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Upstate NY / North Country Thread Fall 2010

NYWx

By NYWx,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted

Same weather pattern as last January seems to be setting up with Toronto forecast to be colder than Sept Iles!? The latter city is expecting rain with highs in the lower 40s next week! :arrowhead: The further north and east you go the more above average your temperatures will be. At this rate, Virginia will be colder than Sept Iles next week.

I'm starting to wonder if the "climate change" we've been experiencing has more to do with extreme high latitude blocking than human emissions. I would say that the "odd" weather the globe has experienced over the past year has more to do with blocking than with emissions from factories or the Alberta tar sands. Heck, if this block keeps pressing westwards, it'll bring a new meaning to the "Block Quebecois".

It would be nice if Ottawa could get 8" of snow next week similar to the New Years period last week, but the GFS does not seem to be hinting at this.

i say the roll on the pattern change that Bastardi seems to be hinting at for around the solstice, as it could mean an end to the blocking and a shifting north of the storm track.

I think the question then becomes whether human emissions are causing extreme latitude blocking. Chicken and the egg thing going on here....

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

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Every model run is getting better for next week. I mean really, A 974mb low locked in right there for 3 days....thats perfect. The 0z run has much colder 850's for WNY too, which bodes very well for a long duration low grade LE event. I havent crunched any numbers for winds, but there is no doubt it will be a noticeably windy period for days.

:thumbsup:

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Logan11

Logan11

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I have been hanging more in the NE threads lately because my primary snow source here of course is synoptic storms and lots of talk over there about that situation - or lack thereof......

But given the 10 days progs, I guess the time has come to hope for the occasional 1 or 2 inch scrap off Lake Ontario to get rid of this ugly brown landscape. LES people ...any hope of a ESE down the Mohawk Valley trajectory for some LES snow bands over the next week?

Every model run is getting better for next week. I mean really, A 974mb low locked in right there for 3 days....thats perfect. The 0z run has much colder 850's for WNY too, which bodes very well for a long duration low grade LE event. I havent crunched any numbers for winds, but there is no doubt it will be a noticeably windy period for days.

:thumbsup:

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

Posted
Posted

I have been hanging more in the NE threads lately because my primary snow source here of course is synoptic storms and lots of talk over there about that situation - or lack thereof......

But given the 10 days progs, I guess the time has come to hope for the occasional 1 or 2 inch scrap off Lake Ontario to get rid of this ugly brown landscape. LES people ...any hope of a ESE down the Mohawk Valley trajectory for some LES snow bands over the next week?

I don't really see any such flow more NNW-NW so it looks like the best LES will be across the WESTERN Catskills as well as points wets and south

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Flying MXZ

Flying MXZ

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Posted

I have been hanging more in the NE threads lately because my primary snow source here of course is synoptic storms and lots of talk over there about that situation - or lack thereof......

But given the 10 days progs, I guess the time has come to hope for the occasional 1 or 2 inch scrap off Lake Ontario to get rid of this ugly brown landscape. LES people ...any hope of a ESE down the Mohawk Valley trajectory for some LES snow bands over the next week?

I've been reading there too and it is amazing the difference in attitudes there. They all act like there is no shot at snow (except blizz) while here it is pretty upbeat. I also can't believe they are talking about and hoping for flurries. I guess that is the difference here with the lakes not too far away, it seems to flurry most of the winter, as it is right now.

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

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Posted

Interesting post by Joe Bastardi this morning. Apparently the new Euro weeklies that he's seen show the cold holding through the new year and is leading him to question his forecast a bit and think that maybe he's too fast with his call for a flip to warmth. He brings up the winter of 1916-1917, which apparently, like this year, had a strong La Nina. Interestingly, this past summer in Ottawa averaged almost exactly the same as that of 1916, as did Sepetmber and October. November 1916 averaged about a degree and half celcius colder than November 2010. Also interesting to note is the fact that December 1916, while moderately cold, did not see any extreme cold up here. Instead, that winter continued to deepen and turn colder against the means as it progressed, with January being colder than December and February being the coldest of all. Oh, January 1917 saw a metre of snow fall in Ottawa.

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Andyace

Andyace

Posted
Posted

Interesting post by Joe Bastardi this morning. Apparently the new Euro weeklies that he's seen show the cold holding through the new year and is leading him to question his forecast a bit and think that maybe he's too fast with his call for a flip to warmth. He brings up the winter of 1916-1917, which apparently, like this year, had a strong La Nina. Interestingly, this past summer in Ottawa averaged almost exactly the same as that of 1916, as did Sepetmber and October. November 1916 averaged about a degree and half celcius colder than November 2010. Also interesting to note is the fact that December 1916, while moderately cold, did not see any extreme cold up here. Instead, that winter continued to deepen and turn colder against the means as it progressed, with January being colder than December and February being the coldest of all. Oh, January 1917 saw a metre of snow fall in Ottawa.

Lmao,so now he is saying winter doesnt end on Dec. 25th?

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Andyace

Andyace

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I did awake to a 0.1" dusting today - perhaps related to some distant LES.

JB is generally too fast in winters where he is conversely calling for a turn to colder. This time we have to hope he is similarly off in his timing, but in reverse.

His last video said after the dec 25th winter was over in the midatlantic and northeast

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

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Posted

Every model run is getting better for next week. I mean really, A 974mb low locked in right there for 3 days....thats perfect. The 0z run has much colder 850's for WNY too, which bodes very well for a long duration low grade LE event. I havent crunched any numbers for winds, but there is no doubt it will be a noticeably windy period for days.

:thumbsup:

i admit it is looking better, and Ottawa may even get some synoptic snow early next week. I'd take 2-3" to make it look a little festive out there! :snowman:

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

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Posted

i admit it is looking better, and Ottawa may even get some synoptic snow early next week. I'd take 2-3" to make it look a little festive out there! :snowman:

given the marginal temps thanks to the same ole same ole blocking, and the lightness of the precip, i doubt it will amount to anything much, just kinda the snow in the air type snow we have been getting.

but with retro flow being somewhat difficult to predict, maybe there will be a surprise heavier burst of snow at some point.

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

EC is matching up very well with Hovmoller data from middle to end of Nov targeting the 11th-12th as a period of winter storminess for us. GFS is similar to but s a bit slower than the EC. Nice to see agreement amongst the OP models and secondary data sources this far out!

Below is a "secondary source".... :)

12z GGEM is there as well, via extrapolation and last night's similar 240hr. run:

180hr. 12z GGEM:

f180.gif

240hr. 00z GGEM (last night):

f240.gif

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

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Posted

given the marginal temps thanks to the same ole same ole blocking, and the lightness of the precip, i doubt it will amount to anything much, just kinda the snow in the air type snow we have been getting.

but with retro flow being somewhat difficult to predict, maybe there will be a surprise heavier burst of snow at some point.

TWN is calling for 2" of snow with a high below freezing on Sunday, and they seem to have been fairly accurate so far this season.

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Avid6eek

Avid6eek

Posted
Posted

Next week I'll be on the road for work. Albany to Buffalo on Monday, Buffalo to Pittsburgh on Wednesday, and Pittsburg back to Albany on Thursday. Looks like I may be seeing some of the white stuff along the way...expecially in the area's hard hit south of Buffalo.

Here in eastern NY I'm excited about the upcoming cold. Personally I like a solid ground and frozen bodies of water before building a snowpack. Nothing worse than having it melt from above and below when the ground isn't frozen.

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Flying MXZ

Flying MXZ

Posted
Posted

There is Plattekill nearer to there right. Although I'm sure it isn't open yet. I remember the old Scotch Valley (aka Deer Run for awhile). Then if you really want t go back there was once skiing on Bearpen. We still hike up the remains of the old ski run.

Yea I know Scotch Valley quite well. Plattekill is easily the local favorite place, although Bobcat was when they were still open. We leave Hunter and Windam for the folks from down south.

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