earthlight Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Idk how accurate this is...but nam snowfall map at sv is 4-8 for all of us... Check out the 18z run..gave us nothing. Something's wrong with that algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 36 hours. NYC is all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 flooding from what? there is only around 3/4 of an inch of rain with temps in the mid 30s? It wont be from snow melt so I'm not sure where the flooding will come from 1 inch + of rain with temps reaching 40 at least for areas SE of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Why was my post deleted? Because I don't like ice events? I love snow but this isn't a snowstorm and we all know that. I think if people had the option to choose between rain and freezing rain, they would pick mid 30s and rain. The high pressure that rebuilds in SE Canada is concerning especially if the primary stays just to our south because we would hold onto NE winds and temperatures would struggle to hit freezing. The timing would also favor major ice issues because it would fall at night so I'm really hoping the models trend warmer because an ice storm is no fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think a combination of the two will definitely cause issues..there will certainly be a period of IP/ZR that is not in question..but this goes over to plain rain faster than most people think in the city...that I am almost sure of, as well. so you're going against climo wrt to ice storms? It is well known by many, including yourself because you've said it, that we usually get less snow and more ice in these situations with a tendency for low level cold to remain in place longer while mid level warming is more impressive than the guidance suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 not to mention flash freeze... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 U think that with temps 25-29 from midnight tomorrow thru 7am Wednesday morning and .25"-.40" of precip, ice won't be a major problem early Wednesday? If it were in middle of day, then no. But as depicted Wednesday morning early commute will be impossible. By noonish Wednesday ice threat is way over though as it's raining moderately. And it's probably still slightly below freezing at 7am...we probably are below freezing for another hour (or two) after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 it leaves alot of energy back...... Have been noticing this lingering energy for a while... would not be surprised if someone in the area gets some light snows on the order of 1-3/2-4 overnight Wed. after the main stuff departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 1 inch + of rain with temps reaching 40 at least for areas SE of NYC It's not 1" of rain. We are frozen thru 7am Wednesday. After that .75" is just touching NYC and temps are 33-35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 And it's probably still slightly below freezing at 7am...we probably are below freezing for another hour (or two) after that. Yes. New Brunswick is about -1C and rising as of 7AM Wednesday morning on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 1 inch + of rain with temps reaching 40 at least for areas SE of NYC well areas SE of NYC isn't what you said...you included NYC...even southern areas I'd be surprised if there was any flooding. Out on LI its a diff story but if temps kiss 40 or more than obv you have to worry about snowmelt, but massive enough for flooding, I doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 well areas SE of NYC isn't what you said...you included NYC...even southern areas I'd be surprised if there was any flooding. Out on LI its a diff story but if temps kiss 40 or more than obv you have to worry about snowmelt, but massive enough for flooding, I doubt. this is my point about the whole storm in general at this point. the Tues night wed component is huge because we won't see temps ramping up, even if we go to plain rain by mid morning. the situation is very serious for the area in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Also, nobody has mentioned this, but there is a good potential for a long period of freezing drizzle Tuesday night during our "break". Freezing drizzle can cause massive problems in its own right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 this is my point about the whole storm in general at this point. the Tues night wed component is huge because we won't see temps ramping up, even if we go to plain rain by mid morning. the situation is very serious for the area in my opinion Morning commute on Wednesday will be very bad. 4am-8am the worst. .25"-.50" of ice is nothing to sneeze at. When's the last time we had anywhere close to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 this is my point about the whole storm in general at this point. the Tues night wed component is huge because we won't see temps ramping up, even if we go to plain rain by mid morning. the situation is very serious for the area in my opinion listen...for now I'll hedge that I'm just an amateur and don't know what I'm talking about, and that people like earthlight (no offense just stating facts) suggests this is no more than a nuisance in the NYC metro area with an earlier changeover than what is expected. However I will not be surprised when this over-performs in terms of ice accretion and people are complaining of power outages and downed tree limbs causing damage. Every single model has a prolonged period of at least modest ZR/IP so maybe I'm not grasping how climo+guidance suggesting a prolonged period of ice does not equal significant ice accumulations.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Have been noticing this lingering energy for a while... would not be surprised if someone in the area gets some light snows on the order of 1-3/2-4 overnight Wed. after the main stuff departs. ya know....looking at it again at 500, it looks like the energy is actually the northern stream that never really phases with the southern stream...and instead it kinda just digs into the 4 corners. not sure what to make of it....i think this slides to the E and becomes our possible wknd coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Morning commute on Wednesday will be very bad. 4am-8am the worst. .25"-.50" of ice is nothing to sneeze at. When's the last time we had anywhere close to that? 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 listen...for now I'll hedge that I'm just an amateur and don't know what I'm talking about, and that people like earthlight (no offense just stating facts) suggests this is no more than a nuisance in the NYC metro area with an earlier changeover than what is expected. However I will not be surprised when this over-performs in terms of ice accretion and people are complaining of power outages and downed tree limbs causing damage. yeah, there's a reason why Mt.Holly has winter storm warnings for NYC's southwest burbs- Middlesex, Somerset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ice events are very rare around here, actually the most ice I've seen was a couple of weeks ago in the morning. I think we had only a tenth or 2 tenths of an ice but it was a huge pain, it looked like a skating rink out there and I had to chip all of that ice from my car. In most cases that deals with ice threats, we either have more sleet than freezing rain or the temperatures are around 31-33F and the rain was falling during the day and not freezing onto the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Everyone look at this map of the 2m temps for 12z Wednesday according to the 00z NAM. The 0c line looks to be just south of New Brunswick and right through NYC. And this is after 0.25'' to 0.5'' of QPF has fallen (presumably as mainly freezing rain) from 0z to 12z Wednesday. Anyone saying this doesn't show a very icy Wednesday morning commute for this area doesn't know what they are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ice events are very rare around here, actually the most ice I've seen was a couple of weeks ago in the morning. I think we had only a tenth or 2 tenths of an ice but it was a huge pain, it looked like a skating rink out there and I had to chip all of that ice from my car. In most cases that deals with ice threats, we either have more sleet than freezing rain or the temperatures are around 31-33F and the rain was falling during the day and not freezing onto the surface. and this time we have colder preceding temps as well as a high in a relatively ideal position... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I could see a lot of falls of people crossing the street wed AM..We all know how bad the curbs get and .5'' of ice wont make things very pretty.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 and this time we have colder preceding temps as well as a high in a relatively ideal position... not to mention a fresh deep snowpack region-wide, which analogs like 2/14/07 and the 1/14/1994 did not have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 As Jake said before, there is a lot of physical processes that go on with a melting snowflake. Yeah, there is a large warm layer, but while it's actually melting, its temperature does not change, since it is undergoing a phase-change. It's not like it's instantly just going to go to +5C like the warm layer's temperature actually is. It can only commence warming post-melting when it's 100% completely melted. Thus, the rain drops will probably be around 33 degrees, not 37 degrees, and given the amount of surface cold being forecast, there is certainly enough cold to supercool the droplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think a half inch of ice would be more than enough to cause some power outages, not to mention make for a disastrous morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 As Jake said before, there is a lot of physical processes that go on with a melting snowflake. Yeah, there is a large warm layer, but while it's actually melting, its temperature does not change, since it is undergoing a phase-change. It's not like it's instantly just going to go to +5C like the warm layer's temperature actually is. It can only commence warming post-melting when it's 100% completely melted. Thus, the rain drops will probably be around 33 degrees, not 37 degrees, and given the amount of surface cold being forecast, there is certainly enough cold to supercool the droplet. thats the central thesis to my confusion as to why earthlight thinks this is rain with temps below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 snow already making it into the region http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=40.74623871&lon=-74.03492737&label=Hoboken,%20NJ&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 this is a better setup for ice than the moderate ice event we had a couple weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Everyone look at this map of the 2m temps for 12z Wednesday according to the 00z NAM. The 0c line looks to be just south of New Brunswick and right through NYC. And this is after 0.25'' to 0.5'' of QPF has fallen (presumably as mainly freezing rain) from 0z to 12z Wednesday. Anyone saying this doesn't show a very icy Wednesday morning commute for this area doesn't know what they are talking about. And looking at the skew-T for our latitude/longitude, we're really only about +1C at the surface at 39 hours, and -1C at the surface at 36 hours. We probably still have another hour of freezing rain after that...we probably go over to plain rain at ~37 hours on the NAM, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think somebody mentioned also that relatively lighter rainfall with the surface below freezing tends to cause more icing than heavier rainfall with a below freezing surface. I mean it's not like the droplets just magically freeze when they hit the surface, unless it's raining with surface temps in the teens or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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