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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part IV


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At this point, just to increase the numbers a bit more, I hope Rina dissipates and the remnants of former 97L ingest some of the vorticity from Rina, giving it a boost to develop. A lot of the models still keep Rina as the dominate feature, but I wouldn't be surprised if the larger broader circulation of 97L has a say in this.

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At this point, just to increase the numbers a bit more, I hope Rina dissipates and the remnants of former 97L ingest some of the vorticity from Rina, giving it a boost to develop. A lot of the models still keep Rina as the dominate feature, but I wouldn't be surprised if the larger broader circulation of 97L has a say in this.

Sicko.

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We are in the last gasps of the season, and though there is something hybrid in the 0z Euro, it's far enough in time and with no other model support that I will ignore it for the time being.

Some useless trivia:

* The Atlantic basin is the only major basin without very low latitude majors (<10 for the N hemisphere and >-10 for the S hemi), even the N IO and the CPac have one each.

* SC Graham '91 is the only very low latitude cat 5 (SS equivalent)

* STY Owen '90 is the lowest latitude major @ 7.4N

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We are in the last gasps of the season, and though there is something hybrid in the 0z Euro, it's far enough in time and with no other model support that I will ignore it for the time being.

Some useless trivia:

* The Atlantic basin is the only major basin without very low latitude majors (<10 for the N hemisphere and >-10 for the S hemi), even the N IO and the CPac have one each.

* SC Graham '91 is the only very low latitude cat 5 (SS equivalent)

* STY Owen '90 is the lowest latitude major @ 7.4N

And TS Vamei was the closest TS to the Equator (1.5N).

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QBO ;)

Disagree. The start of the season could certainly be active, but I think we'll see an early end (very much in contrary to 2005), as QBO easterlies descend, imposing warm stratospheric temperature anomalies off the equator.

I'm sticking with the numbers I posted in February: 14/8/5, with 12 storms between June-September

time_pres_UGRD_ANOM_ALL_EQ_2011.gif

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The Gulf of Honduras disturbance is better organized, and some turning is evident, though it's still lacking a closed center. As the trough to it's north depart, the ridge over MX will build East slowly, imparting a W to WSW motion to the disturbance (centered rougly over Roatan Is.). It probably has no more than 24 hours before most of the low goes over land. Because of the sprawling nature of the low and little time to organize before it's over land, I expect no further development of this disturbance.

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The Gulf of Honduras disturbance is better organized, and some turning is evident, though it's still lacking a closed center. As the trough to it's north depart, the ridge over MX will build East slowly, imparting a W to WSW motion to the disturbance (centered rougly over Roatan Is.). It probably has no more than 24 hours before most of the low goes over land. Because of the sprawling nature of the low and little time to organize before it's over land, I expect no further development of this disturbance.

:rolleyes:

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It's been in the models since Tuesday. Hard to get too excited about it.

:lmao:

Well, it doesn't look to get too amazing and not a land threat, but somehow an STD/Sean, originating in the Carolinas, in November, well, yes, it is getting time to look elsewhere in the Southern Hemisphere and there is the Day 4 or Day 5 severe threat, (SPC makes me angry dropping Monday risk area for DFW), but it'd still be cool. Especially if they named it STS Sean, send an aircraft, and find only reliable 30 knot winds. I want an STD Sean.

Edit to Add- does JB read my posts at American or what?

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Hybrid howler will form off Bahamas early next week, could evolve into classified storm off east coast.

post-138-0-23877000-1320408759.gif

post-138-0-99327400-1320408774.jpg

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Well, it doesn't look to get too amazing and not a land threat, but somehow an STD/Sean, originating in the Carolinas, in November, well, yes, it is getting time to look elsewhere in the Southern Hemisphere and there is the Day 4 or Day 5 severe threat, (SPC makes me angry dropping Monday risk area for DFW), but it'd still be cool. Especially if they named it STS Sean, send an aircraft, and find only reliable 30 knot winds. I want an STD, Sean.

Edit to Add- does JB read my posts at American or what?

But you haven't even bought me a bourbon yet? :unsure:

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Whatever it is it's not tropical, but:

The Carnival Pride will be significantly delayed arriving from her current voyage as it is encountering very poor, unexpected weather conditions on its way back to Baltimore. The Captain has been forced to reduce the ship’s cruising speed and given the present weather conditions, we are unable dock until late Sunday night. Guests on the current voyage will be able to debark on Sunday from 8PM to 10PM or on Monday morning from 7AM – 9AM.

I think the Pride is on its way between Freeport and (obviously) Baltimore. I did't even know there was anything going on there.

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Whatever it is it's not tropical, but:

I think the Pride is on its way between Freeport and (obviously) Baltimore. I did't even know there was anything going on there.

What is it with these freaking cruise ships and the "unexpected" poor marine conditions. With the access to data that's out there, it sounds more like CYA for ship captains making poor decisions.

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What is it with these freaking cruise ships and the "unexpected" poor marine conditions. With the access to data that's out there, it sounds more like CYA for ship captains making poor decisions.

Maybe all the cruise line subscribe to AccuWeather?

Seriously though, I suspect you have a highly competitive industry with slim profit margins, requiring precise scheduling and rapid turn-around between cruises, and also a public that expects a cruise to have precise scheduling (because so many people are arriving/departing for the cruise by air travel) leading to intense pressure on the captains to stick to the schedule/itinerary.

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