OK/MO/AR and into the OH valley heavy rain and flood threat

[smoof]

New HPC 5 day QPF map, wow look how huge the 8-10" area is, that is just an insane amount of water...

[Ozarkwx]

I think we might be able to take another 3-4" without a catastrophe, but yikes 8-10" more might be really bad. The monthly total at my house is over 6" now and we are soaked.

The ground is totally saturated, there is standing water on the level lawn areas and the creeks are looking rather full and mildly raging through the "hollers."

Another factor to consider in the next few days is the vulnerability of the trees to uprooting in the event of high winds.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

606 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM

WINDS...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL POSE

THREATS...OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. PARTS OF CARROLL AND MADISON COUNTIES ARE

EXPERIENCING FLASH FLOODING...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL WORSEN

THE SITUATION. AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAVEL OVER THE SAME

RAIN SOAKED AREAS...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR OVER

PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN THE NEXT HOUR.

[Central Illinois]

ILX's AFD mentioned they will probably issue Flash Flood Watches for areas along and south of I-72

.HYDROLOGY...ISSUED 210 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY ACRS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILLBE EXTENDED OUT IN TIME UNTIL 00Z MONDAY...AND THAT MAY NEED TO BEEXTENDED IN TIME AGAIN...BUT ALSO EXTENDED FURTHER NORTH SUNDAYNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE FORCES THE STALLEDFRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH.AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLETHROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ANDTHUNDERSTORMS PROJECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECASTAREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...EXPECT A CONTINUING CONCERN FORSIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS A FLASHFLOOD THREAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THESOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...WILL RANGE FROM AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES. THIS IS ON TOPOF THE ALREADY 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH SOME ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTSTHAT HAVE ACCUMULATED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHILETHUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SIGNIFICANTRAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...IFMODEL TRENDS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WE MAY NEEDTO EXPAND THE WATCH FURTHER NORTH. THIS IS A PROLONGED AND SERIOUSFLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS SOUTHEASTILLINOIS INITIALLY...AND THEN SPREAD NORTH WITH TIME LATE IN THEWEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED FORFURTHER DETAILS ON THIS HIGH IMPACT FLOODING THREAT THAT WILLEXIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXTWEEK...WITH ALL THE RIVERS ACRS THE ILX FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED SIGNIFICANTLY.

[Madmaxweather]

Things could get quite hairy around here with 3-6+ of more rainfall on the way. I am going to try to shoot some video of the Great Miami River within the next few days. It is mighty high right now and with another 1-2 inches of rain it going to start pouring over into towns nearby. In 1913 was the last time our town flooded since then dams and big levies were constructed but those levies may have a major challenge on their hands if we get the rainfall that the models are indicating.

[Indystorm]

And it begins. 4.06 inches from this event in Corydon so far as of the time of this report earlier this evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY

847 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0831 PM FLOOD CORYDON 38.21N 86.13W

04/23/2011 HARRISON IN TRAINED SPOTTER

BOTH BIG AND LITTLE INDIAN CREEK IN DOWNTOWN CORYDON IS

FLOODING OUT OF ITS BANKS WITH WATER OVER THE NEARBY

STREET...ENTERING PARKING LOTS...AND APPROACHING

BUSINESSES

[Thundersnow12]

And it begins.

with another good rain event starting up here in Louisville and will last hours looking at the radar.

I've lost track of how many rounds of heavy rain/storms we've had since I got here.

[tmagan]

With the SPC using the '***This is a particularly dangerous situation***' in some of their watches, it might be good for the local CWA's to use those in their Flash Flood Watches.

[janetjanet998]

some of thre next 24 hour rain forecast are now getting into the river forecast: (much more after that) this is going to be a long thread

here are some points to keep track of over the next few days..these are the main branches alot of major flooding on the smaller branches too

Mississippi River

Quincy now 23.5 which would be the 9th highest on record

St Louis 32.7 47th highest on record

Cape Girardeau 36.0 27th highest on record

Memphis 33.0 27th highest on record

OH river

Paducah 44.7 47th highest

Cario IL 52.7 17th highest

updates: note Cario IL may get in from both rivers

Mississippi River

Quincy now 23.3 which would be the 11th highest on record

St Louis 34.5 27th highest on record

Cape Girardeau 41.8 10th highest on record

Memphis 51.5 3rd highest on record (must be using > next 24 hours rainfall)

OH river

Paducah 49 19th highest

Cario IL 56.2 4th highest

[hoosierwx]

Historical Crests

(1) 42.20 ft on 03/28/1913

(2) 37.02 ft on 01/25/1937

(3) 35.30 ft on 03/08/1897

(4) 35.00 ft on 03/17/1907

(5) 34.20 ft on 03/30/1904

(6) 33.53 ft on 05/13/1961

(7) 33.22 ft on 01/11/2005

(8) 32.88 ft on 03/10/1945

(9) 32.60 ft on 01/15/1930

(10) 32.07 ft on 01/27/1959

Show More Historical Crests

42Record or near record flood is in progress. Severe damage occurs to home, businesses, roads, bridges and railroads in the flood plain. Some houses flood above the second story. U.S. Highway 50 is open, but there is water on each side of road. Anything on left bank 3 feet or lower of U.S. Highway 50 is flooded. Many evacuations are necessary.

37A very unusual flood is in progress. January 1937 is the last time a level was greater than 37 feet.

35Major flood is in progress. Residential, agricultural and business areas in flood plain of Shoals and rural Martin County severely flood. All islands in the flood plain completely flood. Flooding threatens county bridges and railroad. Many evacuations are necessary.

Above is the big one for this area as all of our water drains to this river. Right now forecast to reach 6th or 7th highest ever but I think we make a strong run at #2. Right now US 150 closed between Paoli and French Lick and SR 56 closed in West Baden Springs. US 150 and SR 56 Intersection at Prospect close to being closed and we are just getting started. I don't think we have really started backing up just yet.

[janetjanet998]

OH river at PAH ahead of forecast wasn't supposed to be at this level until 7am tomorrow

12z NAM dump 3--6 inches over the Wabash/lower ohio watershed next 48 hours

as someone else pointed out, the MS is also very high too and that will back the OH up even more(and vis versa)....not sure if this has ever been modeled?

[janetjanet998]

New Madrid crest 46 feet 2nd highest on record(1937)

IMPORTANT NOTICE

THIS FORECAST RISE IS BASED ON INCREASED RIVER

FLOW DUE TO EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ANY

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AFTER 48 HOURS MAY AGGRAVATE THE ONGOING

FLOOD POTENTIAL. BASED ON 5 DAYS OF FUTURE RAINFALL...RIVER STAGES MAY

POTENTIALLY BE 2 TO 3 FEET HIGHER.

KYC075-MOC133-143-251803-

/O.CON.KPAH.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/

/NMDM7.3.ER.110419T0300Z.110504T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NR/

903 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

..FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT NEW MADRID.* AT 8:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE

WAS 38.5 FEET.

* FLOOD STAGE IS 34.0 FEET.

* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.

* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 46.0 FEET BY

WEDNESDAY MAY 4TH.

* IMPACT...AT 48.0 FEET...THIS FLOOD WILL EXCEED THE HIGHEST STAGE ON

RECORD. LARGE AMOUNTS OF PROPERTY DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED.

EVACUATION OF MANY HOMES AND BUSINESSES BECOMES NECESSARY.

[Hoosier]

IND has 3.5" of rain in the forecast here but that's only through 00z Wed.

I suspect we will be well into moderate flood and possibly flirting with major flood stage on the Wabash if the wetter forecasts pan out.

[Madmaxweather]

The Ohio River will likely get near 60 but again it depends on how much rain falls upstream and down here in Cincinnati. Right now still 3-6 inches seem quite possible.

The river of concern in my area if the Great Miami River. In 1913 the cities of Dayton, Hamilton and Middletown were devastated by a massive flood and still today there are markers of how high the water went.

Here are the records for the Great Miami. Levies were built to withstand crest upwards of 24 feet after the 1913 flood. We were told that the Great Miami would never flood again in Middletown..

Historical Crests

(1) 22.50 ft on 03/26/1913

(2) 19.20 ft on 01/22/1959

(3) 17.50 ft on 02/01/1929

(4) 16.70 ft on 06/30/1958

(5) 16.60 ft on 01/27/1952

(6) 15.90 ft on 05/01/1933

(7) 15.80 ft on 01/25/1937

(8) 15.10 ft on 05/24/1968

(9) 14.70 ft on 01/01/1949

(10) 14.70 ft on 05/26/1989

[Cajun Thunder]

updates: note Cario IL may get in from both rivers

Mississippi River

Quincy now 23.3 which would be the 11th highest on record

St Louis 34.5 27th highest on record

Cape Girardeau 41.8 10th highest on record

Memphis 51.5 3rd highest on record (must be using > next 24 hours rainfall)

OH river

Paducah 49 19th highest

Cario IL 56.2 4th highest

Your Memphis stage is wrong. The 51.5 is at Helena. The crest at Memphis is only forecast to be 44.

This morning's forecasts for the sites you mentioned, based on 48 hours of precip for the Ohio and sites below St. Louis, per LMRFC.

Quincy 22.8, near crest now, 13th highest

St. Louis 35.5 on Wednesday, 20th highest

Cape Girardeau 44.5 on Friday, 6th highest

Memphis 44.0 on May 8th, 3rd highest

Paducah 55.0 on May 3, 2nd highest

Cairo 60.0 on May 3, record flood

Other sites near record below Cairo

New Madrid, equal flood of record on 4th

Tiptonville, TN, 1.25 feet above record on 4th

Caruthersville, MO, 1 foot above record on 6th

Helena, AR, 8th highest

Greenville, MS 0.8 feet above record on the 12th

Vicksburg, MS, 4th highest on 13th.

Natchez, MS, 1 foot above record on 15th

Red River Landing, LA, 8th highest on 16th

Donaldsonville, LA, 5th highest on 16th

Reserve, LA, 7th highest on 17th

New Orleans 20th highest on 17th. Note...Levees protect City of new Orleans to 20.0 feet, crest is forecast at 17.5.

[Indystorm]

We are being told this could beat 1937 in some counties down here

I was told that could never happen again

Absolutely unbelievable. My dad worked the 1937 flood in Civilian Conservation Corp assistance near Shawneetown which was relocated because of the 1937 experience. To hear that this could exceed 1937 in some places is astonishing.

[oldlogin]

The Ohio River will likely get near 60 but again it depends on how much rain falls upstream and down here in Cincinnati. Right now still 3-6 inches seem quite possible.

The river of concern in my area if the Great Miami River. In 1913 the cities of Dayton, Hamilton and Middletown were devastated by a massive flood and still today there are markers of how high the water went.

Here are the records for the Great Miami. Levies were built to withstand crest upwards of 24 feet after the 1913 flood. We were told that the Great Miami would never flood again in Middletown..

Historical Crests

(1) 22.50 ft on 03/26/1913

(2) 19.20 ft on 01/22/1959

(3) 17.50 ft on 02/01/1929

(4) 16.70 ft on 06/30/1958

(5) 16.60 ft on 01/27/1952

(6) 15.90 ft on 05/01/1933

(7) 15.80 ft on 01/25/1937

(8) 15.10 ft on 05/24/1968

(9) 14.70 ft on 01/01/1949

(10) 14.70 ft on 05/26/1989

Max---You might want to look this over

http://www.miamiconservancy.org/flood/dams.asp

[Jason]

1.25" of rain in Draffenville Ky in 8 mins

and .5" of Rain in Benton Ky in 5 Mins with the last cell that moved through

[janetjanet998]

We are being told this could beat 1937 in some counties down here

I was told that could never happen again

yeah thats because they put in the flood control(dammed smaller rivers up in ky) but it looks like alot of this rain will fall right on the river or near it rather then deeper into KY so the flood control may not help that much

[hoosierwx]

From LMK SWS:

...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING SITUATION POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ANOTHER INTENSE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERNINDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALLRATES COULD APPROACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE STRONGESTSTORMS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CAUSING RAPID FLASH FLOODINGAND RIVER RISES. WATER RESCUES AND EVACUATIONS HAVE OCCURRED TOTHE WEST WITH THIS LATEST BATCH OF RAINFALL. THE MOST LIKELY AREASTO SEE DANGEROUS FLOODING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN NORTH CENTRALKENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA WHERE EXCESSIVE RAIN HAS RECENTLYFALLEN. DUE TO THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...LESS THAN AN INCH OFRAIN WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

[janetjanet998]

This is fast becoming a serious flash flood situation in our region

Check out WPSD view photos on their facebook

http://www.facebook....TV/119187564568

training right over PAH and just upstream

not good at all

[hoosierwx]

Mesoscale Discussion 551< Previous MD Next MD > MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0551 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN/S-CNTRL KY...FAR NRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 242001Z - 242130Z TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN MO/WRN KY WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN AR NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING S OF THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S AND 80S...WHICH IS REINFORCING TIGHT SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. IN ADDITION...CONTINUED INFLUX OF 60S DEWPOINTS IS AIDING IN ELONGATED E-W ZONE OF PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. COMBINATION OF 30 KT S-SWLY LLJ EXIT REGION FOCUSED OVER THE FRONT AND MODERATE W-SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS FAVORING BACKBUILDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SERN MO AND WRN KY. CONTINUOUS TRAINING OF CELLS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES FROM 1 TO 2 IN/HR. MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS RESULTING IN WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...AREA VWP/S AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...STRONGER CELLS WILL POSE A SVR WEATHER RISK. IN ADDITION...SVR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NRN AR WILL APPROACH SERN MO/WRN KY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THOUGH A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR WEATHER THREAT. ..GARNER.. 04/24/2011

[hoosierwx]

Wow. This is not good.

[janetjanet998]

Wow. This is not good.

18z NAM contimues with insane rains amounts..ut back to the short term

only hope for overnight is if that huge comple over OK will turn more right(may be doing that) and that may keep the heaviest south of the OH river overnight(still mod-heavy rain though)

due to this afternoons training, the OH river gauges are once again running ahead of the 11am forecast at Paducah and Cario and by 7pm may be 1/2 foot higher then the updated forecast point..if it trains overnight then all bets are off

I hope people are paying attention with this being a holiday and all

[TheWeatherPimp]

Hopefully the 18z NAM is not right because it is downright scary for areas along the Ohio River - you would think we were measuring snow, not rain!

[CapitalKid]

only hope for overnight is if that huge comple over OK will turn more right(may be doing that) and that may keep the heaviest south of the OH river overnight(still mod-heavy rain though)

With all due respect JanetJanet998, I live south of the Ohio River (Frankfort, KY) and I'm watching the water rise around my house again. Last night I had to shovel water out of my sunporch.... I think I'd rather see the rain stay north of the OH River! lol

[TheWeatherPimp]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

FLOOD WATCH...RESENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

239 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY

LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING...

..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

.A BOUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN

MISSOURI INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY. REPEATED ROUNDS OF

THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL.

THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG IT INTO MISSOURI AND

PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH TO ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR MONDAY

NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS

FURTHER SOUTH TO ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEWLY STALLED

BOUNDARY AND SET OFF ADDITIONAL TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS LATE

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FINAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS

THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ENDING THE PERSISTENT HEAVY

RAINFALL.

ARZ026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MSZ001>014-TNZ003-004-019>021-

048>055-088>092-250400-

/O.NEW.KMEG.FF.A.0007.110426T0000Z-110428T0000Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-

LEE AR-PHILLIPS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TIPPAH-ALCORN-

TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-TATE-PRENTISS-COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-LAFAYETTE-

UNION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-LAUDERDALE-TIPTON-HAYWOOD-

CROCKETT-MADISON-CHESTER-HENDERSON-DECATUR-SHELBY-FAYETTE-

HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JONESBORO...HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...

WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...HELENA...SOUTHAVEN...

OLIVE BRANCH...CORINTH...IUKA...TUNICA...BOONEVILLE...

CLARKSDALE...BATESVILLE...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...MARTIN...

DRESDEN...PARIS...DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...MILAN...HUNTINGDON...

COVINGTON...JACKSON...LEXINGTON...BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN...

COLLIERVILLE...MEMPHIS...MILLINGTON...SOMERVILLE...BOLIVAR...

SAVANNAH

239 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH

WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...NORTH MISSISSIPPI

AND WEST TENNESSEE...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST

ARKANSAS...CRAIGHEAD...CRITTENDEN...CROSS...

LEE...MISSISSIPPI...PHILLIPS...POINSETT AND ST. FRANCIS. IN

NORTH MISSISSIPPI...ALCORN...BENTON...COAHOMA...DESOTO...

LAFAYETTE...MARSHALL...PANOLA...PRENTISS...QUITMAN...TATE...

TIPPAH...TISHOMINGO...TUNICA AND UNION. IN WEST TENNESSEE...

CARROLL...CHESTER...CROCKETT...DECATUR...DYER...FAYETTE...

GIBSON...HARDEMAN...HARDIN...HAYWOOD...HENDERSON...HENRY...

LAUDERDALE...MADISON...MCNAIRY...SHELBY...TIPTON AND WEAKLEY.

* FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

* TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND

NORTH OF I-40 WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-40. LOCALLY

HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY.

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUCH AS THESE MAY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD...

SIGNIFICANT...AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. THIS EVENT

MAY BE AS SEVERE AS THE MAY 1-2 2010 FLOODING IN PLACES. FLASH

FLOODING OF CITIES...RURAL AREAS...RIVERS...AND SMALL STREAMS

ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD

TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION

SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

[hoosierwx]

With all due respect JanetJanet998, I live south of the Ohio River (Frankfort, KY) and I'm watching the water rise around my house again. Last night I had to shovel water out of my sunporch.... I think I'd rather see the rain stay north of the OH River! lol

You may get your wish.

From LMK AFD:

AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT THE STALLED FRONTALBOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IL/IN TO BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARMFRONT. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SWING THE HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL MORE TOSOUTHERN INDIANA. AS A RESULT...PLAN TO LET THE SOUTHERN PORTION OFTHE FFA TO EXPIRE AT 2 AM EDT...HOWEVER WILL GIVE EVENING AND MIDSHIFT TIME TO EVALUATE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NORTHERN PORTION OF THEFFA HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY.

[Chicago Storm]

[Ozarkwx]

when you get a downpour in the middle of an ongoing heavy rain event in a town where Main Street runs between two hills. It is great to put an end to the drought in E. OK and part of AR, but jeesh. This strip of heavy precip is reminiscent of the 2009 ice storm that stretched from E. OK to KY.

[Indystorm]

Do what you can to stay safe and thanks for that video of Eureka Springs, Ozarkwx. Have visited your beautiful community and often wondered how it would fare in flash flooding.