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Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)


Ian

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Heh.. Naa. I try to shut weenies up, not get them excited. ;) Tho I do like a Gulf scenario in some fashion.

Thank God. Tell whoever is doing it (Samenow?) to knock it off :P Absolutely no reason to give the general public the idea of a Major in the Carib/Gulf when the much more realistic forecasts call for anywhere from a strong TS (NHC) to a strong Cat. 1 (Cat. 2 could be stretching it unless Irene avoids most of the land masses).

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Thank God. Tell whoever is doing it (Samenow?) to knock it off :P Absolutely no reason to give the general public the idea of a Major in the Carib/Gulf when the much more realistic forecasts call for anywhere from a strong TS (NHC) to a strong Cat. 1 (Cat. 2 could be stretching it unless Irene avoids most of the land masses).

I don't disagree with your thoughts much if at all. Intrigue sells, sadly. Any mention of the GFDL/HWRF should be footnoted at least that they love to go bonkers and are usually wrong.

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For those who are wondering WTF is going on:

post-96-0-09966000-1313899949.png

post-96-0-93821100-1313899955.png

I know I'm a little harsh going into it like that, but when you lead off talking about the possibility of a Cat. 4/5 with no mention of the NHC forecast of a high-end TS or that fact that most models indicate a much weaker system... that just can't stand.

EDIT: With my first post I had to delete and re-post to fix a big grammar error... looks like someone got in a response before I got the re-post done :P

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East is bad at this range IMO

Agreed...but i don't know if this is a typical recurve scenario...both the central US heat ridge and the atlantic ridge are pretty strong...i think the uncertainty here is in both directions on the track depending on the exact axis of the weakness between the two...but you're right i'd rather it be out to the west of us at Day 5

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Agreed...but i don't know if this is a typical recurve scenario...both the central US heat ridge and the atlantic ridge are pretty strong...i think the uncertainty here is in both directions on the track depending on the exact axis of the weakness between the two...but you're right i'd rather it be out to the west of us at Day 5

Why is that? Better chance for rain?

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Why is that? Better chance for rain?

I would just say at this point there is an equal chance that the track trend could be either further west or further east....for this particular setup..i want to see how the 12z ensembles shifted...

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Agreed...but i don't know if this is a typical recurve scenario...both the central US heat ridge and the atlantic ridge are pretty strong...i think the uncertainty here is in both directions on the track depending on the exact axis of the weakness between the two...but you're right i'd rather it be out to the west of us at Day 5

Depends on if you want gusty winds/tornadoes or heavy rain. It's hard for remnants to give us both. Isabel was not a big rain producer for us, but it was for areas to the west of the center. Fran also was spotty in rain coverage east of the center (big difference between DCA and IAD) and will be remembered here for the winds and storm surge. But, too far west of us like in Opal, Frances, and Katrina and we 'just' end up seeing a few spin-ups, gusty winds, and not much rain. Ivan's big tornado outbreak happened while the center was to our SW. Jeanne, Hannah, Floyd, and Bertha were mostly remembered for the rain as they tracked east of us. Charley was too small to get us with much rain even though it was fairly close to the east.

David was a good combo of both.

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