phil882 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 The 12z ECMWF is not however, as the outflow from Manuel disrupts Ingrid the last 24-48 hours from becoming stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Welp, looks like Ingrid will be another dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Welp, looks like Ingrid will be another dud. Glad I've stopped watching at this point. I remember someone asked why the NHC went lower on future intensity of Ingrid when it became a TD and my response would be, "Its 2013." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 So when are you guys getting to Tampico? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 So when are you guys getting to Tampico?[fozziebear]The 991mb is clearly contaminated by convection. Next pass will show something like 997[/fozziebear] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 [fozziebear]The 991mb is clearly contaminated by convection. Next pass will show something like 997[/fozziebear] lol He hates talking to me at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 Enjoying the horseplay, you two? I just got out of meetings and checked the IR. Ingrid is looking more interesting to me this afternoon. I actually like the NHC track-- the way it pulls N and then hooks left, approaching the coast at a clean angle. Hopefully it can get off its azz and not just die down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 993 on the dropsonde. I'm not really that surprised based on what we saw with Fernand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 993 on the dropsonde. I'm not really that surprised based on what we saw with Fernand. Yeah. All kinds of funny things can happen down there. Hopefully this drop will silence some of the negativity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I just want to see an earnest NE push away from land tonight... Manuel doesn't exactly look like its rapidly intensifying like the ECMWF was suggesting at this point, so Ingrid has time if it can organize quickly tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 I just want to see an earnest NE push away from land tonight... Manuel doesn't exactly look like its rapidly intensifying like the ECMWF was suggesting at this point, so Ingrid has time if it can organize quickly tonight. Yep. If it can just get away from land, I think we might be in business with a legit Gulf hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 Definitely gettin' some decent tingles this afternoon. Lots of chats with Scott (my right hand), Adam (pro-met dude), and Jorge (chase partner on this one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Definitely gettin' some decent tingles this afternoon. Lots of chats with Scott (my right hand), Adam (pro-met dude), and Jorge (chase partner on this one). Diurnal max tonight could be the make or break moment for both Ingrid and Manuel. P.S. TRMM pass just caught both of the storms... Ingrid is clearly larger than Manuel at this time, which is suprising since the ECMWF thought Manuel would be the larger system at this point. Ingrid is at 19N 95W while Manuel is at 15N 102W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Impressive LLC on Ingrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Impressive LLC on Ingrid Yeah, pretty nice...especially considering land interaction and 20kts shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Yeah, pretty nice...especially considering land interaction and 20kts shear On the IR and WV loops you can see the upper-level low that has been shearing the system continues to retrograde away over central Mexico. As long as Manuel doesn't really flare up tonight, this should result in gradually lessening of the vertical wind shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 14, 2013 Author Share Posted September 14, 2013 The 19 pm CDT package from the NHC has landfall close to TAM Sunday night with winds of 70 kt. Pretty cool. Adam and Jorge think it'll be more like Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 The 19 pm CDT package from the NHC has landfall close to TAM Sunday night with winds of 70 kt. Pretty cool. Adam and Jorge think it'll be more like Monday. Just taking a peak at the 00z GFS it has landfall on 00z 17 Sep (72 hours from initialization). I am still concerned about Manuel (which after looking iffy during the diurnal min is starting to look more organized again and could still produce some shear over Ingrid the next couple of days before it makes landfall). The GFS also got the initialization of Ingrid at 993 hPa and it actually weakens the system over the next 24-36 hours before slowly deepening it to the upper 980's before landfall. Its obvious the main inhibiting factor is vertical wind shear, which is actually forecasted to increase per the 00z GFS over the next 24 hours. In summary... Ingrid might still struggle as long as Manuel is around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 The GFS OLR field captures the potential future disheveled storm structure of Ingrid well... Manuel is dominating Ingrid at this time with moderate to strong northwesterly shear. However, once Manuel is gone, Ingrid is able to regroup and by landfall its a potent symmetrical system again: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Why is Ingrid the one being sheared if it has the larger circulation overall and has been producing deeper convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Just taking a peak at the 00z GFS it has landfall on 00z 17 Sep (72 hours from initialization). I am still concerned about Manuel (which after looking iffy during the diurnal min is starting to look more organized again and could still produce some shear over Ingrid the next couple of days before it makes landfall). The GFS also got the initialization of Ingrid at 993 hPa and it actually weakens the system over the next 24-36 hours before slowly deepening it to the upper 980's before landfall. Its obvious the main inhibiting factor is vertical wind shear, which is actually forecasted to increase per the 00z GFS over the next 24 hours. In summary... Ingrid might still struggle as long as Manuel is around. I actually told Josh this a few hours ago. My advice was to go to MRY and not look at a satellite picture tomorrow. It looks like it will be intensifying at landfall and that's the important thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 14, 2013 Author Share Posted September 14, 2013 I actually told Josh this a few hours ago. My advice was to go to MRY and not look at a satellite picture tomorrow. It looks like it will be intensifying at landfall and that's the important thing. But you know I'm gonna look... Can't hep it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Why is Ingrid the one being sheared if it has the larger circulation overall and has been producing deeper convection? Well the models show that Manuel might have the larger convective envelope. Manual has an inner core circulation which is what we have been looking at, but its outer core circulation (which is made up of the gyre circulation) is much larger and centered closer to Manuel than Ingrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 I actually told Josh this a few hours ago. My advice was to go to MRY and not look at a satellite picture tomorrow. It looks like it will be intensifying at landfall and that's the important thing. Yep... if Manuel gets out of the way (by moving inland tomorrow) then the last 24-36 hours of Ingrid could be spectacular in terms of RI. Manuel is not moving much right now though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 14, 2013 Author Share Posted September 14, 2013 Y'all better say positive things or heads are gonna roll in this here thread. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 This could get real interesting. If the GFS track and slower timing work out, the upper level wind fields look pretty darn good for possible RI Sunday into Monday. As Manuel heads inland and dissipates, Manuel's convection dissipates and the resulting westerly shear over Ingrid gets replaced by a large upper level ridge dome. Assuming a Monday landfall, this gives Ingrid about 24-36 hours of very good low shear conditions, with the initial intensity Saturday night being somewhere around 50-60 kt. So we'd probably be looking at an intensifying Cat 1-2 landfall under such a scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 14, 2013 Author Share Posted September 14, 2013 This could get real interesting. If the GFS track and slower timing work out, the upper level wind fields look pretty darn good for possible RI Sunday into Monday. As Manuel heads inland and dissipates, Manuel's convection dissipates and the resulting westerly shear over Ingrid gets replaced by a large upper level ridge dome. Assuming a Monday landfall, this gives Ingrid about 24-36 hours of very good low shear conditions, with the initial intensity Saturday night being somewhere around 50-60 kt. So we'd probably be looking at an intensifying Cat 1-2 landfall under such a scenario. Wow-- really cool. Thanks for the heads-up. What are you thinking Re: landfall time-- given the slower GFS solution versus all the others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 I took a closer look at both the 12z ECMWF and 00z GFS to note the distinct differences. The #1 factor that was different was the way the models handled Manuel. The GFS quickly moves Manuel NE into mexico within 24 hours, paving the way for Ingrid to intensify the last 24-36 hours before landfall The ECMWF moves Manuel nearly due N into the southwestern edge of Mexico in the 48 hour period. That extra day over water lets Manuel bomb out into a significant TC. This effectively keeps the unfavorable outflow associated with Manuel over Ingrid and keeps the system from intensifying before landfall. The trends should be obvious tonight who has it right, as the NE motion the GFS is prescribing is suppose to begin right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Euro folds to GFS with big curve solution. Landfall in 72 hrs (same as GFS) near Tampico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Euro folds to GFS with big curve solution. Landfall in 72 hrs (same as GFS) near Tampico. It actually dives SW before landfall... ending up well south of Tampico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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