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December 1-3 lake effect snow event


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that's a lot of fail dude. Sorry.

:lol:

I drove from Oswego to Buffalo to see October 12-13, 2006...where's your passion?

Nice work man, I took off from work on the Monday before with just the slightest glimmer of something happening. Drove in at 7 pm Thursday night in my little crappy 4x4 and punched the band for 7 hours, most insane chase ever. Pretty much changed me, haha. I think I was one of the last vehicles to make it out of Buffalo that night, they closed the thruway down directly behind me, haha. Rolled back into the Roch at 8am. Took me like 3 and half to 4 hours to get back home.

LEkid, Its not to late man, get out and punch that band a few times.

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Latest WRF, NAM based mesos from BUF really changed to creaming downtown and points just south:

I would guess that the max of the top panel is 2.64 based on the contouring within the blue......that's a lot of snow!!! :snowman:

wrf_precip36_F36.gif

wrf_precip36_F36.gif

(The BMJ NAM doesn't seem to generate maps for 36 hour totals...so here's the loop....same general idea though:

http://www.erh.noaa....w/precip01.html

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Yeah LEK, I agree. The sky seems to be the limit now. Someone just south of BUF will likely end up with 30" from this event.

Huge gradient it looks like. Southeast part of the city will get over twice as much if the band doesn't shif north.

More snow than I'll see this winter.

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Easily. 15" in West Seneca with thunder snow still coming down at 2-3"/hr

I don't think you could be in a better spot, my friend! Keep the reports coming!! I last spoke with my father at 7:30 and it seemed that the band had shifted north for at least the time being. I'd be p*ssed if I was home right now lol.

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Looks like a slight shift (5 miles or so when looped) to the north is in the offing, short term.

Might be just enough to get me in the edge of it. Just out walking the dogs and almost jumped out of my boots after a big flash of lightning - thunder was only a couple seconds behind. The edge of the "pinkinsh" color sky in the band to the south and patchy clear sky to the north is just about over my house right now.

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Off Ontario, our band is quite a bit less intense, but should change in next few hours. Also, we might be starting to assemble a second band to the south, with aid finally coming from the Erie band that looks to trasport some of its vertical circulation to the concave "indentation" north of Rochester. IR satellite is starting to "brighten up" a bit in this area. Peopl from just north of Pulaski to Barnes Corners may sneak in a few inches if it indeed materializes. (It's the southern feature that I put in my .gif animation yesterday off Ontario.)

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The band is starting to take on a more glaciated (non-convective) look compared to earlier this evening. Definitely more of a classic mid-winter type of LES band. Those in the heart of it will probably experience steady 1-2"/hr rates for the remainder of the overnight period....rather than 3"/hr for 10 minutes followed by 20 minutes of 0.5"/hr which I suspect has been the case up until this point.

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SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 3 FEET IN

THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER

HOUR LIKELY.

17 inches in West Seneca already with tons of thunder and lightning still.Coming down at a solid 2-3"/hr if not more. Cars stuck all over the place.

Wondering if by morning NWS will have upped the totals to 3-4 feet =]

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