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Found 134 results

  1. Time for a thread! Looks like possible heavy snow inside our Region. Some areas could get ice under the snow. Dynamic system with strong push of low level cold air is forecast.. First the ice consideration is due to rapid low level CAA into West Tenn. and West Ky. Mid levels still warm at onset, part of the TROWAL, so it could be ice. Hopefully not but... More interesting is the TROWAL forecast from the Mid-South to Kentucky. Could go as far north as Indiana. Could slide right across our region. Wouldn't that be great? Euro seems too far north; yes, it's still my favorite model. In this seasonably cold winter GFS needs more respect. NAM follows it more east/south. So, I'm confident enough to start a thread for our Region. TROWALs are great in the South, because they let us kind of cheat and get snow without cold air solidly in place. This time, confidence is added by robust low level CAA too. Upstairs WAA goes into a core that is cold enough for snow, convenient. Dynamic cooling plays a role. Snowfall rates can approach/match those in other robust WAA conveyor belts (in contrast to meh comma heads). Big challenge is that a TROWAL is basically a mesoscale feature. It will be tough to pin down the big winners early. Rest of us can hope for that low level CAA to change over other parts of the rain shield, but it will be difficult. Mid-levels (700 mb) will not be ideal for snow production outside the TROWAL. However thickness crashes farther upstairs and that low level CAA... Did we get slammed about this time in Jan. 2011, a similar analog year?
  2. My next post is about the potential snows from Saturday evening through Thursday morning. Models are in general agreement that the potentials for Ocean Effect Snow from Sunday through Tuesday and then storm produced snows from Wednesday through Thursday due to a coastal storm is on the table. However, this post will solely focus on the Ocean Effect Snow potentials. First is the event Sunday through Monday. Mesoscale WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW both support a single band of ocean effect snowfall impacting the region of Cape Cod from Hyannis to Chatham and Provincetown on Northerly winds from 900mb to the surface, which means a single convergence band is more likely than multiple bands of snow which are less intense. These two models keep the band over this region from about 12z Sunday to 00z Monday or later, that is at least 12 hours or more of heavy snowfall over this area of the outer cape, this could produce more than 6" of snow, we will have to see the next few runs until the event starts and then diagnose the real short range models and what they produce. For now the potential exists of a few inches to as much as 6" or more over the Outer Cape Cod area. Stay tuned!
  3. Latest NAM run 00z shows a strong potential for ocean effect snow event from the Cape Cod Canal eastward to Provincetown on northerly winds, also unidirectional wind flow from 900mb to the surface indicates a single band event is probable along with a strong instability burst from 850mb to surface ocean temperature differential (Delta Ts) of 18-20C which is sufficient enough to produce heavy snows over the Cape and Islands. Also the flow is stronger than 10mph which should be sufficient enough for consistent band developing as we transition into a clipper low for the next few days. Big storm potential if the clipper low slows down its movement like the latest 12z guidance suggests at H5 with the low developing and closing off the H5 flow over the Northeast US. This will prolong the snow chances from Sunday morning to Wednesday afternoon for overall snow chances. Stay tuned!
  4. Models today are converging on a storm impacting the Northeast. Details are still to be ironed out but we look to have a highly anomalous modeled storm coming out of the Gulf that pass somewhere off the coast of New England. The modeled SLP is pretty low for a winter storm (sub 960mb) so while the main storm center may pass well offshore, there should be a pretty expansive western edge to the precipitation field. One other feature that models seem to be picking up upon is a strong low level convergence between the primary low and ULL over the GL. This is likely what is allowing for the further offshore track to still throwback moisture so far removed from the center of circulation.
  5. I figure we could use a separate thread to discuss this, since it doesn’t belong in the 1/3 thread and doesn’t belong in the banter thread. Some areas of central AL/GA and maybe S SC could get in on some light wintry precip tonight. It shouldn’t be a big deal, but these areas don’t get wintry precip everyday, either, so it’s something to watch.
  6. Models are useless at this range with all of the little disturbances in the flow, with the flow off the East Coast more SW to NE clouds are developing over DE and Wash DC area heading NNEward right now, if one of these disturbances veer the flow more sw to NE we could get clipped by ocean storms developing in the flow, I think one these systems will turn the winds over the ocean and over Cape Cod to the North sometime late Wednesday night into early Friday morning before the real storm synoptic snows begin Friday afternoon. NWS speaks lightly of this potential as well and the HPC keeps SNE in the snow from Day 5 to day 7. Could this mid week becomes something special? I think so. NAM depiction in this topic is showing more energy in the southern stream phasing with the northern stream that digs out of Southern Canada then the 18z GFS at the same time frame. New runs coming in now will shed light on this system just 48 hours out
  7. Advertised cold weather pattern should commence around December 6 and work in here well by Dec 7-8. I would like to limit precipitation charts to within 5 days. The exception is NWFS for the Mountains and Plateau, which is more skillful because it does not require an exact storm track. Discussion of favorable pattern (odds) is OK and even encouraged past Day 5, just no charts please. The good news is SER intrusions have departed recent model runs. Oh there is always a trade-off in the South. Northwest flow in the Plains gets as close as the Mississippi Valley at times, which opens the door for mild interludes within the cold pattern. Even with some variability the cold 6-15 day period carries high confidence. I put it near 85% in the 6-10 day; better than 50% in the 11-15 day. Still a slight risk that Day 10 mild interlude is the end, but I think cold reloads for the 11-15 day. Near textbook upper level pattern really lacks surface source region support though. Alaska and most of Canada cold is not strong. Manitoba and Ontario will get cold but it barely gets colder points north. Quebec looks strong but it's not our trajectory. Sustained cross polar flow from Siberia is required for impressive cold this time. A few days would not be enough since temps are AN in Alaska. Northern US snowpack deficit is a gaping hole in the equation for record or even just strong cold. So I think the 6-15 day will be cold enough to put one in the Holiday mood, but not particularly impressive. First front (6-10 day) may under-achieve as usual coming into a warm regime. Second front (11-15 day) should verify so long as it actually gets in here (>50% chance). If the upper level pattern holds through weeks 3-4, we might be able to talk about stronger cold anomalies. Right now looks like some lows in the 20s first half of Dec. If looking for teens or colder, more time in the cold pattern is required. A minority of ensemble members show a decent pattern for winter precipitation in the 11-15 day. Others are cold but dry. A smaller minority is too warm. I am looking for an active southern branch through the Deep South, not NW flow and zero SER attempts.
  8. Hearing reports of snowfall in Va. So let's get this puppy rolling. Post of obs and general storm discussion welcome. Good Luck one and all. p.s/ I hope you all didn't mind me naming this after myself. I always wanted to be famous.
  9. Time to fire up our 1st winter storm thread of the 2017/18 season. Could be the 1st accumulating snows for many. 12z Euro/EPS and 18z GFS/GEFS are advertising a modest event at this point.
  10. Anyone else signed up to play? I'm "Hugh Midity", coming off a strong 3rd place finish last year with ambitions of winning it all this year. The season gets underway tomorrow and with the pattern shift beginning later next week, things will get exciting early this year. https://www.FantasyBlizzard.com
  11. The forecast for snow and cold looks dim the next 10 days, however beyond that time period, looks to the first real chance at a snowy and cold regime over New England and at least as far south as the 38N latitude line. Anyone south of that latitude needs to wait until further into January time frame, but for those of us north of that latitude, the pattern change is being seen by most of the guidance after day 7-9 time frame, it looks like after December 4th an arctic front swings through the Northeastern USA states and brings a return of true arctic air and snow could be a possibility. Stay tuned! Right now it looks like a 60% chance at seeing at least 2 snowstorms, while a 40% chance exists that we see suppression depression.
  12. SO the models are showing frigid air entering the northern Plains sometime in the next ten days and that cold air filters into the eastern US by day 13-16, which is the 27th and beyond of October. We could be seeing a change to much colder air eventually as winter gets closer. Most of our storms this winter will be from the Oh Valley to the Mid Atlantic coastal storm tracks, signifying that miller Bs and not Miller As will be the normalcy this winter.
  13. Since meteorological winter is just over three months away, it's probably about time to start a thread for winter predictions. It looks like we will be in a weak la nina. I've heard the PDO is returning closer to normal. I'm originally from the SE, do the AO and NAO have much effect on the climate of the lower Midwest?
  14. It's currently coming quite a t-storm in my neck of the woods. Got up to 70 today. Looking at a 50 degree drop over the next few days.
  15. Last year's winter discussion thread was started July 28, so it's past time for this winter's thread to start. Here's what Accuweather said from a month ago. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-la-nina-forecast-fall-winter-2016-2017/58306249 Here are the NWS CPC forecast maps. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=5 Currently there is a 55-60% chance of la nina this winter. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf I've heard the PDO might return to a more neutral or cool phase and don't know much about the potential for Atlantic blocking this winter. Any ideas?
  16. This is a storm observation thread for March 9 into March 10.
  17. Let's start a new Pittsburgh thread for Winter 2016-2017. If anyone posted recently about the early winter why don't we put them in here going forward.
  18. All the others have their threads, so we're late to the game. Will this be a Nina winter as advertised, and if so, what intensity? If we can achieve weak Nina, it can mean good times ahead for the Valley region. Some of our most epic winters have came during that pattern, including the legendary 1984-85 winter that crushed the entire Mid-South/Tennessee Valley with heavy snows and record shattering cold. As always, many factors go into making a winter though, as we saw in 2011-2012 when the weak Nina mattered not at all and the winter was hardly a winter at all. Looking at some of the analog years, even including the bad winters, almost all areas West of the Apps are below normal in the temps department during weak Nina years. Strong Ninas flip the script however and we are often very warm during intense Nina years. I will take a further look at some of the analogs and at real data across the Valley during these years later on.
  19. Just trying to update some things. I say we try some seasonal observation threads if nobody objects. It will create a way to file things instead of sifting through a big thread. I have 41 degrees here in Kingsport which began with a morning of heavy fog enhanced by the local paper plant. It was clear today with some 10-15 mph wind gusts around noon. Felt a lot like Fall. I feel like this drought has robbed us of a normal Fall. The North Fork of the Holston had revealed rocks during these dry times that I cannot remember ever seeing. This morning all of those rocks were gone, covered by the waters from this week's welcome rains. When I did the leaves today, it was the first time I had not been covered in dust for months. I kept thinking about all of those folks displaced by the fire in Gatlinburg and about the families who lost loved ones. I also thought about Dolly Parton and how she stepped up to the plate when this region needed her. I thought about how my yard had some green in it for the first time in a long time. This drought has been more than a nuisance. It created the worst fire season I can remember or that my dad can remember. I hope we are about to put that fire season in the rear view mirror and that we can keep making a dent in the drought.
  20. Models have come into pretty good agreement on a follow up wave impacting the region later this week. Details still to be ironed out but at a Day 3 lead the signal is strong. We have global indices favorable. As you see in the images there is a nice PNA spike and the AO is negative around the time of the storm. I would bot be surprised to see this come a bit closer to the coast with the PNA spiking like it is. Also enclosed are the EPS and GEFS from 00z and 06z. Nice solid >0.5" for most of SNE on the mean.
  21. Nice 2-4" refresher on Saturday with the clipper.
  22. 46 F at 10:00 PM at RDU. No snow yet.