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Holy sh it it's back


Ginx snewx

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Best part about that is that Socks agreed with my forecast! lol

And we both ended up busting. I wasn't thinking as much of a torch as you, but agreed on below normal snowfall, and we know how that worked out, fortunately...However, the idea of December being the coldest month and February being the mildest was an accurate one.

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And we both ended up busting. I wasn't thinking as much of a torch as you, but agreed on below normal snowfall, and we know how that worked out, fortunately...However, the idea of December being the coldest month and February being the mildest was an accurate one.

81" at Logan airport....impossible to get in a strong Nina. :snowman:

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And we both ended up busting. I wasn't thinking as much of a torch as you, but agreed on below normal snowfall, and we know how that worked out, fortunately...However, the idea of December being the coldest month and February being the mildest was an accurate one.

Yeah, oh well. Kevin and Ginx use it to flame me but to be honest I think the seasonal forecast (for me) is just something fun to do.

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Sorry Nate...quoting from my winter forecast thread on your post...

"I like the Atlantic SSTs and high snow cover but I don't think this can overcome such a powerful Niña. Even if we do see a -NAO this winter, which is somewhat likely in my opinion, it'll be more like a 54-55 type of block where the -NAO is displaced a bit south and the PV north of Alaska dominates the pattern. I like around 40-45" for BOS with temperatures slightly above average; March should be a good month for winter lovers, however. "

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Yeah, oh well. Kevin and Ginx use it to flame me but to be honest I think the seasonal forecast (for me) is just something fun to do.

Ryan sorry but I was really happy the DB was back, had to use you as a link. I mean payback is a muthafooka LOL seriously your reasoning was very sound but it's a crapshoot in NE every year. I posted article after article showing why NAO was the main playa up here but was discredited.

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Sorry Nate...quoting from my winter forecast thread on your post...

"I like the Atlantic SSTs and high snow cover but I don't think this can overcome such a powerful Niña. Even if we do see a -NAO this winter, which is somewhat likely in my opinion, it'll be more like a 54-55 type of block where the -NAO is displaced a bit south and the PV north of Alaska dominates the pattern. I like around 40-45" for BOS with temperatures slightly above average; March should be a good month for winter lovers, however. "

No this is fine...the idea of a -NAO in December that I forecasted came to fruition, as did the idea of a milder February with blocking breaking down and the mean trough moving into the west. March did turn cold in the 2nd half as everyone was expecting in a Niña, but just a little bit too late for most of us. I'd probably give my winter forecast a B/B-...I messed up snowfall and how quickly the blocking would break down in January (didn't happen until after the 1/12 KU, and then the MJO-induced +PNA saved us), but the general progression wasn't terrible. As expected, the -NAO was dominant early in the winter, the strong Niña dominant late in the winter. Not an awful call but not as good as my 09-10 forecast.

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Jerry this my favorite quote from that thread from Ray to me

Ginx snewx, on 26 September 2010 - 02:41 AM, said:

Awesome it appears we are lock sync in the exact thinking, unreal how we independently arrive at what is basically the same forecast including two majors. Good luck wishes to you are the same to me. Old man winter my man.

I'm not sure how two weenies in a pod could both independently arrive at snow. lol

:weenie:

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81" at Logan airport....impossible to get in a strong Nina. :snowman:

I feel like this winter basically proves it's all about the NAO giving us big coastals. We can do well in any ENSO state as long as the NAO is negative, although a weak Niño is certainly the most preferable followed by weak Niña. NYC had its third snowiest winter on record this season, something we all thought impossible given the Pacific. However, once the NAO blocking broke down in late January, almost nothing fell in Central Park, and even New England suffered a bit in February and particularly March. I was thinking the strong La Niña pattern would assert itself earlier...it took its time but did arrive.

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Yeah, oh well. Kevin and Ginx use it to flame me but to be honest I think the seasonal forecast (for me) is just something fun to do.

Then again this was Kevs in August in BIrvs thread

Posted 16 August 2010 - 07:50 PM

BOS: 28''

PVD: 26''

ORH: 58''

ASH: 62''

MHT: 64''

HYA: 13''

EWB: 19''

BDL: 39''

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My description of winter was awful even if the bottom line was good.

Jerry your early call

Posted 16 August 2010 - 08:47 PM

BOS: 82

PVD: 66

ORH: 111

ASH: 85

MHT: 100

HYA: 49

EWB: 64

BDL: 91

1995-96 combined with 93-94 and 60-61. I'm not kidding...this one is going to be one for the ages. Wildcard? Nina gets way stronger than I think it will.

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My description of winter was awful even if the bottom line was good.

right for the wrong reasons.

"A big basis of my winter forecast thread. I think it comes in 2...once in Feb, once in March. Residual cold in Feb from the late January boreal invasion with a suddenly active northern jet should do the trick and I agree....Miller B time....biggest storm since 2005 and possibly eclipsing it...the February event. March will be interesting also since Nina Marches are frequently magical....but I suspect it will be the glorified warm front and after that event, winter's over in a big way."

oops

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right for the wrong reasons.

"A big basis of my winter forecast thread. I think it comes in 2...once in Feb, once in March. Residual cold in Feb from the late January boreal invasion with a suddenly active northern jet should do the trick and I agree....Miller B time....biggest storm since 2005 and possibly eclipsing it...the February event. March will be interesting also since Nina Marches are frequently magical....but I suspect it will be the glorified warm front and after that event, winter's over in a big way."

oops

You used to be relevant back then on that board.

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