forkyfork Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 the nam shows elevated instability above the inversion tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 squall line incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 61 foggy, rainy, and breezy here on cape cod. We must be one of the coolest spots in the country right now. Got the fire going in late june. Fire going and 61? Are you orginally from down south? lol Also, i'm sure there was many locations around the country that were much cooler than the cape today. Hell, I'm sure Mt washington was atleast 10 degrees cooler! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 line looks healthy..let's see if it survives. elevated but maybe a good light show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 line looks healthy..let's see if it survives. elevated but maybe a good light show. Looks like it's going to be awhile before the storms make it into the nyc area. I have some very heavy rains to my southeast heading directly for my area in the poconos right now. Mt holly issued a special weather statement for Monroe Pa, Sussex and Warren Counties in Nj for very heavy rains and winds up to 40 mph. I think Binghamton nws forgets my county sometimes lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 It looks like a major squall line (linear system) tomorrow evening with significant winds 50 knts, that ends the backdoor wedge very late tomorrow. Looks like it will become elevated and sustained strong for the entire LI area as well. Looks like a possible 30% wind outlook in the cards for tomorrow with jet, elevated instability and outstanding shear. Isolated tornado spin up F0 to F1 tomorrow near warn front. It probably will be OVC for LI and NYC with sunshine just 15 miles southwest of NYC. There could be some mixing out of the ST OVC as the squall line approaches around 5:00 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 tons of lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 tons of lightning hoping it doesnt outrun the boundary or poof lol i want a midnite light show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 SREF indicating a small area of severe weather potential tomorrow..somewhat significant, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 i hate when that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 We'll have to watch the potential today for some storms to take on rotation near the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Flooding in downtown Nyack in Rockland County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 There's some clearing to the SW of NYC. Maybe some sun can help us out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 There's some clearing to the SW of NYC. Maybe some sun can help us out today. Unless the warm front moves north I think Long Island and southern new england will be stuck in the fog and drizzle for most of the day. Areas south of Trenton will be the best locations for sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 We'll have to watch the potential today for some storms to take on rotation near the warm front. sounding is pretty Meh. Maybe we will get some weak rotation but i think the storms yesterday are going to be better than anything that comes up today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 sounding is pretty Meh. Maybe we will get some weak rotation but i think the storms yesterday are going to be better than anything that comes up today that sounding for OKX is not encouraging. Saturated close to the 900mb level, it is going to be tough to break that thick cloud layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 that sounding for OKX is not encouraging. Saturated close to the 900mb level, it is going to be tough to break that thick cloud layer. LI sucks and TT are barely into slight severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 LI sucks and TT are barely into slight severe. I would be careful gauging a severe weather threat for the entire area from the 12z OKX sounding... Back southwest of NYC im interested to see what happens as we have low LCL's, good 0-1km srh and of course good surface based instability down near the clearing. The wind speeds do kinda suck though. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 I would be careful gauging a severe weather threat for the entire area from the 12z OKX sounding... Back southwest of NYC im interested to see what happens as we have low LCL's, good 0-1km srh and of course good surface based instability down near the clearing. The wind speeds do kinda suck though. We shall see. Nice cell popped up south and east of Trenton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 I would be careful gauging a severe weather threat for the entire area from the 12z OKX sounding... Back southwest of NYC im interested to see what happens as we have low LCL's, good 0-1km srh and of course good surface based instability down near the clearing. The wind speeds do kinda suck though. We shall see. Agree...the models have the clearing pushing northeast into pretty much the far southwest portion of the OKX CWA. The severe threat is less to the northeast with the warm front struggling a bit there. Regardless..there's 1500 joules of elevated cape already into Northeast New Jersey...so the storms should at least be able to maintain themselves, albeit elevated. Any time you have a warm front in the vicinity..the potential exists for something nasty, especially with good surface heating to the south of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 I have a 2:30 tee time at Great Gorge which looks to be in jepordy taking a look at the upstream radar out of PA. Storms are already firing over central jersey and new storms are popping up and gaining intensity in eastern PA. Probably another day with a limited severe threat. Wind damage and flash flooding look to be the main threats. The NAM keeps most of the area dry until tonight. Too bad its been next to worthless lately. The HRRR also keeps us dry through at least early afternoon. I could see that happening but it wont last long enough to save my golf game. Those showers in PA are numerous and could evolve into a mesoscale rain event. I'll take a good severe storm but you guys can keep the heavy rain producers. We are all flooded out again here in NJ. The sixth time this year we have gotten to at least minor flood stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 enhanced 0-3km srh near the warm front...in excess of 200 m2/s2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Agree...the models have the clearing pushing northeast into pretty much the far southwest portion of the OKX CWA. The severe threat is less to the northeast with the warm front struggling a bit there. Regardless..there's 1500 joules of elevated cape already into Northeast New Jersey...so the storms should at least be able to maintain themselves, albeit elevated. Any time you have a warm front in the vicinity..the potential exists for something nasty, especially with good surface heating to the south of it. absolutely, the elevated instability is more than enough to maintain whatever cells develop and move northeast of the warm front. This has happened the past 2 days. The storm with golf ball hail(though im skeptical of this) in Rockland county/damaging wind in SW Connecticut as well as both Supercells that entered NW Jersey Wed and Thurs. Surface was pretty darn stable in areas that saw some beastly storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 The SREFs have also had a small area of significant severe weather potential just along the warm front by this afternoon...they've been signaling this for two or more days now. We'll have to see if they're on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1372 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NY...ERN PA...NJ. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 241542Z - 241815Z GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED IN THIS AREA...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS AND OCNL/MRGL SVR HAIL ALSO. 15Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM SERN ONT ACROSS WRN NY AND CENTRAL PA...SSWWD OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN VA...MOVING EWD 10-15 KT. QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAWN FROM ERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY NY SWD OVER NJ/PA BORDER REGION E ABE...THEN SEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL NJ. PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED EWD DRIFT...BUT LITTLE NET MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED. IN BETWEEN THOSE BOUNDARIES...DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY IS INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO JUXTAPOSITION OF SEVERAL FEATURES/PROCESSES... 1. SFC DIABATIC HEATING...AXIS OF WHICH IS EVIDENT FROM ERN VA NNEWD ACROSS ERN PA AND BGM-ART CORRIDOR. PER VIS IMAGERY...THIS CORRESPONDS TO MOST PERSISTENT GAP IN CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS CORRIDOR TOWARD HUDSON/DE VALLEYS. 2. SFC MOIST AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS MID-70S F OFFSHORE MD...LOW 70S DELMARVA TO NEAR ABE...AND MID 60S CENTRAL NY TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. 3. LEADING/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION THAT...WHILE WEAKER IN HEIGHT FIELDS THAN TROUGH FARTHER W OVER OH...CONTAINS MORE PRONOUNCED COOLING ALOFT...I.E. THERMAL TROUGH DRAWN ON 12Z 500-MB CHART. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER CINH IS NEGLIGIBLE ALREADY FROM SRN ADIRONDACKS SWD ACROSS ERN PA...WITH 500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. AS HEATING CONTINUES BETWEEN FRONTAL ZONES...EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP GRADUALLY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AMIDST 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FAVORING MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION. SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL EXISTS ALSO...ESPECIALLY INVOF ERN FRONTAL ZONE WITH BACKED SFC FLOW AND LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY/SHEAR. SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT FROM THAT BOUNDARY ACROSS HUDSON VALLEY TOWARD WRN NEW ENGLAND AS LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS STABILIZES. ..EDWARDS.. 06/24/2011 ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Watch just issued for all of NJ except NE NJ, eastern PA, and Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Watch just issued for all of NJ except NE NJ, eastern PA, and Delaware. Saw that. It appears the storms that pulsed over eastern PA earlier have lost a little bit as they moved east, no doubt in response to the more stable environment but more should fire, the question is what is left of them when they get to nyc metro and out of western south western jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Its a lovely late September day...oh wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Its a lovely late September day...oh wait I was looking for a fantasy storm on the GFS until I remembered it was June 24th, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 I was looking for a fantasy storm on the GFS until I remembered it was June 24th, lol. It sucks thinking about how far we are from winter. At least the days are getting shorter..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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