Ohio And Great Lakes Including (PA,KY,WVA,IN)!

[Trent]

The farther west the storm cuts the worse the fetch will be for NE OH. If today's models are the correct solution we'd be looking at w to wsw flow... add in some troughing and congrats WNY and buffalo. The good news this is all likely to change next model run. We are still a long ways out so I'm not too concerned.

That is one thing I've learned living here. A storm that misses to the south and east and hits the east coast and interior NE is always better in NE Ohio than a storm dumping snow in the midwest.

Its nice that at least there's something to track next weekend.

[NEOH]

Probably just model analysis but...

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL NOT BE MAKING TOO MANY CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

IT APPEARS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY USHERING IN SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA. FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH TOWARD THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

SHARPLY COLDER AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SO FAR WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP TO DEVELOP THE FIRST GOOD LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON. FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED FOR THE LAKES WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME GOOD ACCUMULATIONS BY END OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY EAST.

[Steve]

Going to get a bit cold..but only for a couple days!!

[Trent]

It's looking more and more likely that the LES potential at the end of the week will be with a SW flow. It was looking like Cleveland might actually pull off the first negative temperature departure in a year and a half, but now it's going to go down to the wire.

[NEOH]

It's looking more and more likely that the LES potential at the end of the week will be with a SW flow. It was looking like Cleveland might actually pull off the first negative temperature departure in a year and a half, but now it's going to go down to the wire.

Not looking good is right. We'll probably see a few snow showers but that's about it. Looks like a short lived wsw flow event... then back up to 40 on Sunday. At least I'll be able to clean the yard one last time. The models are going to torture us this winter. I'd almost rather torch until the real cold comes south so the lake temps don't cool that much.

[Trent]

Not looking good is right. We'll probably see a few snow showers but that's about it. Looks like a short lived wsw flow event... then back up to 40 on Sunday. At least I'll be able to clean the yard one last time. The models are going to torture us this winter. I'd almost rather torch until the real cold comes south so the lake temps don't cool that much.

CLE should hopefully pick up more than a trace by month's end. Of the 6 winters since 1948 at CLE with only a trace in November, all were craptacular.

[NEOH]

CLE should hopefully pick up more than a trace by month's end. Of the 6 winters since 1948 at CLE with only a trace in November, all were craptacular.

I can guarantee that CLE had more than a trace from the lake effect a few weeks ago... but you know how snowfall is measured there. The writing may be on the wall though.

[Trent]

I can guarantee that CLE had more than a trace from the lake effect a few weeks ago... but you know how snowfall is measured there. The writing may be on the wall though.

Well, the Lake Effect potential has transitioned into a 3 day period of 3"+ of rain. It will be fun to track how much rain actually falls from today through Friday.

[NEOH]

Well, the Lake Effect potential has transitioned into a 3 day period of 3"+ of rain. It will be fun to track how much rain actually falls from today through Friday.

lol... we went from looking at the first potentially significant lake effect event to a one day cold shot (friday), then back to seasonable levels over the weekend. It has been wet lately... soil moisture has improved dramatically. My BY went from cracked clay to now having standing water in a short period of time.

DT called this cold shot failure a long time ago. Great call on his part. No real cold for the foreseeable future. Hopefully the pattern will become more favorable in mid-Dec. Until then snooze fest.

[Trent]

lol... we went from looking at the first potentially significant lake effect event to a one day cold shot (friday), then back to seasonable levels over the weekend. It has been wet lately... soil moisture has improved dramatically. My BY went from cracked clay to now having standing water in a short period of time.

DT called this cold shot failure a long time ago. Great call on his part. No real cold for the foreseeable future. Hopefully the pattern will become more favorable in mid-Dec. Until then snooze fest.

NAM showing some back end snow now on Friday. Might be able to squeeze out another coating.

[ams30721us]

12z Nam showing some love..

12z nam snow

Edit: 12z GFS also:

12z GFS

[NEOH]

NAM showing some back end snow now on Friday. Might be able to squeeze out another coating.

A coating looks possible... but that's about it. Too bad the wind directin won't work out this time. This cold shot should drop the western basin a few degrees.

Did you notice CLE's AFD? Yesterday they were saying the LES event was a bust... now today talking about the first significant event.

[Trent]

These late winters are getting to be the norm. If you look at the NAM closely, appears most of the precip ends before the 32 line crosses. If it doesn't snow this Friday, this could be the latest first measurable snow at CLE since dec 10, 1994. But this is all a moot point because the entire region has already had measurable snow, with over half already having their first inch.

[ams30721us]

12z Nam says hey Louisville to Cincinnati corridor haha

12z Nam Snowfall output

12z GFS says a light Ohio Valley coating for most

12z GFS

[buckeye]

surprised there's not more chatter about the 3-4" of rain most models are throwing out there in the next day and a half. We haven't had that kind of a system here in a long time.

Also, a little present for my OV brethren. The 12z euro just came out on accuwx and it shows our first snowstorm of the season next saturday. The set up is a broad trough across much of the country with a mostly west/east oriented baroclinic zone right along the Ohio river. A storm forming in the southern plains and what appears to be mod to heavy snow overspreading central IN and OH. The 850 0 line is just north of the river. Doesn't look like the storm would cut, but would head more east and pump a lot of moisture north. 10 days out....but wth.

[Hoosier]

surprised there's not more chatter about the 3-4" of rain most models are throwing out there in the next day and a half. We haven't had that kind of a system here in a long time.

Also, a little present for my OV brethren. The 12z euro just came out on accuwx and it shows our first snowstorm of the season next saturday. The set up is a broad trough across much of the country with a mostly west/east oriented baroclinic zone right along the Ohio river. A storm forming in the southern plains and what appears to be mod to heavy snow overspreading central IN and OH. The 850 0 line is just north of the river. Doesn't look like the storm would cut, but would head more east and pump a lot of moisture north. 10 days out....but wth.

You sure you're looking at the right run? On the ECMWF site, there is an elongated surface low/trough in the Plains and it looks like it would be pretty unfavorable for those of us in IN/OH.

[buckeye]

You sure you're looking at the right run? On the ECMWF site, there is an elongated surface low/trough in the Plains and it looks like it would be pretty unfavorable for those of us in IN/OH.

Damn....you're right Hoosier. The model shows it's a 12z update but I just compared it to the 00z run and that's what it's from. Bummer. That 00z run was sweet

[dilly84]

To much surprise having the first frozen precip of the year here in Warsaw (Coshocton County) IP/ZR mix

[wxdudemike]

Snowing at 33 degrees!

[ams30721us]

A few vids as promised from the University of Cincinnati!

http://www.youtube.com/user/Daltonweather?feature=mhum

http://www.youtube.com/user/Daltonweather?feature=mhum#p/a/u/1/byzV4X5fWM8

[Trent]

Latest first measurable snowfall at CLE since 1947 and subsequent seasonal snowfall:

1994 - Dec 10 -43.6

1948 - Dec 10 - 30.4

1990 - Dec 3 - 47.1

1985 - Dec 2 - 60.1

1963 - Nov 29 - 55.8

2010 - TBD

Doesn't appear anything will fall at the airport in the short term. The winters above were all below average with snowfall. Hopefully this winter goes a bit more like 85/86.

[NEOH]

Latest first measurable snowfall at CLE since 1947 and subsequent seasonal snowfall:

1994 - Dec 10 -43.6

1948 - Dec 10 - 30.4

1990 - Dec 3 - 47.1

1985 - Dec 2 - 60.1

1963 - Nov 29 - 55.8

2010 - TBD

Doesn't appear anything will fall at the airport in the short term. The winters above were all below average with snowfall. Hopefully this winter goes a bit more like 85/86.

Those stats do not bode well. But I'll take an average winter... average is still pretty good around here. LES will be in full force tonight with the WSW wind flow. Too bad the earlier model runs with the WNW flow didn't pan out... this could have a been a good one. The western basin will be basically dry after 48 hrs. of strong wsw winds... lake temps will be cooling dramatically as well.

[Trent]

Those stats do not bode well. But I'll take an average winter... average is still pretty good around here. LES will be in full force tonight with the WSW wind flow. Too bad the earlier model runs with the WNW flow didn't pan out... this could have a been a good one. The western basin will be basically dry after 48 hrs. of strong wsw winds... lake temps will be cooling dramatically as well.

We are fortunate that a bad winter here would be considered good by many. It is unfortunate that by the time we get a wnw flow the lake will have cooled considerably. Mixing concerns by the lake are essentially over. Also of note. Today was the first freeze downtown since March.

Of course we went through this same late start to winter last year and it turned out to be "meh". A little below average and no major storms in NEOH. Lake effect saved us and screwed our friends on the north side of the lake.

[NEOH]

We are fortunate that a bad winter here would be considered good by many. It is unfortunate that by the time we get a wnw flow the lake will have cooled considerably. Mixing concerns by the lake are essentially over. Also of note. Today was the first freeze downtown since March.

Of course we went through this same late start to winter last year and it turned out to be "meh". A little below average and no major storms in NEOH. Lake effect saved us and screwed our friends on the north side of the lake.

the local models insist on showing a few tenths of precip from e cuyahoga out east to geauga... they tend to get fooled as the winds more often than not never turn onshore that much... but you never know. next wednesday and thursday looks like another chance for LES according to the models

the last early season significant event I can remember with a WNW flow is back in '96. nothing will ever compare to that.

[jbcmh81]

We are fortunate that a bad winter here would be considered good by many. It is unfortunate that by the time we get a wnw flow the lake will have cooled considerably. Mixing concerns by the lake are essentially over. Also of note. Today was the first freeze downtown since March.

Of course we went through this same late start to winter last year and it turned out to be "meh". A little below average and no major storms in NEOH. Lake effect saved us and screwed our friends on the north side of the lake.

Most of NEOH had between 30-55" of snow in February last winter, with major storms on the 5-6th and 15-16th. Not sure where you get no major storms from. There were a few locations, like Cleveland, on the Lake that didn't have normal or above snowfall for the winter, but most areas did.

[Trent]

Most of NEOH had between 30-55" of snow in February last winter, with major storms on the 5-6th and 15-16th. Not sure where you get no major storms from. There were a few locations, like Cleveland, on the Lake that didn't have normal or above snowfall for the winter, but most areas did.

All of greater Cleveland had below or slightly below average snowfall last winter. I don't know what major storms you are talking about, but there was just 5.9" in Cleveland on the 5th and 6th and 3.4" on the 15th-16th, that's not major, maybe for CMH, but not CLE.

Last February featured near record snowfall from a lot of light lake effect events at being at the outer periphery of storms to the south. Take a look at the F6, no significant storms last winter.

Taking it further the max 2 day snowfall at CLE last winter was just 7.2" on Feb 25 and 26 from 3 different LES band rotating through. This is bottom 20th percentile at CLE for max 2 day snowfalls.

[Trent]

the local models insist on showing a few tenths of precip from e cuyahoga out east to geauga... they tend to get fooled as the winds more often than not never turn onshore that much... but you never know. next wednesday and thursday looks like another chance for LES according to the models

the last early season significant event I can remember with a WNW flow is back in '96. nothing will ever compare to that.

Yeah. The wrf has a few tenths, but the band placement seems illogical for the wind flow.

[wxdudemike]

Got a solid coating to half inch here last night. Still a bit of snow on the shaded side of the roof with a temp of 36 degrees

[jbcmh81]

All of greater Cleveland had below or slightly below average snowfall last winter. I don't know what major storms you are talking about, but there was just 5.9" in Cleveland on the 5th and 6th and 3.4" on the 15th-16th, that's not major, maybe for CMH, but not CLE.

Last February featured near record snowfall from a lot of light lake effect events at being at the outer periphery of storms to the south. Take a look at the F6, no significant storms last winter.

Taking it further the max 2 day snowfall at CLE last winter was just 7.2" on Feb 25 and 26 from 3 different LES band rotating through. This is bottom 20th percentile at CLE for max 2 day snowfalls.

You said that there were no major storms in NEOH, which is absolutely untrue. Cleveland is not the only city or area in the NE part of the state, and is probably the only city up that way that had below normal snowfall. Most areas had a foot or more from the 5th-6th storm and did well with later storms as well. The immediate lakeshore did crap, but again, you didn't specify Cleveland only in your statement.

[Jim Martin]

Didn't see the snow on the ground here this week. Although, it should not be long before our first coating of snow this month.