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Looks to be a significant severe weather threat early next week. An area of low pressure is expected to develop and move off the Rockies … as usual with upper level energy approaching/crossing the Rockies. Ahead of this system, there will be an extended period of northward return flow off the Gulf of Mexico … setting the stage for a moist and unstable boundary layer as our system moves in around Monday. A dry line will develop across Western parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. As the dryline moves East, forcing (dryline and upper trough) looks to become sufficient for the development of thunderstorms within moderate to large instability and long/open hodographs. If things hold, would likely be a moderate or high risk day from SPC … with violent/strong long track tornadoes possible across parts of Oklahoma and Kansas.
Some type of severe weather threat is appearing more likely around the Saturday time fame from KS down into northern TX as a low develops on the flat side of the Rockies and works to setup/organize a dry line and triple point region. As the system pushes east, there is the potential to have a respectable cold front kicking into a moderately to highly sheared 60F+ Td warm sector along the MS River/Dixie Alley. Obviously too early to start boarding the train, but there is def potential for this system to produce a multi-day severe weather event ... possibly an outbreak ... from the Rockies east towards the MS River. Crappy moisture return is the biggest thing that could easily bust the event IMO.
Eventual tornado threat will depend on how unified the current line of storms becomes. If it can manage to maintain some semi-discrete updrafts within the line, then all current data points towards a significant nighttime outbreak across AL/northern LA/western MS. The combination of boundary parallel upper SR winds and low level SR winds on the order of 20-40 knts has me personally a little worried about a too unified squall line ATTM for a significant tornado threat. Some guidance manages to keep the southern end a little less unified enough that it overlaps with favorable hodograph environments ... so around the LA/AR border area may end up being ground zero for this event.
Severe weather outbreak looking more and more possible across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and deep south tomorrow and tomorrow night. This evening the culprit low is located across western Kansas with a warm front stretching along the Kansas border and into northern Missouri. The dryline is located from west of KICT down through western Oklahoma and Texas … roughly along a line from Altus, OK to Sweetwater, Texas and then southwest from there. The cold front is lagging behind in far western Kansas and eastern New Mexico. A fairly large moist warm sector has developed thanks to an extended period of southerly winds off the Gulf. Dew points in the 50s extend almost up to the Missouri/Iowa line ahead of dryline/cold front and will generate instability on the order of around 750j/kg despite clouds and lack of strong radiational heating of the boundary layer. As forcing increase aloft and steeper lapse rates move in, atmosphere will likely pop along/ahead of the dryline as it punches into eastern Texas. Models hinting at two potential dryline bulges north and south of Austin, Texas. This will have to monitored for possible initiation areas as the morning/afternoon progresses. Low level storm relative winds on the order of 20-40 knts and upper/mid level storm relative winds parallel to dry line/initiation axis will promote uniform gust front lifting and upscale growth into a squall line/QLCS structures with damaging winds being the primary threat. Convection will move East with the evening and overnight hours. As it does, shear will increase across Arkansas, Louisiana, Western Tennessee, and Mississippi and hodographs are expected to become open and elongated. Thus, the tornado threat will likely increase as we approach dark and persist into the overnight … especially if more QLCS type structures can be maintained though the time period. Couple this with low LCLs under 500 meters and there could be a strong tornado somewhere tomorrow night … again if semi-discrete QLCS structures persist. Folks across southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi definitely need to monitor this situation closely.