Ed Lizard Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 In honor of Humberto and the possibility of another WGOM storm, I'll share one of my favorite non-chase hurricane videos. It's from Humberto 2007. I'm still amazed at how quickly that thing developed. Just imagine being this guy -- waking up to a weak low pressure offshore and no watches/warnings, then experiencing an 80KT hurricane bearing down on your oceanfront house that night. A house in Bolivar/Gilchrist should be better built, at least have shutters, that windows don't blow in during a Cat 1 hurricane. IMHO. Now there is a Gilchrist, TX home designed for the rare tropical cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 12, 2013 Author Share Posted September 12, 2013 In honor of Humberto and the possibility of another WGOM storm, I'll share one of my favorite non-chase hurricane videos. It's from Humberto 2007. I'm still amazed at how quickly that thing developed. Just imagine being this guy -- waking up to a weak low pressure offshore and no watches/warnings, then experiencing an 80KT hurricane bearing down on your oceanfront house that night. That video would have been better without that music. The wind noises were pretty cool and I wanted to hear that-- not the cheesy, canned electronic track. But pretty cool anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 0Z Euro ought to give Josh more tingles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 12, 2013 Author Share Posted September 12, 2013 0Z Euro ought to give Josh more tingles. Slight ones. It looks better than previous ones. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Slight ones. It looks better than previous ones. Thoughts? Slightly better than hugging the coast. It's a bit more organized than I would expect at hr 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 12, 2013 Author Share Posted September 12, 2013 Slightly better than hugging the coast. It's a bit more organized than I would expect at hr 24. Well, Adam-- who's usually really fozziebearish-- is having some slight tingles about this one. But I'll let him speak for himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Joe Bastardi tweeted Cat 2 or Cat 3 North of Tampico. Yes, I follow him on Twitter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Joe Bastardi tweeted Cat 2 or Cat 3 North of Tampico. Yes, I follow him on Twitter... It's extreme, but it's possible. I forecasted a Cat 1 north of Tampico this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 12z Euro is a bit further W initially looking at how things are developing now but does bring it further N a tad. Faster though with landfall Sunday. Recon had problems and is running behind. Advisories should start at 4.... 60 kts around Tampico going by 12z guidance. Subtle changes with 18z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 12z Euro is a bit further W initially looking at how things are developing now but does bring it further N a tad. Faster though with landfall Sunday. Recon had problems and is running behind. Advisories should start at 4.... 60 kts around Tampico going by 12z guidance. Subtle changes with 18z guidance. Sounds pretty reasonable to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 12, 2013 Author Share Posted September 12, 2013 Add 10 kt and I'll approve this iCyclone forecast. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Add 10 kt and I'll approve this iCyclone forecast. Thx.Stop talking in riddles Are you chasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 12, 2013 Author Share Posted September 12, 2013 Stop talking in riddles Are you chasing? He he he. I'm considering it. If it looks like a pretty-sure bet that it'll be a 'cane, I'll go for it. I'm just starved for action-- I'll even take a Cat 1 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 He he he. I'm considering it. If it looks like a pretty-sure bet that it'll be a 'cane, I'll go for it. I'm just starved for action-- I'll even take a Cat 1 at this point.A strengthening cat 1 in the deep tropics with super heavy rain rates is the equivalent of a half gutted cat 3 in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 12, 2013 Author Share Posted September 12, 2013 A strengthening cat 1 in the deep tropics with super heavy rain rates is the equivalent of a half gutted cat 3 in NC Totally agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 The wildcard continues to be how the storm is going to interact with other mesovorticies in the gyre... the 12z ECMWF says that the EPAC invest organizes more, so some of the outflow from that disturbance provides some westerly shear over TD10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 12, 2013 Author Share Posted September 12, 2013 The wildcard continues to be how the storm is going to interact with other mesovorticies in the gyre... the 12z ECMWF says that the EPAC invest organizes more, so some of the outflow from that disturbance provides some westerly shear over TD10 Yep. First advisory is kinda blah: 50 kt before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Yep. First advisory is kinda blah: 50 kt before landfall. I think that's a safe call, although this system has a relatively high celling (intensity wise). The system in the EPAC is embedded in a northward displaced ITCZ and it will be difficult for one discrete system to dominate. Thats not as much of a problem for TD10 because it has the higher terrain of Mexico that is blocking a lot of that 850 hPa flow. Instead, its actually receiving enhanced vorticity through the Chivela pass which is a tiny gap of lower terrain between the Serra Madre mountains. I wouldn't be surprised if TD10 becomes the dominant vortex, and if that proves to be the case, TD10 could get substantially stronger than the 50 knot maximum intensity the NHC is forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 12, 2013 Author Share Posted September 12, 2013 I think that's a safe call, although this system has a relatively high celling (intensity wise). The system in the EPAC is embedded in a northward displaced ITCZ and it will be difficult for one discrete system to dominate. Thats not as much of a problem for TD10 because it has the higher terrain of Mexico that is blocking a lot of that 850 hPa flow. Instead, its actually receiving enhanced vorticity through the Chivela pass which is a tiny gap of lower terrain between the Serra Madre mountains. I wouldn't be surprised if TD10 becomes the dominant vortex, and if that proves to be the case, TD10 could get substantially stronger than the 50 knot maximum intensity the NHC is forecasting. OK, cool. It pisses me off that that EPAC thing is so close by. Grrrr. I'm hoping we see some contraction of the circulation tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 OK, cool. It pisses me off that that EPAC thing is so close by. Grrrr. I'm hoping we see some contraction of the circulation tonight. The trend we want to see (for an intensifying BOC system) is that the EPAC system to continue to remain broad and diffuse with multiple vorticies... it certainly doesn't look quite as organized as the ECMWF was depicting it would be at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 12, 2013 Author Share Posted September 12, 2013 The trend we want to see (for an intensifying BOC system) is that the EPAC system to continue to remain broad and diffuse with multiple vorticies... it certainly doesn't look quite as organized at the ECMWF was depicting it would be at this time. Ah, OK. That totally makes sense. OK, so I'll hope for a crappy EPAC mush pie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 I think that's a safe call, although this system has a relatively high celling (intensity wise). The system in the EPAC is embedded in a northward displaced ITCZ and it will be difficult for one discrete system to dominate. Thats not as much of a problem for TD10 because it has the higher terrain of Mexico that is blocking a lot of that 850 hPa flow. Instead, its actually receiving enhanced vorticity through the Chivela pass which is a tiny gap of lower terrain between the Serra Madre mountains. I wouldn't be surprised if TD10 becomes the dominant vortex, and if that proves to be the case, TD10 could get substantially stronger than the 50 knot maximum intensity the NHC is forecasting. Will cold water upwelling potentially be an issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Will cold water upwelling potentially be an issue? Potentially yes, as shown with Hurricane Nate 2011 in this same area...OHC is a bit higher in the deep BoC this year, and real intensification will commence after it starts moving, so I think upwelling issues will be mitigated some this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 12, 2013 Author Share Posted September 12, 2013 Potentially yes, as shown with Hurricane Nate 2011 in this same area...OHC is a bit higher in the deep BoC this year, and real intensification will commence after it starts moving, so I think upwelling issues will be mitigated some this time. So are we meetin' in TAM Saturday afternoon or...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 The Euro ensemble trends should raise some eyebrows. 12z Ens mean shows a good 84 hours over water and a turn to the north right as it makes landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Will cold water upwelling potentially be an issue? Potentially yes, as shown with Hurricane Nate 2011 in this same area...OHC is a bit higher in the deep BoC this year, and real intensification will commence after it starts moving, so I think upwelling issues will be mitigated some this time. I agree Jorge... OHC is higher than it was in 2011 before Nate even developed. Another key difference is the fact that TD10 is embedded in a very moist environment, where Nate was on the edge of an anomalously dry air mass to its north. Some of that dry air made the winds more efficient at depleting the warm SSTs over the BOC as well. Despite those mitigating concerns upwelling can still be a problem if the storm persists over the same region for more than 36 hours, so we will have to watch this carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 So are we meetin' in TAM Saturday afternoon or...? ...Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 .. That is a couple of days after Nate, and it still doesn't look much different than this year, excluding the very Southernmost BoC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 That is a couple of days after Nate, and it still doesn't look much different than this year, excluding the very Southernmost BoC Well guess where TD10 is... the southernmost BOC. And that is a large difference in TCHP... (60 - 20) = ~40 kJ/cm^2... so this year has roughly 3 times the amount of oceanic energy in this particular region in comparison to 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Thought I'd butt in here in the midst of all the TD10 talk! GFS has just had a major bust with Man-yi, full recurve looks on the cards and I'd be surprised if it even made it to typhoon strength. However all major models are spinning up a new system in Man-yi's wake, starting in about 72hrs. Medium range outlook is pretty interesting with GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NOGAPS and UKMET all going for a strong system tracking W to WNW. GFS looking especially HAWT... No I'll leave you in peace to get back to TD10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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