ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 I think the snowcover should build up nicely in the next 2 weeks, with the Canadian side perhaps building quickly too. Yeah it looks good over the next week or so for building up snow pack. We've seen some good gains even in the last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 looks substantially below average to me although this is Oct 5. Also the NH as a whole is below average. http://climate.rutge...ay=281&ui_set=2 Substantially? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 http://climate.rutge...ay=281&ui_set=2 Substantially? Yeah I'd call that substantially.. it usually doesn't depart from climo too much in October so to see widespread reds like that is a pretty big anomaly. Especially considering the reds are in the critical Eurasia area. It can change rapidly in October though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Yeah I'd call that substantially.. it usually doesn't depart from climo too much in October so to see widespread reds like that is a pretty big anomaly. Especially considering the reds are in the critical Eurasia area. It can change rapidly in October though. I disagree respectfully. Those reds qr far from widespread but as you imply, it probably is a week or more away from relevance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 We need to see a big storm hit Eurasia but it doesn't look in the cards. Looks like they'll pick up some snow over the next week, but it doesn't look like a deep snow pack so it could melt off quickly. We could get above average in that time, but the key is sustaining it so the month as a whole is above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 We need to see a big storm hit Eurasia but it doesn't look in the cards. Looks like they'll pick up some snow over the next week, but it doesn't look like a deep snow pack so it could melt off quickly. We could get above average in that time, but the key is sustaining it so the month as a whole is above average. lots of green over there from Satellite... Yet i think it's cold? the ice (sea) is doing the lurch recovery act... Gain many KM squared per diem now. the Siberian penn is doing well and that is defnitely one of the key spatial correlators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Still looks ugly over the next several days. Later in the period there is a chance we could see some large gains in areas that need them, but if we don't get that, then this month is looking quite likely to finish below average. We last finished below average in October snow cover back in 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 20, 2011 Author Share Posted October 20, 2011 Interesting mid month... Snow has explosively expanded, particularly over the last 5 days.. Most of northern Eurasian areas and all of Siberia N of 50 are solidly snow covered. Yet the sea ice seems to have stagnated compared to the gains earlier in the month to some degree. Nearing ice lock on the Siberian side but that quadrant has been the first to go since 2006 every year. Most operational runs showing large areas of -30C 850 air generating above 65N, so it appears environmental conditions are on track for good cold genesis as is already verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Interesting mid month... Snow has explosively expanded, particularly over the last 5 days.. Most of northern Eurasian areas and all of Siberia N of 50 are solidly snow covered. Yet the sea ice seems to have stagnated compared to the gains earlier in the month to some degree. Nearing ice lock on the Siberian side but that quadrant has been the first to go since 2006 every year. Most operational runs showing large areas of -30C 850 air generating above 65N, so it appears environmental conditions are on track for good cold genesis as is already verifying. We still have negative departures over Eurasia but there are pretty decent solid departures over the eastern side to the west of Japan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Negative departures in eastern Eurasia diminished significantly this week so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 20, 2011 Author Share Posted October 20, 2011 Negative departures in eastern Eurasia diminished significantly this week so far. Right - for me, upon accepting that the cryosphere as we know it has changed as fact, relative to that fact this is not so bad. If we were not recoverying at rate of change that might be more telling. Now watch...just because I said that an Asteroid will hit up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5, 2011 Author Share Posted November 5, 2011 This may be the last update I'm interested in providing for this Autumn as the next will be winter - the transition season is coming to a close. Just using the eyeball method, currently the land based snow cover is showing average coverage comparing the last 5 year mean, and slightly below average for the 30 year. Snow has locked into all of Siberia, Alaska, and northern Eurasia is now heavily involved in sustaining snow pack. The sea ice appears just about average for the last 5 years, and definitely below the 30-year. The overall is likely GW background related as far as reducing. The differential this season has been impressive, though lags a little N of the Bering Strait. Regardless of the lags in the 30 year means we are well on our way to establishing a good cold feed-back and transport to lower latitudes for any cross, or near cross-polar flow regimes that set up going forward. Expect to snow to seasonally continue to expand S on the Canadian side, which will naturally assist. One thing I would like to add as a side-note. The middle tropospheric satellite soundings are showing unusually cool temperatures in the 700-500mb sigma levels over much of N/A. I don't have access to those values over Euro and Asia, but it would intriguing if this were a unilateral signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 9, 2011 Author Share Posted November 9, 2011 Quick observation ... Comparing November so far against last November to date; sea ice lags by a little, but interestingly ... snow cover is nearly 1/3rd greater in surface coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Per Rutgers, For week 43, 2011 has the sixth highest NH snow cover since 1966 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Per Rutgers, For week 43, 2011 has the sixth highest NH snow cover since 1966 The CONUS is way above avg right now...lot of snow out there in the Rockies region. Canada is struggling though...but western and central Canada should clean up in the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 9, 2011 Author Share Posted November 9, 2011 The CONUS is way above avg right now...lot of snow out there in the Rockies region. Canada is struggling though...but western and central Canada should clean up in the next week or so. Cause is the fascination. For me, I am not inclined to think it is random (permutation of events) that promoted accelerated snow cover over recent autumns (to date that is). The current coverage is too pervasive for that. So what does that mean: Well, for starters, there is clearly something underway that is unilaterally promoting snow growth on a hemispheric scale. What that may be is a scientific amazement - I'm sure. But, something strikes me right off the bat; TPC stated in there 3rd Sean discussion that the mid and upper level temperatures over the cyclone are abnormally cold. Among other things, that shifting the typical sounding down the scale and promoting the warm core at lower relative degrees. Many of the latter storms of the mega 2005 season that trekked boldly through the Atlantic Basin also capitalized off that thermal conditioning... But I'm wildly digressing at this point. As this pertains to transition season climo, it was also noted that prior to the 1 in a 300 year snow event the other day/week, the whole of the domain over this part of eastern N/A was also in a similar circumstance. While that is probably not directly causal in why their is more snow taking place apparently everywhere, the two I believe must be intrinsically linked and symptomatic of the same background physical processes. In other words, something is making it cold ...and doing so it would seem anomalous comparing to daily teleconnector suggestion. This is fantastic times for Meteorology when this sort of unusual-ness gets underways. By the way - hope all are noting the near historic winter storm with 100mph winds striking western Alaska. I wouldn't bite too hard on the current EPO progs (or status) because the domain is clearly being corrupted by the transient condition of having that monster process through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Nice discussion Tip. Keep us updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Cause is the fascination. For me, I am not inclined to think it is random (permutation of events) that promoted accelerated snow cover over recent autumns (to date that is). The current coverage is too pervasive for that. So what does that mean: Well, for starters, there is clearly something underway that is unilaterally promoting snow growth on a hemispheric scale. What that may be is a scientific amazement - I'm sure. But, something strikes me right off the bat; TPC stated in there 3rd Sean discussion that the mid and upper level temperatures over the cyclone are abnormally cold. Among other things, that shifting the typical sounding down the scale and promoting the warm core at lower relative degrees. Many of the latter storms of the mega 2005 season that trekked boldly through the Atlantic Basin also capitalized off that thermal conditioning... But I'm wildly digressing at this point. As this pertains to transition season climo, it was also noted that prior to the 1 in a 300 year snow event the other day/week, the whole of the domain over this part of eastern N/A was also in a similar circumstance. While that is probably not directly causal in why their is more snow taking place apparently everywhere, the two I believe must be intrinsically linked and symptomatic of the same background physical processes. In other words, something is making it cold ...and doing so it would seem anomalous comparing to daily teleconnector suggestion. This is fantastic times for Meteorology when this sort of unusual-ness gets underways. By the way - hope all are noting the near historic winter storm with 100mph winds striking western Alaska. I wouldn't bite too hard on the current EPO progs (or status) because the domain is clearly being corrupted by the transient condition of having that monster process through it. JB has also talked about the anomalous cold in the mid and upper levels so it's interesting TPC brought this up too. We also had some big cold in the upper level back in the May/June time frame that was the impetus for the discussion that HM brought forth on how the atmosphere tried to trick us that it might be heading into El Nino since the MJO went nuts. However, it may have been related to the anomalous cold triggering deep convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 JB has also talked about the anomalous cold in the mid and upper levels so it's interesting TPC brought this up too. We also had some big cold in the upper level back in the May/June time frame that was the impetus for the discussion that HM brought forth on how the atmosphere tried to trick us that it might be heading into El Nino since the MJO went nuts. However, it may have been related to the anomalous cold triggering deep convection. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/18646-why-the-stratosphere-gave-a-false-enso-signal-in-the-spring/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 JB has also talked about the anomalous cold in the mid and upper levels so it's interesting TPC brought this up too. We also had some big cold in the upper level back in the May/June time frame that was the impetus for the discussion that HM brought forth on how the atmosphere tried to trick us that it might be heading into El Nino since the MJO went nuts. However, it may have been related to the anomalous cold triggering deep convection. Can we say that this anamolous cold started with the boxing day storm of last year? I mean last year we were getting storms tracking over ACK and it was cold enough in the upper air for snow at the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Can we say that this anamolous cold started with the boxing day storm of last year? I mean last year we were getting storms tracking over ACK and it was cold enough in the upper air for snow at the coastline. Well this cold air is in the mid and upper levels...I don't think you can relate it to cold at the surface and storm tracks, but it's interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Well this cold air is in the mid and upper levels...I don't think you can relate it to cold at the surface and storm tracks, but it's interesting. I was just remembering how the 850 line was like 100 to the SE of the boxing day and Jan 12 lows Wonder if this anamolous cold might be the saving grace for coastal areas this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I was just remembering how the 850 line was like 100 to the SE of the boxing day and Jan 12 lows That was just a cold antecedent airmass...I don't think you can make a correlation to anything else. Those were tight compact bombs, unlike the storm we just saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 26, 2011 Author Share Posted November 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Is this due to +AO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Is this due to +AO? I would think so, lower heights and colder air being kept up in the arctic certainly helps sea ice recover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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