

Posted
Posted

Wow, congrats LAN on the Euro as well

WED 00Z 30-NOV   0.8    -0.2    1010      96     100    0.36     553     544    
WED 06Z 30-NOV   0.0    -3.7    1008      91     100    0.58     546     540    
WED 12Z 30-NOV  -1.4    -1.1    1009      76      77    0.41     544     537    
WED 18Z 30-NOV   1.7     0.8    1010      58      12    0.02     547     539

LAF

TUE 18Z 29-NOV   3.1    -0.2    1009      96     100    0.33     553     545    
WED 00Z 30-NOV   1.3    -3.7    1011      99     100    0.53     549     540    
WED 06Z 30-NOV   0.9    -4.1    1012      97      97    0.48     548     538

DTW

WED 06Z 30-NOV   1.6    -1.8    1004      97      68    0.24     543     540    
WED 12Z 30-NOV   0.3    -5.5    1005      89      98    0.23     541     537    
WED 18Z 30-NOV   1.1    -0.7    1009      58      35    0.15     546     538

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dmc76

dmc76

Posted
Posted

Wow, congrats LAN on the Euro as well

WED 00Z 30-NOV   0.8    -0.2    1010      96 	100    0.36 	553 	544    
WED 06Z 30-NOV   0.0    -3.7    1008      91 	100    0.58 	546 	540    
WED 12Z 30-NOV  -1.4    -1.1    1009      76      77    0.41 	544 	537    
WED 18Z 30-NOV   1.7 	0.8    1010      58      12    0.02 	547 	539

LAF

TUE 18Z 29-NOV   3.1    -0.2    1009      96 	100    0.33 	553 	545    
WED 00Z 30-NOV   1.3    -3.7    1011      99 	100    0.53 	549 	540    
WED 06Z 30-NOV   0.9    -4.1    1012      97      97    0.48 	548 	538

DTW

WED 06Z 30-NOV   1.6    -1.8    1004      97      68    0.24 	543 	540    
WED 12Z 30-NOV   0.3    -5.5    1005      89      98    0.23 	541 	537    
WED 18Z 30-NOV   1.1    -0.7    1009      58      35    0.15 	546 	538

How about PTK?

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AppsRunner

AppsRunner

Posted
Posted

I don't have access to soundings but the Euro actually looks like a decent hit for LAF.

over an inch of precip with 850s below 0, surface never gets below freezing though.

On another note looks like the HPC shifted the low track a little bit to the east. On the OH/PA border now compared to over CLE.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Surface temps blow, but everything else would normally be a go. Thanks for posting the information. :)

Hopefully the dynamics help out with cooling the BL some. Gonna be very interesting to watch how this plays out. If that shallow/stubborn warm layer gets driven out early enough this may be a hell of storm for you guys. Definitely looks good for central lower Michigan. I'm rooting for you guys! :thumbsup:

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wxhstn74

wxhstn74

Posted
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Posted

After many days of taunting & teasing snowstorm lovers with this system, models coming together for decent low /994-1000mb/ set up over Eastern Lakes, mainly over Lk Erie/Ontario and a great position for snows IF it were assuredly cold enough. Devil is in the details in the 1000-850 thks and 2 m temps which still look border line at least part of the time period. The positive is the nice cold core 500 MB lift to aid in precip/snowfall rates.In any event, a sloppy wet snow changeover and pcpn amounts continue to be impressive. Latest GFS has come around back to a bit colder solution for Tue night for some accumulating on grassy area snow over at least SE Michigan. Fun times continue..

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

After many days of taunting & teasing snowstorm lovers with this system, models coming together for decent low /994-1000mb/ set up over Eastern Lakes, mainly over Lk Erie/Ontario and a great position for snows IF it were assuredly cold enough. Devil is in the details in the 1000-850 thks and 2 m temps which still look border line at least part of the time period. The positive is the nice cold core 500 MB lift to aid in precip/snowfall rates.In any event, a sloppy,wet snow changeover and pcpn amounts continue to impressive. Latest GFS has come around back to a bit colder solution for Tue night for some accumulating on grassy area snow over at least SE Michigan. Fun times continue..

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

Now if only we could cement that track for the rest of the winter! :snowman::devilsmiley:

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Yep THE most important track and like the '70s...Ohio Valley Lows are in vogue but will she stay there? LOL

What I like about our region is that even if ALL else fails, we have the Alberta Clippers to fall back on. If im not mistaken (you would remember better than me), werent the '80s an Alberta Clipper paradise? We had 50-55" for 3 consecutive winters in the mid-80s without any real big snowstorms.

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