Revracer800 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 If your saying that black hole needs to move 10-15 miles north then i'm gonna be close to the jackpot then with heavy snow. I'm in the extreme southwest corner of oswego county in Hannibal and i would love to pick up a nice 12'+ bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'd like to get a foot out of this lol. I can see maybe 10" being realistic. Hope we all get 100" haha... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 My earlier post: The latest mesos show the heaviest portions JUST to the south of the city proper, however, I believe this to be too far south....sounds homerish, and a little "stupid" due to last week a similar scenario in model world played out and verification came in further SW than the mesos had show 18 hours in advance. The connection will be strong to Geo Bay, and when that scenario plays out, the band tends to "pull across" L. Ontario a bit more (ie not as much "cyclonic curve"), and that generally translates to a further NE placement to the most intense part of the band. I think the city itself, and maybe into the airport where the stats are kept, will be pounded. I also note that the s/w dropping around our gyre looks stronger than the models are progging it to be (winds are backing ahead of it pretty good). Look for the NAM based mesos to catch on to my though over the next couple runs. If your saying that black hole needs to move 10-15 miles north then i'm gonna be close to the jackpot then with heavy snow. I'm in the extreme southwest corner of oswego county in Hannibal and i would love to pick up a nice 12'+ bring it on. Like clockwork, (only one of the 12z meso's have come in, but they generally follow tightly together) the main axis of max qpf in the band has shifted northward in: 06z run (previous): 12z run (current): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danno Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Continue to get pounded with lake effect in western Onondaga County. Left Syracuse at 5 pm yesterday with just a few inches on the car from all day yesterday. So, was quite surprised to find 12" in my driveway, and another 6" overnight last night, and if meso is ciorrect, it looks kind of crazy for this afternoon and tonight. Radar is just beginning to pick up those yellows again. Looks like more roof clearing in my future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Was the northward shift bad for SYR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Was the northward shift bad for SYR? No, should put downtown in the jackpot....it's bad for the southern portions of the county. Oh, and here is the new bmj meso (the same as the 06z one that I referenced earlier.: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I like that latest run much better. Looks to be some nice "pent up" energy over the lake that just may make to to my house late on Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 No, should put downtown in the jackpot....it's bad for the southern portions of the county. Oh, and here is the new bmj meso (the same as the 06z one that I referenced earlier.: Sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 LES Advisory up for Niagara frontier updated AFD from NWS “SATURDAY ALSO LOOK QUIET…ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER LAKES. AT FIRST GLANCE IT LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SAILING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS IN SEASONABLE L30S…BUT CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BIT OF LAKE RESPONSE NE OF THE LAKES WITH DECENT MOISTURE…LITTLE SHEAR AND 850 MB TEMPS OF -9C OR SO. NAM12 ACTUALLY BRINGS SOME ACCUM INTO BUF AND ART…BUT WITH SNOW GROWTH PARAMETERS UNFAVORABLE…WILL DOWNPLAY AND JUST CARRY LOW CHC POPS FOR SAT BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT AS THESE VERY SUBTLE THINGS CAN SURPRISE US.” “FIRST THOUGH…WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE NEXT SFC LOW WHICH WILL LIFT UP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY BOMB OUT OFF NEW ENG LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THIS STORM WILL BE…WITH GFS/GEM HOLDING IT CLOSE AND GIVING EASTERN NEW ENG HEAVY SNOW…WHICH IN TURN WOULD LEAVE A RIDGE OVER OUR REGION…LEAVING US TOTALLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. 12Z ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND TAKES THE STORM FURTHER EAST…JUST BRUSHING NEW ENG AND ALLOWING A TROUGH TO DROP INTO THE UPPER LAKES…WHICH IN TURN COULD SET OFF SOME LIMITED LAKE SNOWS AGAIN FOR US LATER SUN/SUN NT ON A W-SW FLOW. TEMPS WOULD STILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH…SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD POPS AT 20 SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -10C TO -12C SUPPORTING U20S/NR 30…STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Very interesting AFD from BUF this afternoon. A couple things stand out for me in terms of how bottled up this current pattern is with the high latitude blocking: * We have a LES advisory up in N Erie county for a lake effect snow band expected to lift north from the southern tier/ski country on a northwest wind. Wierd... * The flow by early next week is forecast to be from the N/NW, which will of course result in a warming trend. Wierder.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Very interesting AFD from BUF this afternoon. A couple things stand out for me in terms of how bottled up this current pattern is with the high latitude blocking: * We have a LES advisory up in N Erie county for a lake effect snow band expected to lift north from the southern tier/ski country on a northwest wind. Wierd... * The flow by early next week is forecast to be from the N/NW, which will of course result in a warming trend. Wierder.... lol thank la nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Hoping that some hints of lake effect make it down the Mohawk Valley and get in to the Capital District tonight and tomorrow morning. Looks like we could get an inch or so . We're struggling this year so far with just .5" on the ground right now. So my kids are itching to get out the new snowshoes and x/c skis this weekend. Can you guys recommend a nice hilly state park or wilderness area out in central New York that is about 2 hours from Albany where we could play this weekend....somewhere that's should get pounded with LES this week? Normally I would go to the Western DAKS, but you guys seem to be raking it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Just got home!!!!! (normal travel time from work to home is 20 minutes....took 1.75 hours. Snowfall rates had to be approaching 3-4"/hr. It has calmed down a bit. Quick measurement was 12" in the driveway (cleaned this morning)....going to go check my snow board.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 5" last 2 hours....not including this in total for "this" event....I have 16" since Monday night.....12" of that today....before this latest insane blast!! Keep 'er coming!! The airport will be over 70" by the end of tomorrow, I'm sure of it.....Can't remember such a wintery autum!!!! Still snowing at around 2"/hr.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Past few hours been getting pounded. Has let up a bit though. Closing in on the snowiest December ever for Syracuse. It's been an amazing month so far. Winter hasn't even started yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 5" last 2 hours....not including this in total for "this" event....I have 16" since Monday night.....12" of that today....before this latest insane blast!! Keep 'er coming!! The airport will be over 70" by the end of tomorrow, I'm sure of it.....Can't remember such a wintery autum!!!! Still snowing at around 2"/hr.... George...this is SYRMAX....took a break for a while to concentrate on stock trading for a while...new nick but I'm baaaack. Nice week or so of snow. eh? 11" IMBY at 7pm...just snowblowed...another 1-2 already back on. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The Georgian Bay/Huron band is absolutely lighting up over the Niagara Frontier right now, I did not see this coming. Unfortunately I am lying right in between bands in a brutal snow hole right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 George...this is SYRMAX....took a break for a while to concentrate on stock trading for a while...new nick but I'm baaaack. Nice week or so of snow. eh? 11" IMBY at 7pm...just snowblowed...another 1-2 already back on. Unreal. Brian!!!!!!! Missed you bud....I would say I hope your stock endeavors have done you well, but I'm sure they did! Getting pounded here!! Feels like Parish!! New statement by NWS BGM: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 913 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010 NYZ018-036-044-045-160345- CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-MADISON NY-ONONDAGA NY- 913 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA... * AT 908 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ACROSS PARTS OF CHENANGO... NORTHEASTERN CORTLAND...ONONDAGA AND WESTERN MADISON COUNTIES. SNOWFALL RATES IN THE BAND WILL BE 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SYRACUSE METRO AREA. * LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE EFFECTED BY THE SNOW BANDS INCLUDE BALDWINSVILLE...BRIDGEPORT...CAZENOVIA...CHITTENANGO...CICERO... CLAY...DE WITT...FAIRMOUNT...LA FAYETTE...LIVERPOOL...MANLIUS... NEDROW...NORWICH...OTSELIC...OXFORD...SHERBURNE...SULLIVAN AND SYRACUSE. ROADS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS AND SLIPPERY. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SYRACUSE METRO AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Brian!!!!!!! Missed you bud....I would say I hope your stock endeavors have done you well, but I'm sure they did! Getting pounded here!! Feels like Parish!! New statement by NWS BGM: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 913 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010 NYZ018-036-044-045-160345- CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-MADISON NY-ONONDAGA NY- 913 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA... * AT 908 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ACROSS PARTS OF CHENANGO... NORTHEASTERN CORTLAND...ONONDAGA AND WESTERN MADISON COUNTIES. SNOWFALL RATES IN THE BAND WILL BE 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SYRACUSE METRO AREA. * LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE EFFECTED BY THE SNOW BANDS INCLUDE BALDWINSVILLE...BRIDGEPORT...CAZENOVIA...CHITTENANGO...CICERO... CLAY...DE WITT...FAIRMOUNT...LA FAYETTE...LIVERPOOL...MANLIUS... NEDROW...NORWICH...OTSELIC...OXFORD...SHERBURNE...SULLIVAN AND SYRACUSE. ROADS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS AND SLIPPERY. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. Good to be back...NWS radar really isn't doing this justice...as usual WSYR9 radar much better locally. And LOL at BGM's radar being toast during the epic event last week. Murphy's Law proven again. I think I just passed 70" for the "season"....and its not even winter yet. Who'da thunk it? I measured 52" cumulative during last weeks Festivus. Nice discussion on the lake bands being distorted by the flow along the lake - you're one of the few I've read that knows the tendencies of some of the meso phenomena associated w/ L.Ontario LES. KBGM also has a few interesting LES studies that I've looked at over the years, discussing convergence phenomena east & SE of the lake. Speaking of WSYR's website. What's wrong w/ it...the radar displays are all shifted to the right on the webpage and its AFU looking. I'm on a Mac but even the windows PC side has the same effect. Anyone else experience this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Good to be back...NWS radar really isn't doing this justice...as usual WSYR9 radar much better locally. And LOL at BGM's radar being toast during the epic event last week. Murphy's Law proven again. I think I just passed 70" for the "season"....and its not even winter yet. Who'da thunk it? I measured 52" cumulative during last weeks Festivus. Nice discussion on the lake bands being distorted by the flow along the lake - you're one of the few I've read that knows the tendencies of some of the meso phenomena associated w/ L.Ontario LES. KBGM also has a few interesting LES studies that I've looked at over the years, discussing convergence phenomena east & SE of the lake. Speaking of WSYR's website. What's wrong w/ it...the radar displays are all shifted to the right on the webpage and its AFU looking. I'm on a Mac but even the windows PC side has the same effect. Anyone else experience this? No issues here....looks fine...lots of yellow and some orange!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Lots of yellow popping up all over the radar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 3/4 inch fluff has been deposited on me ...120 miles from the lake. I accept it of course. The next 36 hours could be decent here with that current fetch. Sometimes it will sink south of me and sometimes back in here. This far from the lake it is as if the bands kind of undulate in the wind. Good to be back...NWS radar really isn't doing this justice...as usual WSYR9 radar much better locally. And LOL at BGM's radar being toast during the epic event last week. Murphy's Law proven again. I think I just passed 70" for the "season"....and its not even winter yet. Who'da thunk it? I measured 52" cumulative during last weeks Festivus. Nice discussion on the lake bands being distorted by the flow along the lake - you're one of the few I've read that knows the tendencies of some of the meso phenomena associated w/ L.Ontario LES. KBGM also has a few interesting LES studies that I've looked at over the years, discussing convergence phenomena east & SE of the lake. Speaking of WSYR's website. What's wrong w/ it...the radar displays are all shifted to the right on the webpage and its AFU looking. I'm on a Mac but even the windows PC side has the same effect. Anyone else experience this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looks like I will pick up about an inch tonight...and maybe 6-8 inches tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danno Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 [speaking of WSYR's website. What's wrong w/ it...the radar displays are all shifted to the right on the webpage and its AFU looking. I'm on a Mac but even the windows PC side has the same effect. Anyone else experience this? Sometimes I can't link to the WSYR radar from the home page. But, have more luck if I go to their weather page and scroll down to their radars. Went out with the family this afternoon to cut down our christmas tree out of the back yard in one heck of a whiteout. Tough work hauling the tree through the field with snow up to my waist:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looks like I will pick up about an inch tonight...and maybe 6-8 inches tomorrow. Yeah, looks that way. Models have really been struggling in the latter portions of the run, due to the mother models having issues with the splitting/movement of the big h500 UL over the northeast/S. Canada. Good luck! Could be a bigger event than you think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 [speaking of WSYR's website. What's wrong w/ it...the radar displays are all shifted to the right on the webpage and its AFU looking. I'm on a Mac but even the windows PC side has the same effect. Anyone else experience this? Sometimes I can't link to the WSYR radar from the home page. But, have more luck if I go to their weather page and scroll down to their radars. Went out with the family this afternoon to cut down our christmas tree out of the back yard in one heck of a whiteout. Tough work hauling the tree through the field with snow up to my waist:) Nice! I always wait for a snow chance to get our tree....not sure 2-3"/hr. is "off the wall fun" but a nice picturesque snow makes for a nice family memory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 In the dark yellows now getting absolutely pounded! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Getting the shaft here in southern oswego county the band is to far south just a few flurries and very windy. Maybe overnight it will move north and i'll be in the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Both the Huron band and the Geo. Bay band have now connected to the Ontario band. There has been an "explosion" over central L. Ontario over the last 30 minutes, and immediately the band off the lake has intensified and consolidated. It will move northward and be extreme over the next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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