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Severe Outbreak Tuesday Aug 2nd, 2011


free_man

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Nah..they'll fire up from Ginx's area in SE CT on east.. Too far east yesterday for the most part..and to far west today..no man's land

i agree with scooter...wouldn't be surprised if the furthest west cells clip YBY...a lot of guidance has stuff that far west...just more isolated than the stuff over eastern areas.

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Lol. It was like being in FL yesterday...watching those go up then fall apart

Had that Florida vision when I made that post, too.

Best setup evah :arrowhead: ; 15kt shear, 90/75, >2000 j/kg, the weakest seabreeze front known to man, not detected by radar only subtle obs, sparks off a single cell 60dbz cells that dump 18" of rain over three hours in an isolated swamp in the Everglades and no one else in the state had a drop. That was yesterday.

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Nah..they'll fire up from Ginx's area in SE CT on east.. Too far east yesterday for the most part..and too far west today..no man's land

Best is NE Mass. yesterday was probably one of the best scenic days of my life. Anvil tops surrounded me with Mammatus overhead for two hours plus then a cobalt blue Arctic, tropical sky at sunset. Can not say the weather has been boring, what a year.

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Modestly moderate rain shower ongoing right now. Think this might be about it for the day. I guess it helps a little with the lawn but .05" isn't gonna do all that much, maybe I can add on another passing shower or two if I'm lucky. Not looking to good for much else here probably to far west for today. Too far east to cash in on anything yesterday.

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Modestly moderate rain shower ongoing right now. Think this might be about it for the day. I guess it helps a little with the lawn but .05" isn't gonna do all that much, maybe I can add on another passing shower or two if I'm lucky. Not looking to good for much else here probably to far west for today. Too far east to cash in on anything yesterday.

Modestly moderate....nice...:lol:

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MESOSCALE UPDATE 1 PM...

SHOWERS/STORMS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN

VT/NH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED WITH SBCAPES

AROUND 1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KT.

LIMITING FACTOR SO FAR HAS BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE

RATES WHICH ARE INHIBITING STRONGER CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING IN

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS SEEN BY STORMS STRUGGLING TO FORM ON RADAR.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP...LATEST MESOANALYSIS

SHOWS BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-7C/KM WELL TO OUR N IN MAINE.

IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE MORE FAVORABLE

LAPSE RATES TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS UPPER LOW ROTATES

THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

STILL EXPECTING STORMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM

PRIMARILY IN SW NH...CENTRAL/EASTERN MA AND PERHAPS RI. LARGE HAIL

IS MAIN THREAT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN

FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS.

SPC SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE LOOKS GOOD AND WW IS POSSIBLE IF

ACTIVITY CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS FAR S.

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Modestly moderate....nice...:lol:

Looks like you might have a shower make it to you too if you are as fortuitous as I was. Watch out you don't slip and fall on the wet pavement... could be some serious life threatening storms today. All kidding aside though there is a watch up for my area up through Maine so the guys in Norman, OK see enough potential so I can't give up yet, never know where one storm could just pop up I figure. At least Maine is getting some rain today.

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