RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Don't like seeing the 850 low tracking to the north of us like that. Throws SWPA into a dryslot as the OV low transfers to the coast. Hopefully this is not the trend, and it will stay further south. Take it with a grain of salt as it is the NAM at the end of it's range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Things are looking pretty good for Tuesday into Wednesday! Looks to me like a solid 3-5 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Things are looking pretty good for Tuesday into Wednesday! Looks to me like a solid 3-5 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Things are looking pretty good for Tuesday into Wednesday! Looks to me like a solid 3-5 inches! Given current models I like a 2-4 or 3-5 call right now. Lets hope the it can get more qpf over us as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Given current models I like a 2-4 or 3-5 call right now. Lets hope the it can get more qpf over us as we get closer. 12z nam def was south with the ov low...we get close to .5 qpf. Btw, nws discussions suck again. We got a whole two sentences on an event that could require a wsw inthe next two days. At the very least inthink this will be an advisory 3-5 or 4-6 type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 12z nam def was south with the ov low...we get close to .5 qpf. Btw, nws discussions suck again. We got a whole two sentences on an event that could require a wsw inthe next two days. At the very least inthink this will be an advisory 3-5 or 4-6 type event. Yeah looks good. Glad to see that OV low further south. Not sure I see us getting .5qpf, at least of the 12z NAM. If you do total qpf for 36 or 48 hours I see the ridges getting .5 from the upslope after the storm but not areas around the city / low lands. Still with decent ratios I can see 3-5 being a good range right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah looks good. Glad to see that OV low further south. Not sure I see us getting .5qpf, at least of the 12z NAM. If you do total qpf for 36 or 48 hours I see the ridges getting .5 from the upslope after the storm but not areas around the city / low lands. Still with decent ratios I can see 3-5 being a good range right now. Yeah, .4 is probably better...nam snow map has agc in the 5-6 range, so take that fwiw. My first call is 4-6 agc north..south to the pa border 2-5, and in the ridges 6-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS is less generous with qpf than the NAM. GFS tracks the 700mb low north while the NAM takes it pretty much right over top of us. Never good when the 700mb low is the North so hopefully the NAM is right. GFS even seems to give central PA a dryslot as the OV low merges with the coastal, I would feel better if that went away as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah, .4 is probably better...nam snow map has agc in the 5-6 range, so take that fwiw. My first call is 4-6 agc north..south to the pa border 2-5, and in the ridges 6-8. Models are seriously underdone, at the end expect that to double Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Models are seriously underdone, at the end expect that to double Yeah, this looks like a 6-10 inch or 8-12 inch event to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS is less generous with qpf than the NAM. GFS tracks the 700mb low north while the NAM takes it pretty much right over top of us. Never good when the 700mb low is the North so hopefully the NAM is right. GFS even seems to give central PA a dryslot as the OV low merges with the coastal, I would feel better if that went away as well. Yeah, that classic OV warm dry wedge is always something to watch with these type systems. However depending on how much front end lift we get with the vort, the limited qpf could get a boost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah, that classic OV warm dry wedge is always something to watch with these type systems. However depending on how much front end lift we get with the vort, the limited qpf could get a boost. Somewhat, but really i doubt that a warm dry wedge will come up because the snow line is the whole down in the southern states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 236 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... .A LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...CROSSING WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP FURTHER EAST AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THE LOWS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO AN EAST COAST SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING LAKE EFFECT ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016- 020>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-100345- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0001.110111T1600Z-110113T0400Z/ GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON- JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER- VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER- ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND- WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO- MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE... NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER...UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON... EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA...EAST PALESTINE... WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...HOPEDALE... STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...MARTINS FERRY... ST. CLAIRSVILLE...BELLAIRE...BARNESVILLE...SHADYSIDE... BRIDGEPORT...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...SHARON...HERMITAGE... GROVE CITY...GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY...FRANKLIN... SUGARCREEK...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER... ZELIENOPLE...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE... REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE... MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING... FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA... WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI... MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...WAYNESBURG...FAIRDALE...GREENSBURG... NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...LIGONIER... DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...UNIONTOWN... CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON... OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...TORONTO...WEIRTON...WHEELING... MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN... KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS 236 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * ACCUMULATION: POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL. * TIMING: TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS. * VISIBILITIES: BELOW A MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. REPORT YOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Somewhat, but really i doubt that a warm dry wedge will come up because the snow line is the whole down in the southern states Yeah, probably not so much a temp issue at any of the levels, but the steering will have to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nam still looks good. Same as the 12z for here, cut totals horribly over nyc, sucks for them . Ratios look to be good especially later in the storm. I wouldn't dismiss a 4-6 total at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittWeatherWatch Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 COMPUTER MODELS ARE COMING INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES WESTERN PA TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. MODELS DEPICT THE EAST COAST LOW TO BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW INTO WEDNESDAY...AS IT DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AROUND THE BACK SIDE...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS. CURRENTLY FORECASTING A GENERAL 4 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...BUT THIS AMOUNT COULD EASILY VARY UP DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ITS TRACK. THEREFORE...A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 COMPUTER MODELS ARE COMING INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES WESTERN PA TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. MODELS DEPICT THE EAST COAST LOW TO BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW INTO WEDNESDAY...AS IT DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AROUND THE BACK SIDE...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS. CURRENTLY FORECASTING A GENERAL 4 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...BUT THIS AMOUNT COULD EASILY VARY UP DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ITS TRACK. THEREFORE...A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS. Wow now this was a suprise. 2 days ago this was a 1-3"er and now we are talking biggest event of the season. I like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah, this looks like a 6-10 inch or 8-12 inch event to me. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I wouldn't worry about a warm wedge even with that inland low track. The coastal involvement should help our cause there. That being said, it's not the strongest storm in the world tracking up the Ohio Valley, so thoughts of it being more than a low end warning system seem a little out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Why? Do we have mikeDZ back in the fold?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Why? Just how the storm is setting up and the models are being underdone, just look how bad the models handled the storm so far, that storm in the south is a monster and when a winter storm watch is issued about 2 1/2 days out, a pretty big event is a good possibility, i thought they were going to issue the watch tomorrow not today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Why? Yeah, just quickly looking over a few things, looks more like a 4-7" event for Pitt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Do we have mikeDZ back in the fold?? Yeah what happened to him ? He was kinda weenied out, but overall he was a pretty good guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think that was him as 'OH' something who posted 12" snow... Hahah!! I hope for 4-5 would be fine with me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I just looked at the updated HPC day 1-3 precip map(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif) and it has .52 inches of liquid over what looks to me to be Columbiana County. With 10:1 ratios: 5.2 inches With 15:1 ratios: 7.8 inches With 20:1 ratios: 10.4 inches 18Z GFS: .36 inches of liquid With 10:1 ratios: 3.6 inches With 15:1 ratios: 5.4 inches With 20:1 ratios: 7.2 inches 18Z NAM: .43 inches of liquid With 10:1 ratios: 4.3 inches With 15:1 ratios: 6.45 inches With 20:1 ratios: 8.6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah what happened to him ? He was kinda weenied out, but overall he was a pretty good guy. I miss Rants, his warmista wishcasting was great for irritating the board faithful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 COMPUTER MODELS ARE COMING INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES WESTERN PA TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. MODELS DEPICT THE EAST COAST LOW TO BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW INTO WEDNESDAY...AS IT DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AROUND THE BACK SIDE...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS. CURRENTLY FORECASTING A GENERAL 4 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...BUT THIS AMOUNT COULD EASILY VARY UP DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ITS TRACK. THEREFORE...A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS. What exactly are they saying here, that the storm could drop more than 4-7 or that the totals at this range are still very much undetermined? If its more, that surprises me, anyone get chance to check the temp profile to get an idea of what ratios will be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What exactly are they saying here, that the storm could drop more than 4-7 or that the totals at this range are still very much undetermined? If its more, that surprises me, anyone get chance to check the temp profile to get an idea of what ratios will be? The 12Z Nam Bufkit had ratios at 6.8" of snow with .40" of QPF making the ratio 17:1. If this would verify, I might be able to see where the NWS is saying that totals could be upward of 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Just checked the hourly weather graph from the NWS and it has a storm total of 5.2 inches by Wednesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittWeatherWatch Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How unusual to see such model agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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