Something fresh to talk about may even include snow in the elevations

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm just musing here how perfectly timed that chunck of anomalous cold in the lower levels is relative to the timing of this amplitude aloft... ANY differently and this wouldn't have a chance. As it stands on the 00z/12z blend, someone around 1500' would cash in -

[HoarfrostHubb]

Weenie Ridge GTG next Weds night

[weathafella]

I'm just musing here how perfectly timed that chunck of anomalous cold in the lower levels is relative to the timing of this amplitude aloft... ANY differently and this wouldn't have a chance. As it stands on the 00z/12z blend, someone around 1500' would cash in -

Kevin may need to build a 10 story addition by mid week!

[HoarfrostHubb]

Kevin may need to build a 10 story addition by mid week!

Somehow Pete and Powderfreak will get snow.

I'm outta here!

Enjoy the weekend

[CoastalWx]

-NAO is the last thing we want to see as we head into May.

[Typhoon Tip]

Fantastic run... has a snow bomb (maybe) for interior elevations, then 4 days later and all out Sonoran heat release emerging...

[Typhoon Tip]

slightly tamer 12z UKMET but overall ...reasonably good continuity considering the time lead...

[Typhoon Tip]

-NAO is the last thing we want to see as we head into May.

If it is any consolation I suspect the GFS cluster is over-doing that. The CPC, for example, demonstrates that by the D10 lead outlook the negative bias blows up to a whopper -1.5 SD over verification and has been for month. That's a lot of bias there. Obviously, there should be no assumption that will continue outright, but even even half of that might is accounted for, the NAO probably ends up closer to neutral or slightly negative as opposed to the current -3SD at D10.

My personal belief is that we blow away the first 10 days of May with shakey cool times, then around mid month things flip around and it gets hot.

[CoastalWx]

If it is any consolation I suspect the GFS cluster is over-doing that. The CPC, for example, demonstrates that by the D10 lead outlook the negative bias blows up to a whopper -1.5 SD over verification and has been for month. That's a lot of bias there. Obviously, there should be no assumption that will continue outright, but even even half of that might is accounted for, the NAO probably ends up closer to neutral or slightly negative as opposed to the current -3SD at D10.

My personal belief is that we blow away the first 10 days of May with shakey cool times, then around mid month things flip around and it gets hot.

I hope, but I just don't like the look of the ridge in the Davis Straits. The euro op and ensembles have it too. It seems all snug and stable....not the most scientific term, but you know what I mean. Hopefully it gets out of here by mid month, but I dunno.

[weathafella]

I hope, but I just don't like the look of the ridge in the Davis Straits. The euro op and ensembles have it too. It seems all snug and stable....not the most scientific term, but you know what I mean. Hopefully it gets out of here by mid month, but I dunno.

"Due to tonight's rainout, we're rebroadcasting the game 7 Bruins/Montreal game".

[Damage In Tolland]

Is the Euro snow for here ..or is it close?

[dendrite]

Is the Euro snow for here ..or is it close?

Maybe you would get a few flakes mixing in on your weenie hill, but it looks like the brunt would be in the Berks/N ORH Co/Monads/Greens/Whites. I'd love to speed the EC up about 12hrs and get the brunt of it in during the overnight hours.

[Typhoon Tip]

Maybe you would get a few flakes mixing in on your weenie hill, but it looks like the brunt would be in the Berks/N ORH Co/Monads/Greens/Whites. I'd love to speed the EC up about 12hrs and get the brunt of it in during the overnight hours.

Hey ...in your avatar ...is that an actual close up photo of dendritic snow?

[Tropopause_Fold]

"Due to tonight's rainout, we're rebroadcasting the game 7 Bruins/Montreal game".

[CoastalWx]

Maybe you would get a few flakes mixing in on your weenie hill, but it looks like the brunt would be in the Berks/N ORH Co/Monads/Greens/Whites. I'd love to speed the EC up about 12hrs and get the brunt of it in during the overnight hours.

Could be a true May '77 where you and Kevin would be taking toaster baths together.

[Typhoon Tip]

Is the Euro snow for here ..or is it close?

This is religated to over 1,000', but probably down to 800' in bursts and amid ending innings when using the blend of the 00z/12z guidance. It is also not even marginal to begin, at which point it is relatively mild with rain.. But, this gets a HUGE dynamical assist and the collumn implodes when that low closes off aloft as it comes overhead. I visualize this as 47F at 1200' going to 40F in opening rains, then 33-35F blue bomb parachutes at some point. But even in the lower elevations in the last 2 to 3 hours, noodles would mix in.

This is using the blend of just those two runs though. Could trend colder, or not.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Could be a true May '77 where you and Kevin would be taking toaster baths together.

hopefully it just closes west of us...gives some mild/muggy southerly flow then gets the hell out of the northeast. all set with 47F, sheet drizzle and 48 hrs of overcast skies. it's just not worth Will seeing a couple of fat sloppy flakes. LOL.

[CoastalWx]

hopefully it just closes west of us...gives some mild/muggy southerly flow then gets the hell out of the northeast. all set with 47F, sheet drizzle and 48 hrs of overcast skies. it's just not worth Will seeing a couple of fat sloppy flakes. LOL.

It could...the 12z op would do that especially down your way, but frankly...I wouldn't mind something anomalous like that..even if it's a few mangled flakes for me...lol.

I'm just keeping my fingers cross we don't have a stretch of really horrible weather in May. A day or two is fine, and expected around these parts.

[Tropopause_Fold]

It could...the 12z op would do that especially down your way, but frankly...I wouldn't mind something anomalous like that..even if it's a few mangled flakes for me...lol.

I'm just keeping my fingers cross we don't have a stretch of really horrible weather in May. A day or two is fine, and expected around these parts.

if we are 1-2 days out and it still looks real for someone i'd be on board for it happening obviously just because May snow is funny...it pisses everyone off and if there's enough of it, can do some decent damage. but if it's just going to be a slow moving cut-off disaster, no thanks.

[CT Rain]

if we are 1-2 days out and it still looks real for someone i'd be on board for it happening obviously just because May snow is funny...it pisses everyone off and if there's enough of it, can do some decent damage. but if it's just going to be a slow moving cut-off disaster, no thanks.

Thankfully it looks like it scoots right along with some ridging before and after. I'm fine with a 1-day cut off cold rain.

[nzucker]

It could...the 12z op would do that especially down your way, but frankly...I wouldn't mind something anomalous like that..even if it's a few mangled flakes for me...lol.

I'm just keeping my fingers cross we don't have a stretch of really horrible weather in May. A day or two is fine, and expected around these parts.

La Niña Mays tend to be a tad cooler than normal in the Northeast, with ridging over the Plains and cold anomalies on each coast reminiscent of an omega-block regime...here is the composite for May following a moderate/strong Niña after 1950:

The composite shows some similarities to this April's temperature anomalies with the core ridging over the Southern Plains and cold weather across the West Coast, but the Northeast should cool down if the La Niña analogs hold true.

[CoastalWx]

if we are 1-2 days out and it still looks real for someone i'd be on board for it happening obviously just because May snow is funny...it pisses everyone off and if there's enough of it, can do some decent damage. but if it's just going to be a slow moving cut-off disaster, no thanks.

Agreed. We are in fantasy land right now, and it takes a special set of circumstances to bring a May snow event.

[CoastalWx]

La Niña Mays tend to be a tad cooler than normal in the Northeast, with ridging over the Plains and cold anomalies on each coast reminiscent of an omega-block regime...here is the composite for May following a moderate/strong Niña after 1950:

The composite shows some similarities to this April's temperature anomalies with the core ridging over the Southern Plains and cold weather across the West Coast, but the Northeast should cool down if the La Niña analogs hold true.

This recent SSW seems to have brought about the -NAO. That composite could easily happen imo, but I'd rather it not.

[nzucker]

This recent SSW seems to have brought about the -NAO. That composite could easily happen imo, but I'd rather it not.

Considering the Niña analogs, the sudden stratospheric warming, and the large model consensus on the developing NAO blocking, I think I would favor a cooler than normal May in the Northeast, with particularly large negative temperature departures starting Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. With a deep cut-off and 850s near 0C along with heavy rain, the big cities such as NYC and BOS may struggle to get out of the upper 40s, and that's a large temperature anomaly considering the average highs down here are approaching 70F at that point. Typically, spring/early summer Nor'easters create huge below normal readings as the combination of unusually cold upper levels and NE winds off the still chilly Atlantic really limit daytime warming. I remember this happening in early June 2009 with NYC staying in the 50s a bunch of days due to a late-season Nor'easter. I'm not quite sold on how long the 12z GFS keeps the high-latitude blocking in place, as I believe we may see a heat wave late May or early June as we have in some recent La Niñas like 2008 which had a torrid June in an otherwise unremarkable summer for heat.

[dendrite]

Could be a true May '77 where you and Kevin would be taking toaster baths together.

Even with a near best case scenario I'm not expecting anything accumulating here. 37F and RA.

[Typhoon Tip]

This recent SSW seems to have brought about the -NAO. That composite could easily happen imo, but I'd rather it not.

Couple of things about that... It was interesting to see that propagation was verified, which is key for correlating the -AO/-NAO phase states. It was somewhat surprising in that the strength of the SSW was not "strong", but more moderate in nature. My own finding have it that the stronger, the better...as far as actually getting them to propagate downwards into the polarfield tropopause. That said, it could also be related to detection compacity during comparatively weaker events.

That's all interesting, but what is actually much more intriguing to me is that this is about the latest in the 30-year data set I have ever seen any warm anomalies linger at the tropopause this late in the calendar year. In virtually all others in the sample, April 20th is pretty much it and a hard stop; what ever is present at that time gets erased almost immediately and utter neutralization of the field emerges abruptly. We are a full week+ past that date; this is pretty much the latest. Strange. That's odd.

[Edit: actually, upon further review there were a few others... But, it is among the rarer]

[CoastalWx]

Even with a near best case scenario I'm not expecting anything accumulating here. 37F and RA.

LOL, probably.

I'm actually quite impressed with leaf-out around these parts. Everything has exploded in the last few days.

[CoastalWx]

Considering the Niña analogs, the sudden stratospheric warming, and the large model consensus on the developing NAO blocking, I think I would favor a cooler than normal May in the Northeast, with particularly large negative temperature departures starting Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. With a deep cut-off and 850s near 0C along with heavy rain, the big cities such as NYC and BOS may struggle to get out of the upper 40s, and that's a large temperature anomaly considering the average highs down here are approaching 70F at that point. Typically, spring/early summer Nor'easters create huge below normal readings as the combination of unusually cold upper levels and NE winds off the still chilly Atlantic really limit daytime warming. I remember this happening in early June 2009 with NYC staying in the 50s a bunch of days due to a late-season Nor'easter. I'm not quite sold on how long the 12z GFS keeps the high-latitude blocking in place, as I believe we may see a heat wave late May or early June as we have in some recent La Niñas like 2008 which had a torrid June in an otherwise unremarkable summer for heat.

This wasn't a Nina, but I recall May and early June of '03 being just horrible. It wasn't until I came back from a trip to NC, that it finally warmed up. I'm curious as to hong long the -NAO lasts. Some analogs would have this continuing through July, and then snapping back positive in time for a warm and humid August. This happened in '08 and '09 too.

[dendrite]

LOL, probably.

I'm actually quite impressed with leaf-out around these parts. Everything has exploded in the last few days.

A lot of the smaller fruit trees and birches are beginning to leaf out. The larger deciduous ones are close, but are still mostly buds. By Sunday the lawn may need mowing. My soil temp (6") is up to 56F...on this day last year it maxed at 51F. So we're actually ahead of last year. The 2nd 2/3 of last April was pretty miserable though. I'm sure a week from now the soil temp will be well behind last year's.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Big big errr Spring incoming. Big spring