kab2791 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Because I can... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 18, 2011 Author Share Posted March 18, 2011 For Lower MI 12Z GFS showed a major ice storm 12Z GGEM showed a Major snowstorm 12Z UKMET has a track through central IL through the OH river with the SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 For Lower MI 12Z GFS showed a major ice storm 12Z GGEM showed a Major snowstorm 12Z UKMET has a track through central IL through the OH river with the SLP. I frown at all 3 of these! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 18, 2011 Author Share Posted March 18, 2011 12Z Euro (Frozen QPF only) DET: 0.62...0.17 is marginal out of that DTW: 0.44 BTL: 0.65...part of that is rather marginal PTK: 0.53 MKE: 0.75 GRB: 1.02 MSP: 1.29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Me getting screwed is like clockwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Me getting screwed is like clockwork. read that a certain way and it doesn't sound so bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 18, 2011 Author Share Posted March 18, 2011 DTX: Growing more concerned with cooler temps supporting more/mostly frozen QPF DIP IN THE HEIGHT FIELD AMPLIFIED BY THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVEOVER THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL ALLOW THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF AN EXPANSIVE 1040MB ARCTIC HIGH TO PENETRATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY PERIOD. THE EVOLVING NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW A COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER IN. ASSUMING THE STRENGTH IS VALID...THIS WOULD PLACE THE EFFECTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. CONDITIONS STILL LOOK TO DETERIORATE WITHIN THAT TUESDAY EVENING TO WEDNESDAY WINDOW AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE OVERRUNNING SCENARIO INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH A COOL RESIDENT BOUNDARY LAYER TUCKED BENEATH THE BROADENING ELEVATED WARM LAYER BRINGING PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES THROUGHOUT. MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDING COOLER THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT RUN...WITH SOUNDING/THICKNESS DATA FAVORING MORE FROZEN/FREEZING OVER LIQUID FORM. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS...BUT WILL NUDGE THE FORECAST MORE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THIS PACKAGE. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=DTX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 12Z Euro (Frozen QPF only) DET: 0.62...0.17 is marginal out of that DTW: 0.44 BTL: 0.65...part of that is rather marginal PTK: 0.53 MKE: 0.75 GRB: 1.02 MSP: 1.29 Well, without a doubt this has the looks of an interesting storm. There haven't been many big early spring snowstorms here recently. The main one I remember (although apparently 2005 had an interesting one in some parts of the area) was the Good Friday 2008 snowstorm, which was mostly notable b/c it stranded travelers for a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 read that a certain way and it doesn't sound so bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Well, without a doubt this has the looks of an interesting storm. There haven't been many big early spring snowstorms here recently. The main one I remember (although apparently 2005 had an interesting one in some parts of the area) was the Good Friday 2008 snowstorm, which was mostly notable b/c it stranded travelers for a day or two. Look up April 7, 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Well, without a doubt this has the looks of an interesting storm. There haven't been many big early spring snowstorms here recently. The main one I remember (although apparently 2005 had an interesting one in some parts of the area) was the Good Friday 2008 snowstorm, which was mostly notable b/c it stranded travelers for a day or two. March 21/22 i believe it was? That one? That was a very sweet event and my first 12+ event since the Jan 2005 clipper on roids. This is by far one of my favorite snow storms since moving here. It was like a Jan storm with the blowing and drifting ( thus not the typical wet spring snow storm ) etc with some very nice snowfall rates. The snow stuck to the ground the moment is began. A underrated storm for sure. Made up for the buzzkill earlier in the month that slammed Ohio. Couple of obs from that. Battle Creek, Kellogg Airport Lat: 42.3 Lon: -85.25 Elev: 939 Last Update on Mar 21, 12:53 pm EDT Snow Freezing Fog Temp: 27°F (-3°C) Humidity: 89 % Wind Speed: E 9 MPH Barometer: 30.20" (1024.1 mb) Dewpoint: 24°F (-4°C) Wind Chill: 18°F (-8°C) Visibility: 0.25 mi. Battle Creek, Kellogg Airport Lat: 42.3 Lon: -85.25 Elev: 939 Last Update on Mar 21, 2:53 pm EDT Heavy Snow Freezing Fog Temp: 28°F (-2°C) Humidity: 88 % Wind Speed: E 12 G 18 MPH Barometer: 30.11" (1020.9 mb) Dewpoint: 25°F (-4°C) Wind Chill: 18°F (-8°C) Visibility: 0.25 mi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Look up April 7, 2000 Per the data had about a half inch of rain followed by 3.8" snowfall. Then there was another 1.6" 2 days later. Guessing this was a big one not far away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Per the data had about a half inch of rain followed by 3.8" snowfall. Then there was another 1.6" 2 days later. Guessing this was a big one not far away? A late season winter storm struck southcentral and southeast Wisconsin with a prolonged period of moderate to occasionally heavy snow, northeast winds 20-25 mph (17-22 knots) gusting to 35-45 mph (30-41 knots), poor visibilities of 1/4 to 3/4 miles, and temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s. At the start of the winter storm the snow was melting just about as fast as it was falling, but by mid-afternoon the snow was accumulating which led to considerable blowing and drifting of snow. Snow drifts attained a height of 2 to 4 feet in exposed locations. Some light freezing drizzle was observed at times in between the convective-like snow bands that rotated northwestward across the area. During the late afternoon hours near-blizzard or near white-out conditions were occasionally observed which led to numerous vehicle accidents and indirectly-related injuries in some cases. There was at least 1 indirectly-related vehicle accident fatality (Rock County). The storm finally let up during the nighttime hours. Snow accumulations over southcentral Wisconsin varied from 3 to 5 inches, but western Dane county had accumulations of 5 to 8.5 inches. Accumulations over southeastern Wisconsin varied from 4 to 7 inches, but the West Allis area (Milwaukee County) picked up 9.4 inches and the West Bend area (Washington County) registered 9 inches. The city of Racine (Racine County) had the highest measured wind gust of 47 mph (41 knots). Synoptically, the responsible low pressure moved across southern Kansas through central Illinois to northern Indiana into lower Michigan. Moisture evaporating from ice-free Lake Michigan probably enhanced the snow accumulations across southeastern Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 A late season winter storm struck southcentral and southeast Wisconsin with a prolonged period of moderate to occasionally heavy snow, northeast winds 20-25 mph (17-22 knots) gusting to 35-45 mph (30-41 knots), poor visibilities of 1/4 to 3/4 miles, and temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s. At the start of the winter storm the snow was melting just about as fast as it was falling, but by mid-afternoon the snow was accumulating which led to considerable blowing and drifting of snow. Snow drifts attained a height of 2 to 4 feet in exposed locations. Some light freezing drizzle was observed at times in between the convective-like snow bands that rotated northwestward across the area. During the late afternoon hours near-blizzard or near white-out conditions were occasionally observed which led to numerous vehicle accidents and indirectly-related injuries in some cases. There was at least 1 indirectly-related vehicle accident fatality (Rock County). The storm finally let up during the nighttime hours. Snow accumulations over southcentral Wisconsin varied from 3 to 5 inches, but western Dane county had accumulations of 5 to 8.5 inches. Accumulations over southeastern Wisconsin varied from 4 to 7 inches, but the West Allis area (Milwaukee County) picked up 9.4 inches and the West Bend area (Washington County) registered 9 inches. The city of Racine (Racine County) had the highest measured wind gust of 47 mph (41 knots). Synoptically, the responsible low pressure moved across southern Kansas through central Illinois to northern Indiana into lower Michigan. Moisture evaporating from ice-free Lake Michigan probably enhanced the snow accumulations across southeastern Wisconsin. Thanks. Interesting storm. Grand Rapids evidently picked up 6.4" from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 March 21/22 i believe it was? That one? That was a very sweet event and my first 12+ event since the Jan 2005 clipper on roids. This is by far one of my favorite snow storms since moving here. It was like a Jan storm with the blowing and drifting ( thus not the typical wet spring snow storm ) etc with some very nice snowfall rates. The snow stuck to the ground the moment is began. A underrated storm for sure. Made up for the buzzkill earlier in the month that slammed Ohio. Couple of obs from that. Yes it was! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 wisconsinsix should have started the thread. Every time he does he get hit good with snow (or things trend in our favor). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Wasn't this Good Friday storm in 2008 the one with the sharp northern/NNE gradient? lol, I got 4" with that one, very forgettable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 wisconsinsix should have started the thread. Every time he does he get hit good with snow (or things trend in our favor). I did get hit with 3-4 inches with both of the storm threads I have done, but I'm not convinced I'm good luck, even for your neck of the woods. Hoosier should do all these threads, since his efforts resulted in the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Wasn't this Good Friday storm in 2008 the one with the sharp northern/NNE gradient? lol, I got 4" with that one, very forgettable. I would think you would've been on the southern end of that one, if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 18, 2011 Author Share Posted March 18, 2011 I would think you would've been on the southern end of that one, if anything. Heck no...I was on the very northern fringes of the axis. (bordering Detroit to the north) On the morning of Good Friday my forecast was 1" or less, ended with 4" and a WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Heck no...I was on the very northern fringes of the axis. (bordering Detroit to the north) On the morning of Good Friday my forecast was 1" or less, ended with 4" and a WSW. On the 12z Euro, does it occlude in the plains, al la dec 12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 On the 12z Euro, does it occlude in the plains, al la dec 12? Sort of maybe...the low elongates/weakens eastward over Central IL then southern IN/OH...track is similar to 2/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Sort of maybe...the low elongates/weakens eastward over Central IL then southern IN/OH...track is similar to 2/20 Wow there's another one behind it. Crazy with it being in the 60's recently. I smell the flu bug coming with these temp differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Who's going to do the Euro play-by-play since moneyboy's banning? Furthermore, who's going to stay up for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Who's going to do the Euro play-by-play since moneyboy's banning? Furthermore, who's going to stay up for it? Well that was one good thing about that guy. It won't be so much that someone else can't do the play by play, but more so who will stay up to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 Who's going to do the Euro play-by-play since moneyboy's banning? Furthermore, who's going to stay up for it? Not me...I usually post QPF numbers, but that cannot be done till 7-8am for me now...damn DST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Wasn't this Good Friday storm in 2008 the one with the sharp northern/NNE gradient? lol, I got 4" with that one, very forgettable. Yes. The heaviest was just west/wsw of here. Kalamazoo to the lake and down to IN line ended up with 14-16" from it. Heck no...I was on the very northern fringes of the axis. (bordering Detroit to the north) On the morning of Good Friday my forecast was 1" or less, ended with 4" and a WSW. This system ( this thread is about ) has a few similarites to that good Friday storm interestingly enough as there could be a decent cut off the farther north and east/ene/ne you are. Just a matter of where that line is. Who's going to do the Euro play-by-play since moneyboy's banning? Furthermore, who's going to stay up for it? I can't do text output ( for now ) but can do the rest. We ( sv ) are now working on getting the text output from the euro. I have been up a bit later again and so if i am up i'll try and get it up when the euro rolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Who's going to do the Euro play-by-play since moneyboy's banning? Furthermore, who's going to stay up for it? Those of us with severe mental illness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Those of us with severe mental illness. I'll see you at 2-2:30ish.. Speaking of. Count me among those who wants a little more blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I'll see you at 2-2:30ish.. Speaking of. Count me among those who wants a little more blocking. Whiff storm for me, so no need. But if I had a legit shot...maybe. And that's pretty scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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