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May 21-22 Midwest & Great Lakes Severe Threat


SEMIweather

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You're right, it does. However, I think this will be our last legit chance til mid June. The GFS is warm and dry over my area, and the Euro is cool, obviously giving very little chance of severe storms. Probably overreacting, but this feels like it will be one of the better chances.

Is this Respiratory Guy?

no possible way you can say this.

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Some pics of my view of the supercell from Norman. Can't compete with some of these closer shots though.. ha! weight_lift.gif

Killer shots man. Congrats again on the NOAA Hollings Scholarship opportunity--that is really awesome and a career changing type opportunity. I urge all sophomore college students to apply for that. Enjoy your time in Norman! Hope to see you in the central boards more!

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Is this Respiratory Guy?

no possible way you can say this.

Ok, I can't say it with certainty, but looking at the 12z GFS, Southern Wisconsin doesn't even get any more rain until the first week in June. This is the good model in terms of temperatures, but in terms of storm chances, it doesn't look promising. Maybe we can get the warmer temps along with the storm chances, but if I was a betting man, I would bet against it.

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Ok, I can't say it with certainty, but looking at the 12z GFS, Southern Wisconsin doesn't even get any more rain until the first week in June. This is the good model in terms of temperatures, but in terms of storm chances, it doesn't look promising. Maybe we can get the warmer temps along with the storm chances, but if I was a betting man, I would bet against it.

I will bet you. I will PM you the address to send my winnings too. There will be severe weather around here between now and mid june, now counting tomorrow.

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I will bet you. I will PM you the address to send my winnings too. There will be severe weather around here between now and mid june, now counting tomorrow.

Yeah that's crazy talk saying there will be no severe weather from after tomorrow until mid June, I'd bet everything I owned that there were multiple events between then and now.

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I will bet you. I will PM you the address to send my winnings too. There will be severe weather around here between now and mid june, now counting tomorrow.

We'll see, let's define the terms. Between Monday and June 10 (including June 10), I bet there won't be a slight risk or greater that includes Milwaukee and Chicago at some point. How about 15 or 20 bucks?

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We'll see, let's define the terms. Between Monday and June 10 (including June 10), I bet there won't be a slight risk or greater that includes Milwaukee and Chicago at some point. How about 15 or 20 bucks?

This is the last post on this. PM thundersnow if you want to continue discussing the topic. Don't kill the thread please.

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We'll see, let's define the terms. Between Monday and June 10 (including June 10), I bet there won't be a slight risk or greater that includes Milwaukee and Chicago at some point. How about 15 or 20 bucks?

Lol, I'd easily put $500 on there being a slight risk between Monday and June 10th.

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The GFS provides some hope, as it holds off convection until about mid afternoon. This allows a much broader area of moderate instability to develop in eastern Iowa and northern Illinois beneath a pretty decently sheared lower atmosphere. Surface and 925mb winds are ever so slightly veered compared to last night's runs, but it's not too bad. If we can in fact keep the morning/early afternoon convection at bay I'm still somewhat hopeful that we could get a brief window of supercells in eastern Iowa later tomorrow afternoon.

GFS forecast sounding for the QC area at 21z with around 2500j/kg of cape.

GFS_3_2011052200_F21_41.5000N_90.5000W.png

GFS_3_2011052200_F21_41.5000N_90.5000W_HODO_SM.png

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1258 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS

THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES ...AND OH VALLEY...

..SYNOPSIS

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO THE

UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY...WHILE UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE

WRN U.S. COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING

WILL SHIFT INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE AN

OCCLUDED LOW WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. ATTENDANT FRONT

WILL TRAIL SWWD THROUGH THE UPPER-MID MS VALLEY AND ERN KS. DRYLINE

WILL EXTEND FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX THROUGH CNTRL OK INTO KS

WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT THE FRONT. WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO

LIFT NWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

..SRN PLAINS

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS IN PROCESS OF DIMINISHING ACROSS TX AND THE

LOWER MS VALLEY. RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS WILL

PERSIST BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH EML PLUME AND WILL

LIKELY ADVECT FARTHER NWD INTO SERN KS AND SWRN MO. THE WARM SECTOR

IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS

DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE. WEAK HEIGHT RISES

AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE SRN PLAINS DURING

THE DAY AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THESE FACTORS

ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF CAP ATTENDING THE EML COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT

STORM COVERAGE. NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD

DEVELOP AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EWD ESPECIALLY FROM NWRN TX INTO

CNTRL/ERN OK INTO SERN KS WHICH WILL RESIDE WITHIN EXIT REGION OF

UPPER JET. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WITH HIGH VALUES OF

NORMALIZED CAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...VERY

LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO IMPROVE TOWARD

EVENING AS SRN BRANCH OF LLJ STRENGTHENS. THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY

PARAMETER SPACE WILL ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG

TORNADOES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A MODERATE RISK MAY

BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE STORM

COVERAGE CONCERNS HAVE BEEN MITIGATED.

..MID MS VALLEY THROUGH TN AND OH VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES

ONGOING MCS FROM NRN MO INTO EXTREME ERN IA EARLY THIS MORNING IS

EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY

PLAY A ROLE IN STORM EVOLUTION LATER TODAY. A 40-45 KT SSWLY LLJ

SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES MAINTAINING

INFLUX OF RICHER MOISTURE BENEATH COOL AIR ALOFT AND LIKELY

CONTRIBUTING TO 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE WHERE DIABATIC WARMING OCCURS.

SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH UPPER LOW

CIRCULATION...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG AND

EAST OF PACIFIC FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF

SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE INITIAL

THREATS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY INTO WRN PORTION OF

THE GREAT LAKES WHERE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD AUGMENT LOW

LEVEL SHEAR. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR

MORE MCSS AS THEY DEVELOP TOWARD THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WITH A

CONTINUED THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL

INTO THE EVENING. PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY WILL ALSO BE

MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL/GARNER.. 05/22/2011

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Danny Neal and I are talking now about the tornado probs...both didn't expect the 10% hatched at all but thats why those guys work at SPC so we'll see.

I was expecting a 5% tor probs area till the 16 30z outlook when we would have a better idea on clearing/ongoing precip.

Yeah I have to admit I am a bit surprised of the size of the 10% hatched area and the fact they pulled the trigger on such high probabilities this early. Even the 5% Tor probability is fairly large.

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Danny Neal and I are talking now about the tornado probs...both didn't expect the 10% hatched at all but thats why those guys work at SPC so we'll see.

I was expecting a 5% tor probs area till the 16 30z outlook when we would have a better idea on clearing/ongoing precip.

Agreed. I figured in a situation like this where morning convection was a question they would stay a little more conservative until those concerns are ironed out mid morning.

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Agreed. I figured in a situation like this where morning convection was a question they would stay a little more conservative until those concerns are ironed out mid morning.

If nothing major blows up behind the ongoing stuff now then we could be pretty good but I have a hard time believing that right now.

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FWIW...

The HRRR and RUC continue to have no early initiation(before 18z) issues.

Good sign. The GFS and RGEM are the same. So far the WRF/NAM are the only models getting overly excited and busting early. With such a strong mid level jet streaking into Iowa during the morning I'm still a bit nervous about early initiation, but time will tell.

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well my BRL-GBG target looks good lol that would be nice

Haha yeah, the NSSL WRF shows a monster sup over southeast Iowa. Makes sense since instability and deep layer shear seems to be maximized pretty nicely in that area. Still not sure where we'll end up targeting. May start near or east of Ottumwa so we can get on it as early as possible.

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