EastCoastLow Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 What are the chances of this spinning tightly into a microcane? It's developing pretty well for something that was a wet blob 36 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Unofficial, I'd cross the border into Matamoros tomorrow and drive South 20-40 miles with the doors locked. 50 to 60 knots, just South of Matamoros. IR watching, nothing too scientific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Unofficial, I'd cross the border into Matamoros tomorrow and drive South 20-40 miles with the doors locked. 50 to 60 knots, just South of Matamoros. IR watching, nothing too scientific. As much as I like your sincere enthusiasm ed. IR isn't the product to be watching tonight. Microwave and HH fixes are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 You'll be lucky to see 40 kt gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Unofficial, I'd cross the border into Matamoros tomorrow and drive South 20-40 miles with the doors locked. 50 to 60 knots, just South of Matamoros. IR watching, nothing too scientific. You could be close... I'm thinking Port Mansfield-Brownsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 I'm not wasting the energy to cross into the least-pleasant part of MX for a sheared TS. For a big 'cane, sure-- for crap, no way. Risks are cool when there are actual rewards involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 P.S. And I don't mean that as a diss on MX. I've been to MX many times-- I like the country and I'm a big fan of it, and I always feel it gets a bum rap. It's much safer and more hospitable than most Americans realize. But the area just S of BRO is not the best part. It would be like chasing a 'cane in the worst neighborhoods of Detroit-- not to mention that you can't just take a rental car across the border. (That in itself is a huge pain the azz.) I would need a solid 'cane-- like 85 kt and really bombing out-- to make me want to do that particular border crossing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 SNE'rs suffer from a mental disorder known as snow weeniesm. Arlene/Don = Alice/Barbara Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The shear will keep Don lopsided to the south. I fear much of southern Texas, possibly excluding Brownsville, won't even see much rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Cory & Josh are in a >2% 'SEE TEXT' area for tornado excitement. ...SRN/CNTRL TX CSTL PLN TNGT/EARLY SAT... T.S. DON IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SRN TX CST LATE TNGT PER NHC. OUTER RAIN BANDS WITH SYSTEM WILL POSE A RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 LOCATION...26.2N 94.9W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM E OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 It looks a tad better this morning, with the deep convection nearer/over the center, as per IR. Since we're here, Cory and I are thinking to head down to Port Mansfield-ish later today, with the main intention of the trip being an in-the-field practice run for the BASTARD/Kestrel. I'm thinking we'll make a sort of game of it, with the object being to intercept the pressure center as it crosses into Kenedy Co.-- that's if we feel motivated enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 A lot bigger than I thought it'd be for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 It looks a tad better this morning, with the deep convection nearer/over the center, as per IR. Since we're here, Cory and I are thinking to head down to Port Mansfield-ish later today, with the main intention of the trip being an in-the-field practice run for the BASTARD/Kestrel. I'm thinking we'll make a sort of game of it, with the object being to intercept the pressure center as it crosses into Kenedy Co.-- that's if we feel motivated enough. I think the really interesting feature you might want to sample is the convective band just east of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Y'all chasing mainland or island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 This is all backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Y'all chasing mainland or island? Mainland. Josh is thinking around Port Mansfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Baffin Bay will probably be closer to the center... but there's virtually nothing out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 The cyclone's looking a tad better on radar. Cory are heading down to Port Mansfield now. As I mentioned earlier, our goal is to hit the pressure center and get some good obs. More soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The cyclone's looking a tad better on radar. Cory are heading down to Port Mansfield now. As I mentioned earlier, our goal is to hit the pressure center and get some good obs. More soon. <--getting excited for y'all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 <--getting excited for y'all. We're not expecting anything too dramatic-- however, we do like that the convection seems to be trying to coil around the center on radar. That's cool-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The cyclone's looking a tad better on radar. Cory are heading down to Port Mansfield now. As I mentioned earlier, our goal is to hit the pressure center and get some good obs. More soon. Don is already at Port Mansfield latitude... it will be closer to Baffin Bay.... probably in between, but closer to BB, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Just looked more closely at radar and advisory position. Baffin Bay definitely seems a better bet at this point. (I see Jorge suggested it above.) There are some small communities around it. We'll get down there and look around. Hitting the road now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Riviera Beach cottage rentals. Some of the best speckled trout fishing in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Heading to Kingsville, then we're going to explore some of the roads that lead out toward Baffin Bay. We'll check the new advisory and reevaluate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Just looked more closely at radar and advisory position. Baffin Bay definitely seems a better bet at this point. (I see Jorge suggested it above.) There are some small communities around it. We'll get down there and look around. Hitting the road now. Back in the day when I went to A&I (Kingsville) there was plenty of access for Baffin Bay. Take FM 628 which is s of Kingsville on 77 and head towards Loyola Beach. You should be able to cruise around some n or s if you want. Otherwise you have to cross over an outlet as you head towards Sarita for access to the southern part of the bay and not sure about that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DOPPLER WIND DISPLAYS FROMTHE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN A WELL-DEFINED MESOCYCLONE IN A STRONG CONVECTIVE CELL WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND THE PRIMARY CONVECTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Scott, dude! Thanks for the amazing map! This is really helpful if we decide to go into Baffin Bay. We're in Kingsville eating a sandwich, trying to decide next steps. The advisory position and forecast suggest landfall near or even N of Baffin Bay. But there's that odd feature-- to say the least!-- near BRO. I have to say, if that became the new center, that would be the center relocation of the century. lolz I've never chased a TS before, and I didn't realize how complicated it is. Instead of a defined center, you have scrambled eggs! We'll make a decision soon. Perhaps a few more radar frames will enlighten us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Scott, dude! Thanks for the amazing map! This is really helpful if we decide to go into Baffin Bay. We're in Kingsville eating a sandwich, trying to decide next steps. The advisory position and forecast suggest landfall near or even N of Baffin Bay. But there's that odd feature-- to say the least!-- near BRO. I have to say, if that became the new center, at would be the center relocation of the century. lolz I've never chased a TS before, and I didn't realize how complicated it is. Instead of a defined center, you have scrambled eggs! We'll make a decision soon. Perhaps a few more radar frames will enlighten us. lol. Hear ya about chasing a TS. No recon combined with a crappy ass signature makes tracking it a royal pain. Grr... A bit larger map for reference if y'all stay up that way. Back at the house. Left you a vm so if you need anything give me a shout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.