Over/under for amount of snowpack left

[ORH_wxman]

What this captures incredibly well is the differenial between say mansfield/north attleboro/north easton/sharon/stoughton with say south easton, taunton, attleboro...it's incredible.

This is the first time I think it's REALLY obvious on the snow depth maps too.

The tight gradient in snow pack seems to follow where the warm front set up on the night of Feb 5-6th.

Obviously thats not the sole reason for the gradient, but I'm sure it helped some.That's been where the seasonal gradient has been too.

[CoastalWx]

Kevin should be fine. I think he'll be over a foot.

[ORH_wxman]

Kevin should be fine. I think he'll be over a foot.

I cannot see how he won't be. I mean look at the pics I snapped just a couple hours ago above and I know he has similar depth...still nearly 2 feet on the ground. I can't imagine us losing more than 6" between now and this time tomorrow night...never mind 12".

[CoastalWx]

I cannot see how he won't be. I mean look at the pics I snapped just a couple hours ago above and I know he has similar depth...still nearly 2 feet on the ground. I can't imagine us losing more than 6" between now and this time tomorrow night...never mind 12".

Yeah no kidding. It's going to take a supernova to melt all that...lol.

I still find it impressive that your front stairs and shrubs are still completely buried...as if you just got a 20" storm..lol.

[dabize]

Just came from visiting a guy near Nobscot Hill at the Framingham/Sudbury line - the hill is a local high point at 620 feet, this guy might have been at 400 ft or so.

Temp was 48 on my car thermometer (reasonably accurate usually). Drove down the hill into Sudbury, immediately went down to 41. Came back home (I live in a low spot - 200 ft) 35 degrees.

Altitude torch around here.......

[cheetah440]

I'm all for the slow pack shrinkage but we could us a 2-3" fresher. The pack is getting dirty.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah no kidding. It's going to take a supernova to melt all that...lol.

I still find it impressive that your front stairs and shrubs are still completely buried...as if you just got a 20" storm..lol.

I've really learned over the years that rain (esp >36F) just destroys snow pack...and so does warm fog (>40F)...I think avoiding rain in the Feb 5-6 storm and having the marginal glaze the whole time really protected us a bit...while even your area got rain in the mid to upper 30s (and kissed 40F at the peak). Then obviously all those days where its 33-34F here and 37-38F there add up, but I think the big thing are those little weaselish ice storms that sort of cement the pack here while other areas actually are losing pack in the same system.W of BOS in the storm liek where Ray is had like 33-34F rain, so it wasn't too damaging.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I'm still amazed that 90% of my front yard is still completely untracked. My kids play in the back and the dog won't go up over the bankings...

Even the squirrels sense it is sacred ground

[HoarfrostHubb]

I've really learned over the years that rain (esp >36F) just destroys snow pack...and so does warm fog (>40F)...I think avoiding rain in the Feb 5-6 storm and having the marginal glaze the whole time really protected us a bit...while even your area got rain in the mid to upper 30s (and kissed 40F at the peak). Then obviously all those days where its 33-34F here and 37-38F there add up, but I think the big thing are those little weaselish ice storms that sort of cement the pack here while other areas actually are losing pack in the same system.W of BOS in the storm liek where Ray is had like 33-34F rain, so it wasn't too damaging.

sneaky, cute ice storms...

The fog Friday (will there be fog?) could be an issue

[CoastalWx]

I've really learned over the years that rain (esp >36F) just destroys snow pack...and so does warm fog (>40F)...I think avoiding rain in the Feb 5-6 storm and having the marginal glaze the whole time really protected us a bit...while even your area got rain in the mid to upper 30s (and kissed 40F at the peak). Then obviously all those days where its 33-34F here and 37-38F there add up, but I think the big thing are those little weaselish ice storms that sort of cement the pack here while other areas actually are losing pack in the same system.W of BOS in the storm liek where Ray is had like 33-34F rain, so it wasn't too damaging.

Yeah it's almost like there are two boundaries or gradients if you will, of snowpack. The first area is out by you...maybe 800-1000'. That can probably extend down to Kevin...and maybe even over to Ray. Then there is the area near BOS and perhaps the west burbs and off to the south by about 15-20 miles. That second boundary to the south, really separates the areas that got torched during the Feb 5-6 storm. Like you said, it's not totally from that storm alone, but it helped I think. It basically would follow the outline of the map you posted earlier in the evening. Probably just north of Bob and ene to near GHG or so.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah it's almost like there are two boundaries or gradients if you will, of snowpack. The first area is out by you...maybe 800-1000'. That can probably extend down to Kevin...and maybe even over to Ray. Then there is the area near BOS and perhaps the west burbs and off to the south by about 15-20 miles. That second boundary to the south, really separates the areas that got torched during the Feb 5-6 storm. Like you said, it's not totally from that storm alone, but it helped I think. It basically would follow the outline of the map you posted earlier in the evening. Probably just north of Bob and ene to near GHG or so.

While it wasn't a massive deal...the Jan 18 storm did the ice thing too here after the front end dump. BOS kind of got screwed in that one while the suburbs near Ray got like 6-7" before the flip. I can't remember what you had, but I think Logan airport did crappy.

[CoastalWx]

While it wasn't a massive deal...the Jan 18 storm did the ice thing too here after the front end dump. BOS kind of got screwed in that one while the suburbs near Ray got like 6-7" before the flip. I can't remember what you had, but I think Logan airport did crappy.

2.3". Logan had 1.9". That was one of the lousier storms.

[Organizing Low]

I've really learned over the years that rain (esp >36F) just destroys snow pack...and so does warm fog (>40F)...I think avoiding rain in the Feb 5-6 storm and having the marginal glaze the whole time really protected us a bit...while even your area got rain in the mid to upper 30s (and kissed 40F at the peak). Then obviously all those days where its 33-34F here and 37-38F there add up, but I think the big thing are those little weaselish ice storms that sort of cement the pack here while other areas actually are losing pack in the same system.W of BOS in the storm liek where Ray is had like 33-34F rain, so it wasn't too damaging.

agree

and on the fog account

worst torches like jan 08 are increasing dewpoints and fog that soften the snow and then ends with a 6+ hr rain event that washes the softened pack away.

[ORH_wxman]

agree

and on the fog account

worst torches like jan 08 are increasing dewpoints and fog that soften the snow and then ends with a 6+ hr rain event that washes the softened pack away.

Yeah this torch doesn't have the warm fog like Jan '08 and doesn't have the final blow of a 50F rainstorm like Jan '08 had which is why we should come out of this in okay shape.That was a horrific torch...an all timer.

[nzucker]

Yeah this torch doesn't have the warm fog like Jan '08 and doesn't have the final blow of a 50F rainstorm like Jan '08 had which is why we should come out of this in okay shape.That was a horrific torch...an all timer.

It's all about the rain...that's what causes the snowpack to disappear mostly. When you stay around 50/35, all you get is a chilly layer of air right against the snow surface from the low dewpoints that keeps you from losing too much.

Are we supposed to be seeing a big spike in dews tomorrow with fog? It seems as if the airmass is staying pretty dry so far?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah this torch doesn't have the warm fog like Jan '08 and doesn't have the final blow of a 50F rainstorm like Jan '08 had which is why we should come out of this in okay shape.That was a horrific torch...an all timer.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWLBljvEG-M&feature=related

the horror... the horror...

You don't see much of a fog threat?

[ORH_wxman]

It's all about the rain...that's what causes the snowpack to disappear mostly. When you stay around 50/35, all you get is a chilly layer of air right against the snow surface from the low dewpoints that keeps you from losing too much.

Are we supposed to be seeing a big spike in dews tomorrow with fog? It seems as if the airmass is staying pretty dry so far?

I don't see a huge spike in dews coming...there could be a brief period for a few hours before the front moves in, but I think for the most part, it will be similar to today. Maybe a tick higher, but it certainly doesn't look like a whole day of 48F dewpoints.

[Organizing Low]

Yeah this torch doesn't have the warm fog like Jan '08 and doesn't have the final blow of a 50F rainstorm like Jan '08 had which is why we should come out of this in okay shape.That was a horrific torch...an all timer.

from a met standpoint, 2008 it was pretty ridic to see +10 850s in early janaury all the way up to here and tornado outbreak in the midwest.

as for the torch properties of 08, the word that comes to mind was just relentless.

first the temps, then the dewpoints, then the pea soup fog, then the heavy rain and wind.....it just kept getting worse and worse lol

[ORH_wxman]

from a met standpoint, 2008 it was pretty ridic to see +10 850s in early janaury all the way up to here and tornado outbreak in the midwest.

as for the torch properties of 08, the word that comes to mind was just relentless.

first the temps, then the dewpoints, then the pea soup fog, then the heavy rain and wind.....it just kept getting worse and worse lol

Did you get your entire pack wiped out in that one? I know you obviously had more than the 17" I had on the ground before it started. You must have had 2-3 feet up there on the ground. Epic winter there....but even you guys had a nasty torch. I couldn't remember if you lost it all (except piles of course) or not.

[Organizing Low]

Did you get your entire pack wiped out in that one? I know you obviously had more than the 17" I had on the ground before it started. You must have had 2-3 feet up there on the ground. Epic winter there....but even you guys had a nasty torch. I couldn't remember if you lost it all (except piles of course) or not.

i lost it all pretty much

went from 73cm to 4cm on the ground

28 inches lost

ive never seen snow melt so efficiently, i wish i had taken before and after pics like you

even the piles (similar to you and kev's snowbanks currently) were all but obliterated.....it was dumbfounding....and historic here.

it was the fog and rain in the end that killed it, the snow just vaporized.

the torch is what ruined that winter and why for me, it still ranks behind 92-93 as my fav winter.

[mulen]

lost the snowpack down here in NYC it was a special time i'll never live i suppose to see a month of real winter like that again see ya.

[ORH_wxman]

i lost it all pretty much

went from 73cm to 4cm on the ground

28 inches lost

ive never seen snow melt so efficiently, i wish i had taken before and after pics like you

even the piles (similar to you and kev's snowbanks currently) were all but obliterated.....it was dumbfounding....and historic here.

it was the fog and rain in the end that killed it, the snow just vaporized.

the torch is what ruined that winter and why for me, it still ranks behind 92-93 as my fav winter.

funny how you loved '92-'93....that is my favorite winter too....just epic. #2 all time for snowiest winter but I rank it ahead of '95-'96 because it had 2 storms over 20" (1 over 30") and didn't have the horrific torch that '95-'96 had in Jan '96.

[Organizing Low]

funny how you loved '92-'93....that is my favorite winter too....just epic. #2 all time for snowiest winter but I rank it ahead of '95-'96 because it had 2 storms over 20" (1 over 30") and didn't have the horrific torch that '95-'96 had in Jan '96.

92-93 in terms of cold combined with snow was the most severe winter ive seen here. that winter started out real slow here....but that last 2.5 month stretch between mid jan and end of march was just epic in full epicness. i also reached my peak snowdepth after the Superstorm at 58 inches, which blows away any other total ive ever had and is an alltime record for ottawa, so it was a once in a long long time deal and illl probably never see that again.

it was just an awesome winter.

how was it for boston and new york that year? was there a big cutoff somewhere, because it is interesting that you and i both value that winter so highly, and really makes it even MORE of a sick winter when you think about it ....seems you were more lumped in with NNE that year perhaps, or was it a good winter for all of SNE as well?

[ORH_wxman]

92-93 in terms of cold combined with snow was the most severe winter ive seen here. that winter started out real slow here....but that last 2.5 month stretch between mid jan and end of march was just epic in full epicness. i also reached my peak snowdepth after the Superstorm at 58 inches, which blows away any other total ive ever had and is an alltime record for ottawa, so it was a once in a long long time deal and illl probably never see that again.

it was just an awesome winter.

how was it for boston and new york that year? was there a big cutoff somewhere, because it is interesting that you and i both value that winter so highly, and really makes it even MORE of a sick winter when you think about it ....seems you were more lumped in with NNE that year perhaps, or was it a good winter for all of SNE as well?

There was ahuge gradient just south of Boston and ORH that winter. For the big coastal cities...look at this seasonal totals:

BOS: 84"

PVD: 39"

NYC: 24"

We had 120" here that winter. E Canada was absolutely frigid that year and it leaked down into our area enough that we got on the friendly side of the gradient in a lot of storms. But just to the south it wasn't so friendly. Funny you mention this because literally just a hours ago earlier today, I was talking with Scott (coastalwx) on the phone and we talked for a good 20-30 minutes about this exact winter. He can verify this when he sees this. But it was incredible that winter to see Boston getting slammed nonstop while Providence....a 45 minute drive SSW... got the shaft quite a bit.

That winter had a huge +NAO...and it acted in the reverse fashion of a huge -NAO. A strong enough -NAO screws you and if its really storng, it even screws down to us like the end of last winter....but this was the reverse...the strong +NAO made you frigid because the vortex extended back to you or just E of you and it leaked enough cold air down to here even while further S and SW it was warmer.

Best winter of my life though....we had 32" in the December 11-12, 1992 storm...just when that was getting torched away in early January, the pattern broke and from mid January onward it was epic as you already said. We never got near the snow depth you had, but we had over 30" depth twice that season...once in December and then again after the Superstorm.

I don't even rank '95-'96 #2 on my list behind it even though it was #1 in total snowfall. That torch in Jan '96 just scarred me. I like '00-'01 better and probably '04-'05.

But '92-'93 will probably always be my #1....it will take an absolutely epic winter to beat it. If I get a 30" storm this March, then I'd consider it...but '92-'93 set the bar very high.

[nzucker]

it was the fog and rain in the end that killed it, the snow just vaporized.

the torch is what ruined that winter and why for me, it still ranks behind 92-93 as my fav winter.

I find the snow melts much faster on a moderately mild but foggy/humid night than during a very warm but dry day. During the New Year's torch, I lost very little of my snowpack with highs of 45F and 50F two days consecutively, but then the snow absolutely vaporized overnight when we were around 38/38 with fog. I went from 10" to 4" in a hurry during that torch, was lucky to come out of it with that much left. I'm amazed at how little damage the wooded areas took today...basically looks the same as when I walked there two nights ago, just slightly less in the exposed parts.

funny how you loved '92-'93....that is my favorite winter too....just epic. #2 all time for snowiest winter but I rank it ahead of '95-'96 because it had 2 storms over 20" (1 over 30") and didn't have the horrific torch that '95-'96 had in Jan '96.

I have pictures of me as a kid playing at our house in the Poconos during either 92-93 or 93-94...there was over 3' snowpack in NE PA and I was building massive snow forts all over the place with various tunnels and other craziness. I think we had an epic snowpack at the mountain cabin both winters, as I know that Poconos got absolutely ripped in March 1993 and then again in the dual storms of February 1994. That was the best snowpack I've ever seen.

[Organizing Low]

There was ahuge gradient just south of Boston and ORH that winter. For the big coastal cities...look at this seasonal totals:

BOS: 84"

PVD: 39"

NYC: 24"

We had 120" here that winter. E Canada was absolutely frigid that year and it leaked down into our area enough that we got on the friendly side of the gradient in a lot of storms. But just to the south it wasn't so friendly. Funny you mention this because literally just a hours ago earlier today, I was talking with Scott (coastalwx) on the phone and we talked for a good 20-30 minutes about this exact winter. He can verify this when he sees this. But it was incredible that winter to see Boston getting slammed nonstop while Providence....a 45 minute drive SSW... got the shaft quite a bit.

That winter had a huge +NAO...and it acted in the reverse fashion of a huge -NAO. A strong enough -NAO screws you and if its really storng, it even screws down to us like the end of last winter....but this was the reverse...the strong +NAO made you frigid because the vortex extended back to you or just E of you and it leaked enough cold air down to here even while further S and SW it was warmer.

Best winter of my life though....we had 32" in the December 11-12, 1992 storm...just when that was getting torched away in early January, the pattern broke and from mid January onward it was epic as you already said. We never got near the snow depth you had, but we had over 30" depth twice that season...once in December and then again after the Superstorm.

I don't even rank '95-'96 #2 on my list behind it even though it was #1 in total snowfall. That torch in Jan '96 just scarred me. I like '00-'01 better and probably '04-'05.

But '92-'93 will probably always be my #1....it will take an absolutely epic winter to beat it. If I get a 30" storm this March, then I'd consider it...but '92-'93 set the bar very high.

thats great info right there, thanks for that...... i figured the gradient had to be somewhere in SNE, but man PVD was not a nice place to be for a weenie that yr....i wonder how tolland did? it goes to show that both boston and all the way back to ottawa and montreal can cash in if the pattern is right. i know NYC can never cash in big, if we cash in here, its just too far S. we had 135 inches in ottawa, so not much more than you.

and incredible about the NAO.....i always wondered what could have caused such an epic winter. i didnt know that a +NAO could have those type of effects.

92-93 is the only winter ive ever lived here where people were crying uncle for real. the other severe one people talk about here is 70-71 which of course is before my time.

07-08 would have been like that possibly if it wastn for the torch, but really it wasnt cold enough i think to be considered 'severe'.

i had 4 feet less snow in 92-93 than i did in 07-08, so like you, it goes to show just how powerful and impressionalbe 92-93 was for me....just the way it went down, you know what i mean.

and its funny you mention the 95-96 torch because thats my exact feeling on 07-08. i will always be left with a 'what if'.....but it also reiterates the point that record snowfall winters probably do becomes that because of increased activity, and not necessarily constant cold.

but yeah, there were so many great thing about it, i could talk about 92-93 till the cows come home. one day you and i will have to reminisce over a drink lol

i hope to see a winter as great as that one again, someday.

[nzucker]

70-71 was a record snowfall winter with very little warmth. All three months of winter, and March, averaged below normal in the North Country. Burlington, VT had over 140" of snowfall...

[Organizing Low]

I find the snow melts much faster on a moderately mild but foggy/humid night than during a very warm but dry day. During the New Year's torch, I lost very little of my snowpack with highs of 45F and 50F two days consecutively, but then the snow absolutely vaporized overnight when we were around 38/38 with fog. I went from 10" to 4" in a hurry during that torch, was lucky to come out of it with that much left. I'm amazed at how little damage the wooded areas took today...basically looks the same as when I walked there two nights ago, just slightly less in the exposed parts.

I have pictures of me as a kid playing at our house in the Poconos during either 92-93 or 93-94...there was over 3' snowpack in NE PA and I was building massive snow forts all over the place with various tunnels and other craziness. I think we had an epic snowpack at the mountain cabin both winters, as I know that Poconos got absolutely ripped in March 1993 and then again in the dual storms of February 1994. That was the best snowpack I've ever seen.

yeah 93-94 was also a solid winter here.....i know Jerry (weathafella) always talks about that one.

[ORH_wxman]

thats great info right there, thanks for that...... i figured the gradient had to be somewhere in SNE, but man PVD was not a nice place to be for a weenie that yr....i wonder how tolland did? it goes to show that both boston and all the way back to ottawa and montreal can cash in if the pattern is right. i know NYC can never cash in big, if we cash in here, its just too far S. we had 135 inches in ottawa, so not much more than you.

and incredible about the NAO.....i always wondered what could have caused such an epic winter. i didnt know that a +NAO could have those type of effects.

92-93 is the only winter ive ever lived here where people were crying uncle for real. the other severe one people talk about here is 70-71 which of course is before my time.

07-08 would have been like that possibly if it wastn for the torch, but really it wasnt cold enough i think to be considered 'severe'.

i had 4 feet less snow in 92-93 than i did in 07-08, so like you, it goes to show just how powerful and impressionalbe 92-93 was for me....just the way it went down, you know what i mean.

and its funny you mention the 95-96 torch because thats my exact feeling on 07-08. i will always be left with a 'what if'.....but it also reiterates the point that record snowfall winters probably do becomes that because of increased activity, and not necessarily constant cold.

but yeah, there were so many great thing about it, i could talk about 92-93 till the cows come home. one day you and i will have to reminisce over a drink lol

i hope to see a winter as great as that one again, someday.

Yeah, its funny how perception can change with a badly timed torch or the longevity of deep snowpack. '92-'93 after early January had no torches and it was relentless with its active pattern...just one storm after another. Even the storms that didn't give us all snow were like 4-6" then sleet/ice and then it cooled off behind it...then we'd get an all snow storm...rinse and repeat. It was relentless. It just kept coming. Having two storms over 20" is big for my ranking...Dec '92 (greatest storm of my life) giving over 30" and then the March Superstorm giving just over 20". Then all the activity in between and a huge snow pack, its just hard to beat. It was a lot colder relative to average up there than here, but it was still an epic winter here. We probably experienced the snow/cold combo a little more the next winter in '93-'94...over 100" of snow and epic cold...but it wasn't nearly as good as '92-'93 because of lack of huge 20"+ storms and huge snow pack. We got over 20" snow pack that winter, but never really much more than 2 feet. We had a big torch in mid-late February that decimated a 2 foot snow pack down to like 5-6" before we rebuilt it a bit at the end of Feb '94 and early March...but '92-'93 didn't have that problem.

'95-'96 also had a brutal torch in Feb '96 that often gets overlooked because the Jan '96 torch was so much worse, but we had like 3-4 straight days over 50F in Feb '96 between about the 20-25th. That winter was tainted quite a bit by torches despite all the snow and overall cold anomalies.

After the New Years torch in Jan '93, it was literally game-on through late March.

[nzucker]

Did 92-93 and 93-94 both have a similar 5H pattern with a +NAO manifested by the PV over Hudson Bay?

Only 93-94 had a slightly better Pacific so the positive snowfall departures got further south?