Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Could be #3 soon looking towards this weekend May have fallen short. Things tapering off now, probably ended up around 2"...maybe a hair more. Not sure about the weekend. Need a bit of a northward trend...which we do often get within 48 hrs...but still, could be close. I'd be much more comfy if I was sitting down by Poughkeepsie. But for today...I enjoyed the surprise. I was optimistic...but still didnt expect more than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just checked...Albany's #2 October snow looks like 2" on Oct 28, 1952...so today's should be very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just got back from a snow chase with my son. We drove up to 1640' on Pinnacle Rd. in the Helderbergs. Here are some highlights: 1) 6.5" of snow on the open grass at 1640' 2) 4" of snow on Pinnacle Rd. (opposite lane before plow came by) 2) Tree across rd. on Rt. 157 3) Car off road and into tree on Beaver Dam Rd. 4) Large town plow in front of me on the way back down Pinnacle Rd. skidded 45 degrees........ but then regained control. Roads were slick up there! Fun times!!!!! About 1.5" here in Slingerlands. Bring on Sat storm....liking 18Z GFS Ensembles!! (Hey...a guy can dream!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 I just measured exactly 4 inches here at 1k feet. This last burst is nearing it's end so that is about it. Oh and the NWS should have issued a winter wx advisory for Western Albany County. It's pretty clear that almost all areas met criteria and areas over 1500' exceeded it with ease. Just got back from a snow chase with my son. We drove up to 1640' on Pinnacle Rd. in the Helderbergs. Here are some highlights: 1) 6.5" of snow on the open grass at 1640' 2) 4" of snow on Pinnacle Rd. (opposite lane before plow came by) 2) Tree across rd. on Rt. 157 3) Car off road and into tree on Beaver Dam Rd. 4) Large town plow in front of me on the way back down Pinnacle Rd. skidded 45 degrees........ but then regained control. Roads were slick up there! Fun times!!!!! About 1.5" here in Slingerlands. Bring on Sat storm....liking 18Z GFS Ensembles!! (Hey...a guy can dream!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Less than an inch here......all on unpaved surfaces. Just enough to make it look like winter. I can't believe ENY is now in the game for storm# 2!!! I will be going down to my southern command post in the hills of Monroe about 2 mi. South of NYT exit 16. Got some good elevation down there and I am expecting to see an event that will be historical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 final total of 2.1" here.. better than expected! regarding the storm this weekend.. 21z SREF's look better but the 00z nam went a little southeast. the 00z euro tonight should be telling now that we're within 48 hours.. hopefully west of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 0Z GFS had a solid .75" to ALB, drop off N/W. This is reminding me a lot of the so called Boxing Day storm last 12/26. Heaviest hit to out southeast, but maybe a good storm back as far as KALB. Obviously touch and go...we await the Euro. final total of 2.1" here.. better than expected! regarding the storm this weekend.. 21z SREF's look better but the 00z nam went a little southeast. the 00z euro tonight should be telling now that we're within 48 hours.. hopefully west of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 0Z GFS had a solid .75" to ALB, drop off N/W. This is reminding me a lot of the so called Boxing Day storm last 12/26. Heaviest hit to out southeast, but maybe a good storm back as far as KALB. Obviously touch and go...we await the Euro. 00z GFS ensembles appear to be west of the OP.. basically its the GFS/ensembles vs. nam/ukie/canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 00z GFS ensembles appear to be west of the OP.. basically its the GFS/ensembles vs. nam/ukie/canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 2" on elevated surfaces (deck, cars, etc.) and 4" on the grass at 6:30 last night. Another 1" overnight. I'm calling it 3" for my records. Plenty of snow for the 3 kids at my house (my 2 kids and me) to have a snowball fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 4 inches measured on my new deck. That's gonna be nice when we get storms where wind isn't a factor. When it's windy forget it ....will blow way too much there. 2" on elevated surfaces (deck, cars, etc.) and 4" on the grass at 6:30 last night. Another 1" overnight. I'm calling it 3" for my records. Plenty of snow for the 3 kids at my house (my 2 kids and me) to have a snowball fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'll reboot this topic ..... and make it focused on tomorrow's Nor'easter... The 12Z NAM just joined the GFS in getting heavy snow to just about the CD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'll reboot this topic ..... and make it focused on tomorrow's Nor'easter... The 12Z NAM just joined the GFS in getting heavy snow to just about the CD. You threw me off...I started a new thread and you changed the topic...then saw this thread and wondered how I missed it. Anyway...Albany NWS just hoisted WSWs for S & E portions of their CWS. 12z trended north. Hopefully that sets the trend for the rest of the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Still a shade under 32F here now at 11 AM.... Snow cover is a beautiful thing. I'm sure much of it in the sun will melt this afternoon..... I definitely like the trend here. When the SREF's started coming so decisively north last night that was a pretty good clue that the NAM was too flat. You threw me off...I started a new thread and you changed the topic...then saw this thread and wondered how I missed it. Anyway...Albany NWS just hoisted WSWs for S & E portions of their CWS. 12z trended north. Hopefully that sets the trend for the rest of the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 For most of upstate NY to get more than a few inches, we need a little bit more of a westward shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 For most of upstate NY to get more than a few inches, we need a little bit more of a westward shift. We're getting close I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We're getting close I think. The GFS looks to spread snow showers all across NY, with 1-3 inches in Ithaca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think this will be a lot like the Boxing Day 12/26 event, unless it shifts further west. Use that as a general guide maybe. I got 9" in that and ALB east got 12" + Another shift west could get the good stuff back to like Cooperstown to the western Mohawk Valley I suppose..... but I don't see any mechanism for it to ever go more west than that. If I were betting I'd say they hone in around where the 12Z GFS is now. The GFS looks to spread snow showers all across NY, with 1-3 inches in Ithaca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I believe I only had about 6" IMBY on 12/26. And I'm only about 10 or 12 miles northwest of you. That was a very tight snowfall gradient indeed. I think this will be a lot like the Boxing Day 12/26 event, unless it shifts further west. Use that as a general guide maybe. I got 9" in that and ALB east got 12" + Another shift west could get the good stuff back to like Cooperstown to the western Mohawk Valley I suppose..... but I don't see any mechanism for it to ever go more west than that. If I were betting I'd say they hone in around where the 12Z GFS is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conclue Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Even though this has been in the works for a few days I'm still so suprised by it. The snowfall yesterday was kinda surreal. I woke up this morning and saw the winter storm watch on my TWC app when I first woke up with my morning cig, as I was brewing my coffee and headed to see what the guys at NWS Alb were thinking today with the latest runs. Can't believe we're gonna have inces of snow tomorrow! CRAZY! I thought yesterday was an anomaly! WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like the latest SREFs have taken another northward jog. Total precip panel not out yet...but just by eyeballing, the ensemble average is gonna be 1.1-1.2" around Albany. Previous run was about 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Winter Storm Warnings creeping into our area. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/bgm/ Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY259 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011...AN EARLY SEASON SNOWSTORM IS ON THE WAY....LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLATE TONIGHT AND THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THECOAST ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY WET SNOW...FROM EARLYSATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING...FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER ANDCATSKILLS OF NEW YORK...AND FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.NYZ057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-291900-/O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0008.111029T0900Z-111030T0300Z//O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0009.111029T1200Z-111030T0600Z/DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALTON...DELHI...MONTICELLO...TOWANDA...SAYRE...MONTROSE...TUNKHANNOCK...SCRANTON...WILKES-BARRE...HAZLETON...MILFORD...HONESDALE259 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDTSUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAYTO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...THE WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK AND FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS.* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH UP TO 12 INCHES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. THE DEEPER VALLEYS WILL SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN SATURDAY MORNING AND TAPER OFF EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES. ALSO...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER THE HILL AND MOUNTAIN TOPS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSOPOSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.PLEASE REPORT SNOWFALL AND/OR ICE AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHERSERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL [email protected]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Here's the 15z SREF total QPF Compared to 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Ithaca looks good for 1-3 inches, perhaps more on the few spots near 1000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS holds west, .25 to .5 inches for Tompkins County and other parts of central NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well this IS coming. My new forecast technique/tool says its a hit for all! This new tool is my surgically repaired hand and wrist and its killing me tonight! Here is what Cap is thinking and I and TG more or less agree...perhaps amts to the NW of Albany are a bit high but looking at SREF from 15z are showing these areas may get what is forecast: As TG (Tornado Girl) mentioned elsewhere - there will be some amts 15 inches (even a lolli or two greater) over the highest peaks of NEPA/NWNJ/ENY/ AND / WNE. All models have excellent comma head, def zone for ENY and WNE/SNE. Good signals too for nice convective band snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well this IS coming. My new forecast technique/tool says its a hit for all! This new tool is my surgically repaired hand and wrist and its killing me tonight! Here is what Cap is thinking and I and TG more or less agree...perhaps amts to the NW of Albany are a bit high but looking at SREF from 15z are showing these areas may get what is forecast: As TG (Tornado Girl) mentioned elsewhere - there will be some amts 15 inches (even a lolli or two greater) over the highest peaks of NEPA/NWNJ/ENY/ AND / WNE. All models have excellent comma head, def zone for ENY and WNE/SNE. Good signals too for nice convective band snow. Hey Andy! Great map! And your totals for out this way certainly, at least is warranted due to the GFSE members/mean! I cannot remember a series of ensemble runs (over the last few) that have consistently been west of the OP.....Maybe it means squat, but seems everything has been trending towards them, while they/it hold steady! Good luck, and charge all your devices! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 4-8 inches in the lake georeg area? I was thinking more likey 1-3 but good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Well this IS coming. My new forecast technique/tool says its a hit for all! This new tool is my surgically repaired hand and wrist and its killing me tonight! Here is what Cap is thinking and I and TG more or less agree...perhaps amts to the NW of Albany are a bit high but looking at SREF from 15z are showing these areas may get what is forecast: As TG (Tornado Girl) mentioned elsewhere - there will be some amts 15 inches (even a lolli or two greater) over the highest peaks of NEPA/NWNJ/ENY/ AND / WNE. All models have excellent comma head, def zone for ENY and WNE/SNE. Good signals too for nice convective band snow. 4-8 definitely looking like a good call for capital region. Albany needs about 5" for this to become the snowiest October on record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 4-8 definitely looking like a good call for capital region. Albany needs about 5" for this to become the snowiest October on record I was in my 2nd year at SUNYA in '87....I remember Mike Landin "joking" a bit as the NGM came in ...hinting at the possibility of a bit of a mix, the evening before the October surprise, about if anyone was going to put a "1" in the snowfall box of our forecast contest......if I recall one or two folks did....everyone else put in the almost obligatory "0"...... 6+" later, we realized just how poor our "go to " model was!! (vs. the LFM) Good memories! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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