Burghblizz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think that was him as 'OH' something who posted 12" snow... Hahah!! I hope for 4-5 would be fine with me! OHsnow is not MikeDZ.... He used to be Enigma and Yterrbium in previous weather board lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The latest NWS forecast for snow showers is a bit unusual for a WSWatch, this kinda makes me think they are trending more toward an advisory than a warning. This would make sense with a forecast of 4-7" over a 30 hr period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The latest NWS forecast for snow showers is a bit unusual for a WSWatch, this kinda makes me think they are trending more toward an advisory than a warning. Only because they changed to snow showers? What makes you think that? In their forecast discussion, they say they think 4-7 with a possible upwards adjustment. CURRENTLY FORECASTING A GENERAL 4 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...BUT THIS AMOUNT COULD EASILY VARY UP DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ITS TRACK. THEREFORE...A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 The latest NWS forecast for snow showers is a bit unusual for a WSWatch, this kinda makes me think they are trending more toward an advisory than a warning. This would make sense with a forecast of 4-7" over a 30 hr period. I agree, we are looking at about 5 inches over a long duration period, although we will probably have a heavier burst for about 6 hours or so which will lay down a good bit. To me though, this may only warrant an advisory. Hope I am wrong of course and if the models get juicier then a warning would probably be more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WRT the NWS discussion... I think it is just a typo - they are trying to say either "easily vary depending" or "is up to" and got the two phrases intermingled. I just don't see this as a system with a surprise upside. Therefore, I don't think they would say it could "easily be more" Nonetheless, we are clearly due for at least a nice mid sized storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What exactly are they saying here, that the storm could drop more than 4-7 or that the totals at this range are still very much undetermined? If its more, that surprises me, anyone get chance to check the temp profile to get an idea of what ratios will be? LOL, 4-7" was my call, didnt realize it was in the AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Nam came in wetter fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Nam came in wetter fyi yes it did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 yes it did All the models have been very consistent giving us about .35-.45 of qpf. 15:1 ratios looking likely so I think the 4-7 by the nws is dead on. Btw...IMO, I think 2-4 main system synoptic snow, then 1-3 wrap around and les. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think the models are underdone for sure, 6-12 inch snow is possible but a min of 6 inches is likely http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkzNmWlCig8&feature=player_embedded# also watch this, This Met predicts for coldest winter in 100 years for europe and record snowstorms in us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think the models are underdone for sure, 6-12 inch snow is possible but a min of 6 inches is likely http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkzNmWlCig8&feature=player_embedded# also watch this, This Met predicts for coldest winter in 100 years for europe and record snowstorms in us Why is EVERY model underdone? Still waiting for my new year severe weather outbreak and 18 inch blizzard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Just looking at this system, can you guys remember such a far flung storm? I mean there is a huge area that could see 4+ inches from the Midwest, to the deep south, and up all the way to new England... I think it is unfortunate that stuff like that gets lost on here in some of the main threads because people are so concerned about their backyard. Weather is weather, and even if it doesn't impact me, I still find it interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Why is EVERY model underdone? Still waiting for my new year severe weather outbreak and 18 inch blizzard... Me too... Northpittweather, Just remember, you can say it is going to snow a foot for every storm; just because you predict it dosent mean it is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 this would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 this would be nice Wow...ratios must be insane with only .5 qpf in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 this would be nice Wow...ratios must be insane with only .5 qpf in the area. That includes what it thinks is on the ground prior to the snow starting. It kind of sucks due to that. This is better: http://wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Why is EVERY model underdone? Still waiting for my new year severe weather outbreak and 18 inch blizzard... well i saw a thing said on the NWS site several hours ago saying a error has been going on most of the models, and just looks at the storm, it's a huge monster 18 inch blizzard and severe weather event, well west of us in the Ohio Valley there was 50 or so tornadoes and 8 killed and NYC got there 18+ inch blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 well i saw a thing said on the NWS site several hours ago saying a error has been going on most of the models, and just looks at the storm, it's a huge monster 18 inch blizzard and severe weather event, well west of us in the Ohio Valley there was 50 or so tornadoes and 8 killed and NYC got there 18+ inch blizzard Ok....I'm going to predict someone from Texas to Maine gets 18 inches from this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 well i saw a thing said on the NWS site several hours ago saying a error has been going on most of the models, and just looks at the storm, it's a huge monster 18 inch blizzard and severe weather event, well west of us in the Ohio Valley there was 50 or so tornadoes and 8 killed and NYC got there 18+ inch blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Lol...always love tonsee the Jean-luc facepalm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS seems to be dryer and further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS seems to be dryer and further east. I find it interesting that the NWS has us under a winter storm watch and they are forecasting snow showers for Tuesday through Wednesday. You usually don't see a winter storm watch for snow showers for this area. Maybe up near Lake Erie and over in the ridges, but usually not here. The forecast was for steady snow when the watch first came out and then they changed it to snow showers but still kept the watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittWeatherWatch Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH A SECONDARY LOW MOVING UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BEFORE DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE APPROXIMATELY 12-18 HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WITH SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. WITH 00Z MODELS TRACKING SURFACE LOW DIRECTLY ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND 700/850MB LOW SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WARNING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE HARD TO REACH. WILL CONTINUE WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO MAKE DETERMINATION BETWEEN ADVISORIES/WARNINGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH A SECONDARY LOW MOVING UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BEFORE DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE APPROXIMATELY 12-18 HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WITH SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. WITH 00Z MODELS TRACKING SURFACE LOW DIRECTLY ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND 700/850MB LOW SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WARNING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE HARD TO REACH. WILL CONTINUE WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO MAKE DETERMINATION BETWEEN ADVISORIES/WARNINGS. Yes, that would be 6+ inches. I think it can still be reached but I have thought all along, more like 4-6. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 The qpf layout makes sense given the track of the 700/850 low per the NWS discussions. We want to be on the NW side of those which we are not currently modeled to be. If this changes warning criteria snowfall may be met, but otherwise look for an advisory type event. We don't need much of an adjustment, but I think if todays 12z suite holds they remove the WSW for the WWA. Still beats cold and dry though right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The qpf layout makes sense given the track of the 700/850 low per the NWS discussions. We want to be on the NW side of those which we are not currently modeled to be. If this changes warning criteria snowfall may be met, but otherwise look for an advisory type event. We don't need much of an adjustment, but I think if todays 12z suite holds they remove the WSW for the WWA. Still beats cold and dry though right? I think 4-6"s a good call and not bad considering the weak start to the snow this Winter. Looking at the long range, looks stormy with lots of opportunities for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM wetter than 6z, looks good! I think we could see warning criteria snow, but thats banking on the ratios being as good as modeled come time for the snow, precip arriving on schedule, dry air giving up quickly etc. Given the variables and fact that there isn't a TON of precip modeled, but good ratios, i wouldn't be shocked with either an advisory or warning. Regardless, this looks to be a nice even around here I believe 5-6 is defiantly realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM wetter than 6z, looks good! I think we could see warning criteria snow, but thats banking on the ratios being as good as modeled come time for the snow, precip arriving on schedule, dry air giving up quickly etc. Given the variables and fact that there isn't a TON of precip modeled, but good ratios, i wouldn't be shocked with either an advisory or warning. Regardless, this looks to be a nice even around here I believe 5-6 is defiantly realistic. Henry on Accuweather was kinda tepid in his assessment of the storm, not hyping Big Daddy ....so that means game on! I do love Henry's enthusiasm and his unbridled weenie-ism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It is snowing lightly here in Robinson Twp now. Is this an indicator that this storm will be pulling in much more moisture than initially thought? Don't recall anyone calling for any chance of snow today. Snow on the radar has expnding much further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It is snowing lightly here in Robinson Twp now. Is this an indicator that this storm will be pulling in much more moisture than initially thought? Don't recall anyone calling for any chance of snow today. Snow on the radar has expnding much further north. I believe what we have this morning is just leftovers from a few lake bands moving south. The main system will not be here until late morn-early afternoon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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