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Severe threat april 14, Tornado outbreak possible


janetjanet998

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That's been their policy for as long as I can remember. I lived in Fort Smith for 15 years and they set off the sirens maybe three times other than tests. Worked out real well until '96...

Yeah...that was a bad situation.

We're back home now, we went across the street to the neighbors'. Nothing happened here in Roland that I know of, it really didn't seem that bad at all. Of course we could hear different tomorrow, but for now things look ok.

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Is it because they don't want to open the shelters up or what? I don't know if it's a good policy to not open the shelters up until the tornado sirens go off because that would put people in harms way trying to get to the shelters.

I don't remember them having any public shelters when I lived there.

For Oklahoma, as bad as it's been, this evening has gone much better than I expected. (this statement conditional on future reports of past events)

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I don't remember them having any public shelters when I lived there.

For Oklahoma, as bad as it's been, this evening has gone much better than I expected. (this statement conditional on future reports of past events)

They have shelters at a lot of the Fort Smith Public Schools now.

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Danville, AR population 2,392.

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL YELL COUNTY UNTIL

1130 PM CDT...

AT 1053 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD..

THIS DEVELOPING TORNADO WAS LOCATED 2 MILES EAST OF FOURCHE VALLEY...

OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DANVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DEVELOPING TORNADO INCLUDE...

DANVILLE...

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That storm is developing a decent couplet on radar. Well defined hook, also.

Edit: Well, it was..presentation on reflectivity is going back and forth. The SRV presentation still shows good rotation, though. And headed toward Dardanelle and Russellville; the latter is the largest city in the area.

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That couplet is headed right for the nuclear plant W of Russellville.

Well that's not good.

Other point of interest is the southern cell heading toward Mt. Ida, AR is "the quartz crystal capital of the U.S. and is known worldwide for its quartz deposits."

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According to NRC, the plant is located in London, which is WNW of Dardanelle and Russellville, on the lake.

The rotation is heading almost directly for it, but it seems to be weakening. I thought it was turning left, but like hurricane watching, I'm often wrong. ;)

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RT @JesseJHamilton: BREAKING NEWS: Atoka Co. Sheriff's Dept in OK: At least a dozen homes destroyed by tornado; people missing (search underway)

Then something about a chaser missing?

I saw some other people on twitter talking about a missing chaser. Any one know?

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I think we'll see the tornado threat ramp up somewhat as we approach dawn. As been mentioned by others earlier, the mid-level cooling coupled with the northward moisture advection will help to destablize the warm sector and help to make the storms remain more surface-based. Given the extremely high helicities expected to remain across the warm sector through the morning hours, I would watch the southern end of that line for any cells that remain semi-discrete. It is possible that we could see a couple significant tornadoes form in the SE AR/NE LA/W-central MS region during the 09-15z time frame, as the parameters seem to ramp up during this time period.

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Here's a shot from the south of the Atoka tornado about to cross US-69, followed by the incredible RFD cut as it passed off to our east.

2011-04-15_5633.jpg

2011-04-15_5638.jpg

Needless to say, damage in Tushka and Bruno was quite significant, looking to be in the EF-3 to EF-4 range. On US-69, the path appeared to be well over half a mile in width, but perhaps there was more of a component of its motion parallel to the road than I thought at the time.

Some of my friends got absolutely incredible video from the west of the circulation:

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over/under on 75 tornadoes the next two days

Over.

Over 125

if both days live up do their potential and count as one outbreak this may be in the top 5 outbreaks pure numbers wise. super outbreak has 148 but it was likley much higher if if that same outbreak occured today.

I say 65 today(through 12z friday) and maybe 65tomorrow for starters

I think 169 is the number to beat for >24 hour period (May 29-30, 2004).

Yeah I figured go big, although I'm going to bust high :P

mega jinx

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Only 12 tornado reports from the day, which is much less than anticipated, and much less than one would think based on radar imagery yesterday. I think the close spacing of the cells might have been a problem in the end, tornadoes are a very fragile thing in the face of cell to cell interaction, and can easily be thrown off by that.

This might be a manifestation of too much instability, which led to too many strong thunderstorms close together.

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