Chris L Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 looks exactly like the 1/26-27 storm, intense southern stream ULL with no blocking Alpha, we didn't exactly have blocking for that one either.... But we will need timing.... all timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This one is a swing and miss on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That southerly flow around the Clipper kills us this run. The storm also takes quite a bit longer to develop than previous runs, the 06z GFS (which was a nice event by the way) had snow on us by 18z Saturday. This run still has the Low in the Gulf at 18z Sat. That extra time allows warmer air to build back in since there's no blocking to keep our cold air locked in. Fortunately, this run of the GFS disagrees with previous GFS runs and the ECM, so I wouldn't worry too much about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 looks exactly like the 1/26-27 storm, intense southern stream ULL with no blocking meh...shoots ene once it gets near VA...would've been a mixed bag of precip had it come up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Whag the hell happens on the 12z gfs that the cold air just dissappears? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Given the state of the NAO and AO, I would expect a shift to the coast in future runs. I doubt this storm goes ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This one is a swing and miss on the GFS. and you really feel this exact solution will play out almost a week from now????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It seems like these snowstorm threats are just fading away in the mid-range and never come back. I hope late Feb completes this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It seems like these snowstorm threats are just fading away in the mid-range and never come back. I hope late Feb completes this winter. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 at day 5 the s/w fails to phase with the northern stream diving in (misses the phase).. I wouldnt get worked up over this as it still comes up the coast anyway strictly driven by the southern stream and no northern stream. We need to wait for the LC to get out of the way to start taking models more seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What? I know, I probably shouldn't complain because I live in Cape May and it is obviously too early to make such claims. The December 26-27th system was the only significant snowfall down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 and you really feel this exact solution will play out almost a week from now????? hes talking about the run dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It seems like these snowstorm threats are just fading away in the mid-range and never come back. I hope late Feb completes this winter. I know, I probably shouldn't complain because I live in Cape May and it is obviously too early to make such claims. The December 26-27th system was the only significant snowfall down here. Especially on January 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Their is an even more interesting setup in the 9-10 day range......no need to get discouraged because the storm misses 6-8 days out. DC gets smoked by the second system with high pressure in great position. Only problem is the high is in such great posistion that the system stays supressed and passes well to our south and east. Still would be a very nice hit for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Especially on January 30th. Teleconnections aren't looking that great going forward, the seemingly invincible -NAO will probably break down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Teleconnections aren't looking that great going forward, the seemingly invincible -NAO will probably break down. its been broken down for weeks dude, and philly/nyc have still been getting snow. Many experts are calling for a -nao rejuvination in february. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Teleconnections aren't looking that great going forward, the seemingly invincible -NAO will probably break down. what are you talking about, NAO has been positive for awhile and looks like it will go very positive in the future and stay that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Here's the GFS D9-10 threat: http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_252l.gif The lack of phase could have caused the warmer temps for the 5th. It's just one run a ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Still a long way off and GFS is bouncing around. Looks like strong ULL will eject - just need northern stream to cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Honestly, their is a dip in the NAO around the same time that the 9-10 day threat comes to fruition. Hopefully in future runs we can sqeeze out a slightly negitive NAO to help things along. The extended range though looks horrid wth the latest EC weeklies really pumping up the typical NINA SE ridge and saying goodbye to winter in the east. Of course, their are alot of unbelievers at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We can still get a storm, even with unfavorable signals. Everything needs to go right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Honestly, their is a dip in the NAO around the same time that the 9-10 day threat comes to fruition. Hopefully in future runs we can sqeeze out a slightly negitive NAO to help things along. The extended range though looks horrid wth the latest EC weeklies really pumping up the typical NINA SE ridge and saying goodbye to winter in the east. Of course, their are alot of unbelievers at the moment. THERE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Did I say that? and you really feel this exact solution will play out almost a week from now????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Did I say that? no.....my bad.....lots of people are making pre-judgements about this storm and htat was in my head but you were just commenting on a particular run as someone pointed out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ok then. I am definitely not making any judgments until I see the ECMWF. Then I might. no.....my bad.....lots of people are making pre-judgements about this storm and htat was in my head but you were just commenting on a particular run as someone pointed out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z CMC has a decent storm around hr. 174-180. 850s are a little warm, but this IS the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z CMC has a decent storm around hr. 174-180. 850s are a little warm, but this IS the CMC. The 850s make perfect sense given the track of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ok then. I am definitely not making any judgments until I see the ECMWF. Then I might. Too early to make any judgements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Honestly, their is a dip in the NAO around the same time that the 9-10 day threat comes to fruition. Hopefully in future runs we can sqeeze out a slightly negitive NAO to help things along. The extended range though looks horrid wth the latest EC weeklies really pumping up the typical NINA SE ridge and saying goodbye to winter in the east. Of course, their are alot of unbelievers at the moment. I'm more than ok with that, we've had over 50" of snow, more than double the average, more than last winter. We've also seen extended cold for December and January.We've had snow cover since Dec 26, I can't recall the last time we've had such a long lasting snow cover, pretty amazing. Even the upcoming storm will not be able to take down the snow cover because temps will likely not be that high (30s) even if it rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It cuts it toward the lakes and then redevelops off the coast. Maybe near the DelMarva. 12z CMC has a decent storm around hr. 174-180. 850s are a little warm, but this IS the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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