earthlight Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Snow for everybody at 174 hours..surface low is over OH transferring off the M/A coast. It's coming from due west, though...so the SW flow has yet to arrive in the mid levels and surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Yup, it's a straight up snowstorm at 180 hours for everybody...surface low is off the coast of OC MD at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Looks like the primary slides under us and we stay all snow, theres a really cold airmass to the north of the storm and it keeps the low south of us which would be a good snowstorm if this run is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Yup, it's a straight up snowstorm at 180 hours for everybody...surface low is off the coast of OC MD at 180 How much QPF does it give? And is there a storm before the current one on the new Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 One key to the wintry threat is keeping that digging trough off the coast of the Pacific NW for as long as possible next Sun-Mon. If it moves inland toward the Rockies too quickly (like the 12z ECMWF showed), that pumps heights up over the eastern US. Another very interesting thing about this ECMWF run is that the ridging over W Canada and the Greenland block act in tandem to force the polar vortex to dig all the way to SE Quebec by next Mon. That sets up an awesome confluence zone for the incoming storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 One thing I caution in this very fast flow pattern, be careful in the medium to long-range with any computer model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 FWIW, the GFS also has the same thing, surface and 850's look cold enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 The Euro's depiction is pretty awesome! The large block and strong polar vortex over Canada establish strong confluence associated with a broad area of high pressure. The flow from the west seems sufficient with moisture. The pattern as modeled/depicted at h5 needs to verify if we are going to see snow. With no block the low would cut well to our W and warm air would keep the entire area as rain. The block keeps the SE ridge at bay and the low is forced underneath. This run verbatim would be a moderate/significant snowstorm in NYC. At this point it just remains a possibility. Last night's EURO was impressive, tonight's 0z GFS is getting better. Let's watch how things evolve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 If that low can transfer quickly south of us, then that would be a great turnaround from the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Can someone post the images from the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 0z Euro ensembles really hitting at the -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 One thing I caution in this very fast flow pattern, be careful in the medium to long-range with any computer model. I use this logic in any flow/pattern. Can someone post the images from the euro? I would also like to see these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 0z Euro ensembles really hitting at the -NAO Lol, This says it will start tanking starting tomorrow. Sounds good to me. I imagine it will be quite East based at first though but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I use this logic in any flow/pattern. It's more true in a fast-flow La Nina pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 It's more true in a fast-flow La Nina pattern. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 angle of the sun is all wrong, LOL. Lets see if the 12z ECMF can keep this solution or if it pushes it back yet again or cuts it like 12z 02/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 angle of the sun is all wrong, LOL. Lets see if the 12z ECMF can keep this solution or if it pushes it back yet again or cuts it like 12z 02/14 the 12Z GFS cuts it into the lakes region -- will be interesting if the 12Z EURO holds or gives in to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 The changes between the GFS at 0z and 12z are very large and have an impact on what transpires. The depiction at H5 of the future pattern on the GFS at 12z is not conducive for snow and it is vastly different then the 0z EURO. Let's see what the EURO depicts at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 12z GGEM appears to be closer to 0z euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 12z GGEM appears to be closer to 0z euro: Clearly models are all attempting to sort out the handling of the trough out west and the effect it has on the eventual progression of the system, coupled with the confluence and polar vortex over Canada. Hghts want to rise in response to the SW energy in the base of the trough allowing for warming out ahead of the system as it attempts to cut. Question remains how stubborn is the block, how persistent is the confluence, and where does the polar vortex setup? I think the best solution for our area would result from a flatter more broad trough that ejects moisture/energy under the area of confluence and slides it from W to E. Such an overrunning setup is the best case scenario for our area that limits WAA. In order to get snow in this setup, everything would have to evolve in a manner that favors the dominant blocking/confluence as it depicted by the 0z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 12z GGEM appears to be closer to 0z euro: Then I would go with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 hr 156 low in central indy.......850's and surface south of dc....light snow into phl...12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 hr 162 light snow for the whole area...mod-heavy back in western pa....850's and surface south of dc hr 168 low has jump to the coast.......mod snow phl-nyc....surface and 850's south of dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 hr 174 low moves off coast...light snow lingers for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 12z EURO similar to its 0z counterpart. The model continues to depict a strong block, strong confluence, and a large polar vortex that prevent that LP from advancing north. Once again the EURO forces/squashes the LP under the confluence and results in a weak broad area of LP associated with moderate precip moving in a W to E fashion. This run shows a snowy solution for NYC but it is a weak system and not associated with much QPF verbatim on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Nice snowstorm this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 hr 174 low moves off coast...light snow lingers for the area question is - historically which model handles these set ups the best at this range ? 7 days ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Very nice. Got colder then 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Nice snowstorm this run John, QPF ny/nj? Thanks, Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 John, QPF ny/nj? Thanks, Rossi about .25-.35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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