Edge Weather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 At 204 hrs it has a sub 984mb low well off the Delmarva with light snow back throughout our area. Moderate snow hugging the S Jersey Coast and Eastern tip of LI. Something to watch on future runs for sure. Really close to a massive hit up and down the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Suffice to say I like this year's 2/5-6 threat much more than last year's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Three snow threats on the euro thru 200 hrs in a so called "horrible pattern".. ok il take it, the cold air is there for some fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 At 204 hrs it has a sub 984mb low well off the Delmarva with light snow back throughout our area. Moderate snow hugging the S Jersey Coast and Easter tip of LI. very nice pbp.....euro just misses us at hr 210...might be fantasy land...but seems like models want to form some type of costal next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 for the saturday storm....its .75+ for ttn-north and .50+ for eastern pa/phl/snj/delmarva....hr 84 is prob snow for phl and close to nyc...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Thank you very much. I am still not anywhere near as good as Tombo, and never will be though. very nice pbp.....euro just misses us at hr 210...might be fantasy land...but seems like models want to form some type of costal next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I am starting to get the feeling that something HUGE is going to happen the middle of next week, the models just have not figured out the details yet. Yeah. Usually in this time frame you will see models with multiple vortices and shortwaves and as we approach the timeframe, they consolidate into something more organzed. Euro also has the NAO going slightly negative in the time frame that the storm threats are showing. Great to see 2 threats on all models. This Saturday and something middle to end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I think you forgot to back out the stuff from today over NJ, NY and CT. for the saturday storm....its .75+ for ttn-north and .50+ for eastern pa/phl/snj/delmarva....hr 84 is prob snow for phl and close to nyc...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I think you forgot to back out the stuff from today. i see that...its .10 at 6 hrs....so a little less then those totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Three snow threats on the euro thru 200 hrs in a so called "horrible pattern".. ok il take it, the cold air is there for some fun As it relates to sensible weather it really is no different than what we've seen all winter long for the most part. Patterns may be different/more favorable/less favorable but an outcome of cold and snow just seems to want to persist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yes, it is really hard to tell. That's why I guestimated .50-.60. i see that...its .10 at 6 hrs....so a little less then those totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mecca Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'd rather have the storm OTS than either plain rain or ice. That being said, I still think there are at least minor impacts in the PHL and NYC areas from this storm. It can be OTS 25-30 miles off the coast with the Canadian HP giving us the cold air at all levels. We should be fine then. That will probably leave LI and the Jersey shore with a mix and NYC and points west with the snow, but it is not really looking like much of an Arctic front. Temps in the 30's is not a Arctic front. The trend seems to be this way through next Tuesday when we may see another costal. I just do not see enough cold air and no blocking. Im thinking a zonal pattern with occasional Canadian air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Our storm system on Friday-Saturday has the poential to become a 50/50. That along with a + PNA and a NAO going - should lead to some blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 weak -nao signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 why? Please explain? is this a wishcast or is there some semblance of met backing? I agree with him although I think the MAJOR threat is in the 10-14 day range. Teleconections are becoming favorable, the cold air is available, and the storm pattern remains active. As has been the case for most of the year, we don't need everything to fall perfectly into place to get a SECS, but the signals are growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mecca Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I see no real cold air next week. Something huge? Snow melt? Flooding? Temps are looking in the mid 30's all week. Lows in the mid to upper 20"s. Melt freeze, melt freeze...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 flooding with temperatures in the mid 30's?? I see no real cold air next week. Something huge? Snow melt? Flooding? Temps are looking in the mid 30's all week. Lows in the mid to upper 20"s. Melt freeze, melt freeze...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I see no real cold air next week. Something huge? Snow melt? Flooding? Temps are looking in the mid 30's all week. Lows in the mid to upper 20"s. Melt freeze, melt freeze...... One....give it time........two, that's why I said I feel the real threat is 10-14 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 flooding with temperatures in the mid 30's?? Not to mention almost all model guidance is showing a shot of arctic air for late next week. I'm thinking Mecca is only commenting on the first part of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Is it conceivable to say that perhaps the people calling for a significant warmup, or February becoming huge for midwest cold and snow...could very well end up being wrong again??? I mean i know it's easy to say we are going to get milder (it's been so called so far this winter, pretty much anything else is "milder" ), but I see posts saying the NAO is going negative again soon, AO is going negative and the west coast ridge will pop up strong again. ALthough i'm nothing more than an amateur, that sounds like a cold and snowy period to me. If i'm missing something, please I'd appreciate the valuable input from all the intelligent mets and hobbyists on this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Again, please keep the banter in the banter thread. This is a discussion for the Feb. 5th-6th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 flooding with temperatures in the mid 30's?? Nothing is going to flood any time soon. That snowpack is now jam packed with 4-7"+ water in some spots. I sampeled my yard yesterday before the ice. The top 10-12" was not so bad, probably solid ice now thanks to the ice storm I just had. The bottom 12"+ was a solid block of ice. Now I probably have 24"+ of solid ice with a nice layer of sleet to top it all off. it's going to take temps well up into the 40's for a few days to really have an impact. Once the snow begins to melt, it will begin to runoff into the reservoir's and rivers initially leading to small rises. If the warm up continues and the snow continues to melt, now we are really setting the stage for a big problem. Of course, every bomb needs a fuse and without a major rain event to go along with the snowmelt the effects would be minimal. However, the typical storm pattern in March-April is through the Mississippi river valley and mid-level lows have a tendency to close off and pump moisture northward as was the case last March. If we get a 2-3" widespread rainfall either during the height of the snowmelt or shortly after flood zones are in serious trouble. As we saw in 2010, you don't need to have a large snowpack still on the ground when the rain hits, by that time the TNT is already stacked waiting for ignition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Suffice to say I like this year's 2/5-6 threat much more than last year's. LOL. Rarest storm of all time; 28.5 inches in Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 15z Srefs do not get the 850 0c line NW of NYC for the end of the week storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Our storm system on Friday-Saturday has the poential to become a 50/50. That along with a + PNA and a NAO going - should lead to some blocking. its possible..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 18z NAM hugs the Jersey coast and thus brings warmth on the coast and inland to NJ. PA does pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 18z NAM hugs the Jersey coast and thus brings warmth on the coast and inland to NJ. PA does pretty good. 850's crash at hr 78 and alot of places go back over to moderate snow such as Philly/NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 18z NAM looks better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 850's crash at hr 78 and alot of places go back over to moderate snow such as Philly/NNJ Nah, surface temps are still too warm at 78: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F02%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US%2C+Canada%2C+and+northern+Mexico&fcast=02%2F02%2F2011+18UTC+078HR I still think this has the potential to be a moderate snowfall just to the northwest of I-95. It's very close, about 30 miles further east and a stronger low would do the trick. Also, seeing as though these models (NAM, GFS, Euro) miserably failed with the temp. profiles for this last storm, there's nothing saying that this isn't being modeled cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Nah, surface temps are still too warm at 78: http://mag.ncep.noaa...011+18UTC+078HR I still think this has the potential to be a moderate snowfall just to the northwest of I-95. It's very close, about 30 miles further east and a stronger low would do the trick. Also, seeing as though these models (NAM, GFS, Euro) miserably failed with the temp. profiles for this last storm, there's nothing saying that this isn't being modeled cold enough. maybe a heavy wet snow? sv snow maps have 2-4 for nyc, more to the NW..we need that low more east and H5 doesnt look to appetizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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