mattinpa Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 We are going to thread the needle with this storm., This can be a good storm for our area if it takes the perfect track or if the storm explodes off the coast. Happened once and can again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 DT says this can be snow to rain, with all snow in NYC.... via facebook. huh? is it snow to rain or all snow? LOL I have seen three different forecasts for this storm on TV-- one is just snow showers with the main part of the storm missing us to our east, another is all snow, and the third one is snow to rain. But even the mets who are saying its going to be all snow said it wont be a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 hr 96 on the 12z gfs...has rain from phl/south after starting with some light snow....ttn north is snow....and just oustide phl...nw burbs are snow....1008 low over norfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 hr 99-102 looks like rain for i-95/se...eastern PA and nw nj get a good hit of snow.....hr 105 rain changes back to snow...ccb effecting cnj-sne....phl gets some light-mod snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Pretty good hit for cnj-sne for the saturday system.....ccb gets into ttn-nyc-sne... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 We have a stronger low offshore on this run, which is a positive for us. A very weak high pressure also showed up - maybe it will trend stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Pretty good hit for cnj-sne for the saturday system.....ccb gets into ttn-nyc-sne... Thanks for the PBP man. If you had to give a percentage, what percentage would you say is snow in the 5 boros? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nice trend on GFS. Stronger system brings a CCB for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Thanks for the PBP man. If you had to give a percentage, what percentage would you say is snow in the 5 boros? We start off as snow..and it looks at 102 the 850's and surface get north of the city...but not by much...(perhaps algreek can see it better, sv maps are hard to see) but by 105 surface and 850's are south of the city and nice ccb is ripping...i would say about 80% is snow for the boros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Maybe a several inches, cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 so far through hr 105, the gfs snowfall map at sv is 4-8 for ne PA/northern nj/ and nyc...2-4 get down to ttn-holmdel....looks like 2 inches so far for phl....more as one goes west...nada for snj...still more snow to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 the GFS has been unbelievably consistent with this threat, consider it's the GFS. It's the coldest model, which may agree with its S&E bias, but it's hard to go against that consistency... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks to be 4-8 for ttn-north...phl 2-4.....snj rain......eastern PA 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Stronger low offshore and it seems like the storm gets deeper as it heads up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgir Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Quite a wintry run there north of I-78 in PA. Mostly ice/sleet from round 2 and then a pretty good snow hit for the weekend. 2.1" of snow with a little P and Z on top. Round 2 will be a real p i a. Saturday still looking ok at this point for a couple inches of snow in our neck of the woods. If its still on the models late Thursday, I'll be thrilled. Anyway, let's all enjoy this damp cold bone aching weather. At least the snow removal guys are having good times. Stay safe out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GGEM also blows up this low. It's slightly warmer than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It's snow to rain on the GGEM for the area. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It's snow to rain on the GGEM for the area. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Strange - wouldn't you think it would be colder as it leaves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Strange - wouldn't you think it would be colder as it leaves? The low basically is right on the coast, im actually surprised its that cold in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The low basically is right on the coast, im actually surprised its that cold in general Guess it's a good sign from the GGEM of all models. But wouldn't a departing low to the N&E make it cooler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm surprised nobody mentioned the heavy sleet and freezing rain for most of E PA on the GGEM. 2 ice storms in a week would be a disaster for the areas that get hit hardest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Guess it's a good sign from the GGEM of all models. But wouldn't a departing low to the N&E make it cooler? yes, but the low is close and you basically dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 hr 96 on the 12z euro...broad area of low pressure off the carolina coast......light snow from ttn north...phl prob a mix at this point....850's and surface just south of phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 hr 102 low just east of acy.....rain for phl-nyc....snow for cpa....lets see if this wraps up like the gfs in the next frame and gets the ccb in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 12z Euro has a moderate snow event from the Lehigh Valley N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 hr 108 we go back to snow...i guess between hr 102-108...its not as wrap up as the gfs, not as strong with the ccb....1000 mb low east of Li......not a bad trend today....alot better then what it was showing the last few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 hr 108 we go back to snow...i guess between hr 102-108...its not as wrap up as the gfs, not as strong with the ccb....1000 mb low east of Li......not a bad trend today....alot better then what it was showing the last few runs What are temps like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 hr 108 we go back to snow...i guess between hr 102-108...its not as wrap up as the gfs, not as strong with the ccb....1000 mb low east of Li......not a bad trend today....alot better then what it was showing the last few runs do we go back to cold after next week and any storms on the horizon after saturday? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Euro also has a day 7-8 cutter, similar to today's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Euro also has a day 7-8 cutter, similar to today's storm. SE ridge really flexing now. May have to put winter to rest for a while, until we get that -NAO back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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