Avdave Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Misting up here. Although looking at radar looks like we may get a decent soaking from the line in VA. It is heading your way, Im near KJYO and we have had steady rain here now .07 in the last 20 mins or so. More to fall. 61* up to .42 for the day now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 It is heading your way, Im near KJYO and we have had steady rain here now .07 in the last 20 mins or so. More to fall. 61* up to .42 for the day now Yep pouring hard up here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 It seems like every week there is a big slow moving ull in the midwest. Almost in the exact same location too. I hope this trend ends before winter begins. I can't remember the last time we have had such a string of these things. Such a weird pattern for fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2267 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0526 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...SERN VA...SERN MD/DE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 192226Z - 200030Z A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH EVENING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LOW. A LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS CNTRL INTO SRN NC...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT ALOFT. THESE STORMS HAVE SHOWN SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL ROTATION AT TIMES...DRIVEN BY THE COMBINATION OF STRONG FORCING AND AMPLE SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. OTHER STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER NERN NC...DEEPER INTO THE SURFACE MOIST AXIS. HERE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EVEN BETTER THAN FARTHER SW. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE ENVIRONMENT IS THERMODYNAMIC IN NATURE...WITH VERY POOR LOW TO MID LAPSE RATE PROFILES DUE TO LITTLE SURFACE HEATING AND WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT. INDEED...NONE OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION EVEN HAS LIGHTNING...SUGGESTING UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS WEAK AS WELL. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK...AND UPWARD ACCELERATION/STRETCHING POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED...SOME OF THE DEEPER STORMS MAY AT LEAST BE CAPABLE OF STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO STILL MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRYLINE STORMS AS THEY CONTINUE NEWD INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS WARMING ALOFT WILL WORK AGAINST TORNADO POTENTIAL. AS SUCH...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..JEWELL.. 10/19/2011 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34147883 34937899 35527912 36097879 37027798 37677720 38357669 38437574 38017515 37057581 36227562 35567541 35167546 34467662 34217744 34147883 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Yep pouring hard up here now. .85 here now since midnight. about a third since this batch of rain started a while ago. Yeah radar looks good up towards FDK. The real good stuff was just slightly to my west and then expanded near Lucketts and then up to Frederick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Damn, it is humid out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Very nice day for the bucket 1.04 since midnight. 62* with a DP of 62, ugh outside Should be the last of any decent rains, probably just mist and fog for the remainder of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 have been getting a steady, drenching rain for the past hour and nothing on radar, not sure why that is. 0.09" in the past hr, 0.61" for the event total. Also the DP is 65 degrees, temp is 66 degrees. Nastiness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 have been getting a steady, drenching rain for the past hour and nothing on radar, not sure why that is. 0.09" in the past hr, 0.61" for the event total. Also the DP is 65 degrees, temp is 66 degrees. Nastiness Overcast at 600' at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Overcast at 600' at DCA. Has abated, but if that was the ob for that time frame then it makes no sense, all wxbug stations from here to Brookmont & North to congressional country club picked up an extra .10" or so after 7PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 20, 2011 Author Share Posted October 20, 2011 Wouldn't have even bothered to make this thread had it not been for the SPC forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Has abated, but if that was the ob for that time frame then it makes no sense, all wxbug stations from here to Brookmont & North to congressional country club picked up an extra .10" or so after 7PM Point was that the cloud base was so low that the radar may have overshot the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Point was that the cloud base was so low that the radar may have overshot the precip. That's somewhat emberassing, never thought it worked like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 That's somewhat emberassing, never thought it worked like that. And I can't be sure that was the problem, but there is definitely a chance. It would almost never be a problem in Bethesda since LWX is only 19 miles away, but the cloud bases were ridiculously low yesterday. At the 0.5° scan, the center of the beam would be 1154' above sea level over Bethesda (875' if I remember high school trig, plus the 279' elevation of the radar). If the ceiling was indeed 600' at DCA (near sea level), you can see where the problem lies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 And I can't be sure that was the problem, but there is definitely a chance. It would almost never be a problem in Bethesda since LWX is only 19 miles away, but the cloud bases were ridiculously low yesterday. At the 0.5° scan, the center of the beam would be 1154' above sea level over Bethesda (875' if I remember high school trig, plus the 279' elevation of the radar). If the ceiling was indeed 600' at DCA (near sea level), you can see where the problem lies. Ah thanks makes sense. I knew nothing about how satellite radar operates. Theres another one for the book of BB screwups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Ah thanks makes sense. I knew nothing about how satellite radar operates. Theres another one for the book of BB screwups. Not satellite radar...he's talking about the normal radar at LWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 have been getting a steady, drenching rain for the past hour and nothing on radar, not sure why that is. 0.09" in the past hr, 0.61" for the event total. Also the DP is 65 degrees, temp is 66 degrees. Nastiness We have that a lot up in eastern areas of SNE. Many times when we have warm moist air override the cooler air at the surface and a ne wind..we get this low top, but very efficient rain process. Droplet size is small, but it adds up. That happens a lot with a very warm and most airmass if you don't have strong updrafts and the cloud is warm (below 32F)...but collision and coalescence allows many small droplets to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Not satellite radar...he's talking about the normal radar at LWX. Add another one But finally got some sleep after 4 straight without. I suck at calculus in case you're wondering why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 We have that a lot up in eastern areas of SNE. Many times when we have warm moist air override the cooler air at the surface and a ne wind..we get this low top, but very efficient rain process. Droplet size is small, but it adds up. That happens a lot with a very warm and most airmass if you don't have strong updrafts and the cloud is warm (below 32F)...but collision and coalescence allows many small droplets to form. Thanks a bunch for the knowledge, makes sense now. Reminds me of my years in Seattle though not sure if it's the same process? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.