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Found 29 results

  1. Bob's Burgers

    June 21st 2019

    Seeing more of a consistent signal from the Euro about this Friday, June 21st, of at least an appreciable severe weather event for parts of Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, and Nebraska. GEFS signals have been hinting at this for a little while, with a consistent ~ +4 sigma conus SCP for about a week now.
  2. Twitter has safe tornado videos at #kywx and probably other #/@ tags. Atmosphere has tipped its hand on the synoptic fronts. How about boundaries farther south? They are usually second to go; so, this is very much still an ongoing day for Dixie (as of Noon Central Time). Noon Central Time: Differential heating and dewpoint boundary is noted from North Alabama into West Tenn. Another boundary is lifting from central Mississippi. They may merge later farther north. Either way looks like locally enhanced helicity in the usual suspect areas of North Alabama into northeast Mississippi and southern Middle Tenn. Upper air wind fields are strong including proper turning with height. 700 mb is a little warm; but, I expect enough surface convergence to overcome. Synoptic trough is coming out of Arkansas, and will bump into the above boundary(ies). North Bama clouds are decreasing both sides of lifting boundary, an ominous sign. Oh that boundary looks like an extension of the Georgia cool wedge-front, where clearing is also seen both sides. Warm mid-levels and neutral heights from yesterday will have less impact if foretasted surface heating materializes. Plus convergence along boundaries should be enough, esp intersecting ones.
  3. Since we are taking a brief hiatus from winter for the next period of time...and since there is some small instability and good shear available tomorrow (see SPC discussion for day 2) - I figured we'd get a super early start on our 2018 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx thread. Let's see how badly we can fail this year with storms splitting around DC, storms missing the area entirely, and our typical gusty showers from a pencil thin line. As bad as winter weenies are around here - I think our severe weather folks are even more desperate Ready? Go.
  4. It's looking like a cold spring, technically it already is since meteorological spring starts March 1st. Will we continue the trend of below average severe weather seasons? These threads in warm months don't see the activity that the winter thread does, so I figured this would handle summer as well. I guess because summer is normally benign in our part of the world outside the occasional heatwave, pop up storm or rare tropical remnant.
  5. Jebman

    Everything Tropical

    Post your tropical experiences here. I will post lots of hurricane videos. I am watching em day and night, LOL. I've discovered many hurricane chasing vids but by far, Josh Morgerman is THE UNDISPUTED BEST, EVER! http://www.icyclone.com/chases/odile-2014.html This is a must-see.
  6. There is potential for a significant, multi-region severe weather threat for the very early part of next week on all major models. The 12z GFS, NAM, and EURO all show a shortwave ejecting out into the central and eastern U.S, and seem to be converging on a severe weather outbreak for multiple subforums. A sub 995mb low is forecast to traverse from KS into Southern MO/AR, and very strong moisture return is forecast to push up into parts of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Dixie, and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys ahead of this surface low, and both low level and deep layer shear is more than adequate for a potential multi region severe weather outbreak early next week..
  7. Before I can tell this story, I need to supply a little bit of technical background or you won't understand it. During my teenage years and before, the Twin Cities Metro area had a telephone "dating service" similar to Internet Chat Lines of today. We called it the Jam Line, and I have since discovered that some cities in other parts of the country had them too, but called them by a different term: "Beep Line." Anyway, the cause of the Jam Line was the telephone company's building of the new Electronic Switching (ESS) that we use today. In order for ESS to work correctly, it had to be built in parallel to the old mechanical switching used in the 1950's - 1970's. This created a Loop in the telephone lines allowing people to talk to each other when getting a Busy Signal. Us teens would dial the local radio station's request line, which was always busy, and get the Jam Line; where one would shout out their telephone number between the beeps of the busy signal and the guys/girls would call each other back. If you want to know more about the Jam Line check out this web link: http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2012/12/24/arts/jam-line Now that you've got the background here's the story: It was about 8:30 pm on April 26, 1984. A teenage girl was standing in a phone booth in the parking lot of the SuperAmerica gas station on 37th Ave. NE, in Minneapolis, MN talking on the Jam Line, when suddenly the telephone line went dead, then was followed by some clicking sounds, went dead again, and just as suddenly the Jam Line was back on. Moments later the power went out all around her, then an F-3 tornado hit the Apache Plaza Shopping Mall about a 1/2 mile away. The resulting damage would trigger the eventual bankruptcy and demolition of the mid-sized indoor mall built in 1961. For days afterwards the local evening News casts would focus on how there were no warning sirens sounded before this tornado struck the mall. There was a lot of public outcry for a better system to activate the civil-defense warning network. It turned out that the civil-defense sirens were triggered by telephone line, and for some reason the system had failed in the 781/788/789 telephone prefix areas. The sirens worked fine in other areas of the city. The Weather Service was baffled. The Jam Line that existed on the 781/788/789 prefix was the last ever in the Twin Cities, MN area. It was shut down in 1984, about a month after the tornado, but not before I talked to the teenage girl who was in the phone booth that stormy night. She was one of the last girls I ever talked to off of the Jam Line, and she talked about this strange story of how the tornado had momentarily knocked out the Jam Line, and how she was so close she could see a "green-glow" in the darkness traveling along the ground towards Apache Mall. To her, the NWS, and the TV News Reporters, there was no explanation for the failures that night. To me and a select few others, we knew exactly what had happened. One of my friend's mom's was a NorthWestern Bell Telephone Operator. Both my friend and I were heavily into the Jam Line. We had been told by his mom that the telephone company didn't like the Jam Line because with so many people calling into a certain prefix, it would over-load the circuits, crash the relay switching station, and block in-coming calls. The phone company would have to try and reroute traffic, but they could only do so much. That teenage girl told me the Jam Line was very busy that night and there were about 20 people screaming on the Line. She had been a bit frustrated trying to dial in because it was hard to get through. It didn't take an Einstein to figure out what had happened, but the phone company kept it quiet. The Jam Line had overloaded the circuits and blocked the trigger signal for the warning sirens in the area. Many residents and shoppers lives were put at risk that night because they had no warning. No one could have ever predicted that the Jam Line would have caused such a mess. These events are a true story; but the conclusions are purely speculation on my part. Here's a web link to some damage pictures of Apache Plaza Shopping Mall: http://apacheplaza.com/tornado.html
  8. I took this picture of a low-hanging cloud on August 27th, 2016 in Taylor, Michigan around 3-4 p.m. EDT. It's not a good picture that will give me a definitive answer, but you can see a low-hanging cloud across the horizon. It doesn't appear to be detached from the storm base. I didn't have a good view or advantage point to begin with, so I didn't notice any spinning or rotation in it, but it did move across the horizon relatively quick. The SPC only had us in a Marginal risk for severe weather that day. I took this picture of the thunderstorm itself in Lincoln Park, Michigan around 1-2 p.m. EDT.
  9. The storm prediction has this area marked as a 15% chance of severe weather on Friday: This severe weather will most likely be sparked by the winter storm taking shape. However, helicity and tornado parameter models are showing that if severe weather does occur, it won't be as bad as it could be. This is at it's peak for the area that could possibly face bad weather. What level of severity do you guys think all of these storms will happen at?
  10. Quincy

    Purple Haze

    From the album: Summer 2016 Thunderstorms

    A tornado-producing thunderstorm takes on a purple tint as the sun begins to set near Warwick, North Dakota. August 3rd, 2016.
  11. Quincy

    Early Stage

    From the album: Summer 2016 Thunderstorms

    A thunderstorm just southwest of Warwick, North Dakota produced a tornado on August 3rd, 2016. This photograph captures the early stages of the tornado.
  12. NWNC2015

    Bonnie Discussion/Obs

    It appears all but certain some interesting weather will be occurring around our neck of the woods for the holiday travel/events. Below is a look at a hurricane model. Some tornadoes will also be possible if the below materializes. The HWRF takes it to 50knots near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.
  13. Hey guys, I'm working on a website / software ordeal where severe weather enthusiasts and meteorologists can enter their: 1.) Tornado target city 2.) # of tornadoes they think will occur for the day 3.) Probability of 1 or more EF3+ tornadoes being reported. You can score points based off your performance and level up throughout the contest. I then will take all of this submitted data by ALL users and combine it together on a map and in statistical averages, so it is in a way, crowd casting. This could be really cool. Registration closes May 2nd-ish, but I might allow a few late registree-s depending on how many people we get. There will be some prizes as well http://wikiwx.com/score-points-based-off-your-tornado-target-forecast-now/ Here's an image of what plotted tornado target points would look like on a map. Let me know what you guys think of this idea / any improvements etc. That could be made. It's in experimental version this year but I may develop this into a software of some kind pending theres enough interest.
  14. While it is the 4km NAM, that model along with the less, but still notable 12km NAM are both showing a decent chance of severe weather and potentially a tornado threat in Alabama and surrounding areas on Thursday, March 24th. It seems right now, if this setup wants to be more significant, the surface low should want to slow down a bit so surface winds would be more backed in the area. Also, CAPE values generally range from around 1000 J/kg on the 12km NAM/GFS to 1500-2000 on the 4km NAM. Regardless of this, the 4km NAM shows discrete supercells in central Alabama Thursday afternoon.
  15. As 2016 rings in, thought I'd make a severe weather discussion forum for the New Year. Severe weather doesn't seem likely through Mid January for now.
  16. I personally think November 2015 will be warmer than average, CFS has strongly been trending warmer than average since August. The CanSIPS model has also been trending warmer than average. Precipitation forecasts from CanSIPs and CFS also analyze above average. Now the Jamstec model is a bit different. It predicts a warmer than average November for areas east of the MS river excluding IL,WI, and MN. But it then predicts a cooler than average November for areas west of the MS river, east of the Rockies. That is the September run and the October run should come in in a couple of days. I do think our "Second Tornado Season", could be good. The last El Nino analogs I found have had Late Fall-Early Winter tornado outbreaks. This next list of outbreaks all happened in El Nino conditions in November. November 22-24, 2004, 2002 Veteran's Day Outbreak, 1987 Arklatex tornado outbreak, and so on.
  17. rolltide_130

    2015 Tornado Radar Images

    With the first major outbreak of the year well underway, it's time for this thread. Rochelle, IL 1 - April 9 Rochelle, IL 2 - April 9 Longview, TX - April 9
  18. Pretty early to be in a Day 5 outlooked area for severe. Discuss upcoming threats, potential season impacting factors and more in this thread.
  19. Quincy

    U.S. Tornado Days Per Year

    The United States has a greater frequency of tornadoes than most other counties. For many factors, the vast majority of tornadoes occur east of the Rocky Mountains across the continental U.S. Although the central and southern Plains region is widely considered to be "Tornado Alley," there are other areas that see just as many tornadoes, if not even more. The two graphics below are adaptations of NOAA/NWS SPC graphics found in their Tornado Environmental Browser. A broad area from the east slopes of the Rockies east to the west slopes of the Appalachians typically see the most days with tornadoes per year. Two local maximums can be identified in northeastern Colorado and central Florida. While these areas may see numerous tornadoes in any given year, they are generally low on the EF-scale. The central Appalachians feature a local minimum of tornadoes, but as one travels east, the frequency of tornadoes increases. While terrain by itself will generally not have much of an effect on a tornado, especially a significant (EF/F-2 or stronger) one, there are reasons why terrain affects tornado frequency. In the Plains, lee cyclogenesis combined with a surge of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and drier air from the Rockies tends to create a favorable setup for severe thunderstorms and tornado development. Across the East Coast, there is less real estate to work with when considering the proximity to the Atlantic Ocean. Also, wind out of the south to southeast in the lower levels will often mitigate the risk of severe thunderstorms, especially in the spring and early summer months from the mid-Atlantic region into the Northeast. The placement of a "Bermuda" high and/or a "southeast ridge" of high pressure will tend to limit the formation of strong non-tropical low pressure systems along the East Coast during the warmer months, as the jet stream is often displaced further northwest. The frequency of days with significant tornadoes is in some ways similar to, but also has differences in comparison with the frequency of days with all tornadoes. While portions of Colorado and Florida may see the most tornadoes overall, there are two distinct areas that feature a much greater frequency of significant tornadoes. The southern Plains into Dixie Alley (lower to mid-Mississippi Valley) will on average experience the most significant tornado outbreaks. Here, there are three factors that are probably most responsible for this. First, their proximity to warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico fill favor higher dew-points and greater instability. Second, the tornado season is a bit elongated here. While April into May have featured the most significant tornadoes in Dixie Alley, the late fall into winter months have also included several major tornado outbreaks. Finally, there may be at least some influence from tropical systems. While tropical storms and hurricanes often do produce tornadoes, it should be noted that most of these tornadoes are generally not significant. Eastern Nebraska into the Midwest also averages an elevated number of days per year with significant tornadoes. Here, while the tornado season typically peaks in June, at least some fall tornado events have spawned significant tornadoes this far north. In 2013, October 3rd-4th recorded six significant tornadoes from eastern Nebraska into Iowa, with the major tornado outbreak of November 17th featuring 32 significant tornadoes in the Midwest. Other noteworthy observations: Missouri is an interesting case. The western portion of the state is often considered to be in tornado alley and some maps will place southeastern Missouri in Dixie Alley. The state has seen plenty of significant and even violent tornadoes, with the Joplin tornado of 2011 being one of the more recent examples. However, a small section of central Missouri features a local minimum in terms of both tornadoes and significant tornadoes. One possible explanation can be their location being in a "dryslot" of sorts for tornadoes. For storm systems developing just east of the Rockies, the eastward extent of associated severe weather will often fall short of central Missouri. Likewise, systems developing in the lower Mississippi Valley often form a bit too far east to target central Missouri with the most tornadoes. West Virginia has less tornadoes than most states east of the Rockies. One factor that immediately comes to mind would be the population density and terrain, which may limit some tornado reports. However, their location along the Appalachians certainly plays a role in the lower frequency of tornadoes. The higher elevations will typically have less instability. Likewise, moisture pooling will typically favor higher dew-points west and east of the Appalachians, leaving West Virginia in another tornado dryslot. According to the NWS, West Virginia has no recorded EF/F-4 or 5 tornadoes. With that said, a long-track F-5 tornado in southeastern Ohio narrowly missed passing into West Virginia before lifting. Also, an F-4 tornado that dropped southeast of Pennslvania into Maryland also lifted shortly before it would have passed into West Virginia.
  20. Time to get this thread going since we actually have images worth posting. I'll start with my own. April 27th: Mayflower/Vilonia, AR April 28th: Tupelo, MS April 28th: Louisville, MS
  21. Discuss Moore, OK tornado here...
  22. Quincy

    Northeast Tornado Stats: 2013

    Here's a recap of the 2013 tornado season across the Northeast. Connecticut had four reports of tornadoes during 2013, which is roughly twice the average amount of about two. Keep in mind that 2012 had no tornadoes in the state, so one could argue that this was nature's way of balancing itself out. Elsewhere, New Jersey was the only other state in the Northeast with above average tornado reports. (They average two per year, but had three in 2013) Maine is not pictured here, but Maine had at least two tornado reports. Since they average two per year, that's right at average. Massachusetts also saw an average year with one tornado report. Vermont and New Hampshire typically average about one tornado per year, but both states saw no tornadoes this year. New York was well below average with just four tornadoes. The average there is 10 per year. Pennsylvania reported nine tornadoes, also well below their average of 16 per year. Averages based off of 1991-2010 reports, per NCDC. April 19th: An EF-1 tornado touched down near Bainbridge, N.Y. and was on the ground for 3.2 miles. (link) May 9th: A weak EF-0 tornado touched down near Stoughton, Mass., but the length of damage was less than 0.5 miles. This was a cold air funnel case and not a "classic" tornado. (link) May 28th: There were four tornado reports across northwestern Pennsylvania. Three of the tornadoes were rated EF-1s and one was an EF-0. The longest tracking tornado was an EF-1 that touched down near Edinboro and had a damage path of 18 miles long. May 29th: Two tornadoes were reported in eastern New York State. One was a significant, long-track tornado (EF-2). It was on the ground for 17 miles and the damage path was up to 1 mile wide. Another tornado, a weaker EF-1, was reported just to the southwest of that storm. (link) June 2nd: Two brief and weak EF-0 tornadoes were reported in Maine. June 27th: Two EF-1 tornadoes were reported in central Pennsylvania. July 1st: A somewhat unusual morning tornado (EF-1) was reported in extreme northeastern New Jersey. The same storm that was responsible for that tornado resulted in three tornado reports across Connecticut from late morning into early afternoon. The first report was an EF-0 that touched down in Greenwich. The most notable tornado was the second one, which was an EF-1 in the Windsor and Windsor Locks areas. A weak, brief EF-0 tornado was the third report in Enfield. (link) July 10th: A brief EF-1 tornado was reported near Moravia, Penn. during the afternoon. Less than an hour later, an intermittent EF-1 tornado was reported in Connecticut between Andover and Mansfield. The damage path of that tornado was 11.2 miles long. July 27th: An EF-1 tornado was reported in north-central Pennsylvania near Borie. That same storm dropped another EF-1 tornado in adjacent New York State about an hour later. The second of those two tornadoes was on the ground for 14 miles. August 7th: A minor EF-0 tornado was reported in southwestern Pennsylvania near Ralphton. August 13th: A weak EF-0 tornado was reported near Manahawkin, N.J. October 7th: An EF-1 tornado was reported near Paramus, N.J. The tornadoes pictured above across Delaware, Maryland and Ohio were not included in the above time-line. As might be expected, the strongest and longest-tracking tornadoes across the Northeast this year were across New York and northwestern Pennsylvania. Those areas are climatologically favored for significant tornadoes, at least when compared to areas further east. With that said, there have certainly been cases of strong tornadoes in southern New England. The most recent case was the deadly EF-3 tornado that tracked across south-central Massachusetts on June 1st of 2011. The above image is a composite that is not perfectly to scale. United States tornado seasons: Through then winter, the Gulf States are favored for tornado development. There was a minor event this past Sunday, on January 12th, that featured a few EF-0 tornado reports in extreme southeastern Virginia. Into spring, the focus shifts toward the Midwest and late spring into early summer is when the Northeast most commonly sees tornadoes.
  23. The National Weather Service (NWS) reported that an EF-0 tornado touched down in eastern Massachusetts Thursday afternoon, shortly after 4:30 p.m. An upper level low lifted northward through New England on Thursday. An unseasonably cold air mass was in place, resulting in cold temperatures aloft. It was the combination of low Lifted Condensation Levels (LCL's) and moderate wind shear aloft that helped create an environment that was marginally supportive of tornado development. It is possible that a land-sea interaction with winds off of the nearby ocean may have played a role in spawning this tornado. The NWS reported that it was a case of a cold air funnel. The tornado touched down in Stoughton, M.A. in Norfolk County and stayed on the ground for 0.25 miles. The tornado was a strong EF-0 with maximum sustained winds of 85 MPH. Damage was minimal, but a local car dealership reported seeing the tornado and had some vehicles blown around by the winds. Looking back at historical tornadoes in the Northeastern United States, the helicity values and amounts of instability in place on Thursday were relatively low compared to prior tornadic events. However, it was the low LCL heights and moderate wind shear that did elevate the tornado potential somewhat. On a scale of 0-5, 0 being unfavorable and 5 being highly favorable for tornadoes (based on local climatology), the environment yielded a value of 1.9. A note that a 2.5 value would be equal to the mean of past tornadoes. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 158 PM EDT FRI MAY 10 2013 ..TORNADO CONFIRMED IN STOUGHTON IN NORFOLK COUNTY MA LOCATION... STOUGHTON IN NORFOLK COUNTY MA DATE...MAY 9 2013 ESTIMATED TIME...431 PM EDT MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...85 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...50 YARDS PATH LENGTH...0.25 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...42.10N / 71.10W ENDING LAT/LON...42.10N / 71.10W * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0 * THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. ..SUMMARY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MA HAS CONFIRMED A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IN STOUGHTON MA ON MAY 9 2013. THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT A CAR DEALERSHIP ON ROUTE 138 WHERE IT WAS CAPTURED BY A SECURITY CAMERA AND RECORDED ON CELL PHONE CAMERAS BY SEVERAL OF THE DEALERSHIP EMPLOYEES. THREE RV TRAILERS...WEIGHING ABOUT 5000 POUNDS EACH...WERE PUSHED BACK ABOUT 6 FEET AGAINST A CHAIN LINK FENCE. ONE TRAILER WAS LIFTED ABOUT 15 FEET INTO A LIGHT POLE BUT LANDED ON ITS WHEELS WITH MINIMAL DAMAGE. AN ALUMINUM DOOR ABOUT 20 FEET HIGH AND 15 FEET WIDE WAS BLOWN OUT OF THE SERVICE GARAGE. EYEWITNESSES REPORTED CEILING TILES BEING LIFTED INSIDE THE DEALERSHIP AS THE TORNADO PASSED OVERHEAD. THE TORNADO ENTERED A WOODED AREA JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEALERSHIP. ABOUT 0.25 MILES AWAY...TWO LARGE PINE TREES WERE DOWNED ON ERICA DRIVE AND DEAN ROAD BEFORE IT DISSIPATED. BASED UPON A SURVEY OF THE DAMAGE...THE TORNADO IS CLASSIFIED AS EF0 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 85 MPH. THE PATH LENGTH WAS 0.25 MILES AND THE MAXIMUM WIDTH WAS ABOUT 50 YARDS. Here's a look at radar imagery about a half hour before the time of the tornado: The Supercell Composite Parameter was relatively low, although some slightly higher values did target the area near the tornado touchdown: The only severe weather report in the Northeast on Thursday was that tornado in Massachusetts!
  24. Not much has changed. It is starting to look as if the warm sector will continue East in active form. Could see a multi day severe weather outbreak from the Plains to the Ohio Valley/dixie alley. People in KS, OK, MO, and AR really need to be paying attention to this. Original blog post on this: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/blog/8/entry-95-early-week-plains-severe-threat/
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