TellicoWx

Upstream radar looking fairly healthy for you NW facing guys.

Not surprised the OPs are flopping around so much..with such a large spread in all the teleconnections in LR modeling, hopefully we can start narrowing the spread soon. Right now I would just go with climo and enso as a base until it's sorted out some lol.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the NW flow areas over perform tonight...column is saturated thru 700 and with the ULL passing overhead, the UVV looks good. Decent vertical lift to go along with the orographic enhancement.

You didn't happen to hijack the teleconnects on the LR EPS today did you lol? AO mean has been slowly stepping down the last 3 runs for Dec heading into Jan (now in the 0 to +0.5 range for monthly average). If the trend continues and we can get into the 0 to -0.5 range, there is 10 timeframes that fall into that area. Once you start eliminating the ones that don't closely resemble QBO, Nino 3.4...etc the list narrows to 3. Here's an overview on one of the 3...Nino 3.4 (.8), AO (-0.24), QBO (1.69), PNA (-.5), NAO (-1..outside the range, but models keep hinting at one), EPO (negative regime DJF)..and featured a SSW split.....Dec 1977. Thought it was funny 1977 was brought up, then when the teleconnections came in and was looking at different similar analogs, 1977 pops up (first time so far). I usually start with the AO mean (if don't have a cold source, rest dont amount to much), then comb thru every other indice and trend to narrow the list. Still on the fence for this winter, but the analog years have been getting better last few runs (was spitting out only torch years 2011, 2006, 1951 examples). Last couple runs have come up with some better ones like 1977...1986 was an interesting ones last run. Mainly cause it is remembered for the record cold, but up until Dec 20, 1986 TYS was actually AN temp wise...then the bottom completely fell out.

The common analog on SARS the last several runs is 4/18/69. That system produced an F4 in Greenville, AL killing 2. A total of 13 tornadoes formed, mostly in the F0-F2 range. A 218 mi path was also recorded in southern GA and rated F2. Storm caused 50 injuries, besides the 2 deaths in the F4.

Yeah, I got the counties crossed. 00z backed off. With the main low trending further north, the threat is lessening some.

By no means am I saying this is how it will play out, but it is a little unnerving the date of the analogs on the 18z NAM. April 1998 was the F5 in Davidson Co.

Flash Flood Watch for Whitley Co due to a possible dam about to fail: Including the cities of Corbin and Williamsburg 351 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for a portion of south central Kentucky, including the following area, Whitley. * Through Tuesday afternoon * Recent heavy rains have led to the strong potential of a dam failure on a dam on located along Corinth road in the Little Spruce Creek drainage about 2 miles southwest of Woodbine. * If the dam were to completely fail, flash flooding is expected for a couple of miles downstream of the dam.

Almost time to breakout the purples again unfortunately...12z GEFS

Will bust a little higher than most modeling (way higher than MRX/local forecasts). Most areas between Huntsville and southern Mid TN picked up around 1.5"

Yeah, GEFS has been putting a bullseye across parts of the upper/mid south for a couple days now...EURO has too, but with a little lesser amounts.

Most of the bright returns over west TN is brightbanding. 3k was a little to slow and Euro a little too far south, but so far amounts in west TN are close to what GFS had. Big question is does the convection develop over central/southern AL robbing the moisture transport north.

Picked up 1.14" so far here and still pouring

Big jump N on the 18z NAM...hopefully on overcorrection

Definitely need to keep an eye on the weekend system across SE TN...Euro/NAM/CMC 12z suite showing 3"-5" across NW GA. GFS has similar range further south over Atlanta.

12z Euro

Pic from Knox Mayor of a sinkhole just opened this morning in Powell

Reports of a landslide on Northshore Dr in Knoxville now

Don't believe snow is happening south of 40. Models have overplayed the reach of cold all winter, don't think this is any different. Region hopefully doesn't end up of the battle zone with stalled fronts. Much more of a NW shift on modeling and even the Cumberland region will be in the axis with these next waves.

EURO keeps shifting the axis of heaviest precip more N...something to keep an eye on over next 72 hrs.

No slides on anywhere here, unless it's in the CNF itself, off the roadways. Really has surprised me so far.

Overall, it was the 64th highest recording. SE TN mountains were spared the worst part.

Broke the daily flow record here on the Tellico, prev record was 1962.

That's my biggest concern here...heaviest rate look aimed more south of 40. River here didn't get to recede much and is right at bank full...need the stuff over N Al to weaken.

Columbus, MS just took a direct hit