
ILoveWinter
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Everything posted by ILoveWinter
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Truthfully I fell asleep so I missed the 1-6AM period but I took a walk at around 630 last night and it was insane!
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
ILoveWinter replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I think we'll get there and if it verifies, I wouldn't call this storm a bust- 1,011 replies
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Yea I agree, here in the UWS it only sleeted for an hour, so I think we would have done quite well if we maintained the heavy rates that we had earlier in the evening
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
ILoveWinter replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Actually coming down at a decent clip now in the UWS, maybe we can squeeze another .5-1" until this all ends- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
ILoveWinter replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
14.7" from 1AM-345AM, insane (5.35"/hr rate)- 1,011 replies
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I’d guess CPK will end up over 8 with the final measurement so it would be within guidance albeit on the lower end of the range.
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
ILoveWinter replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Yea it's ripping in the UWS and has been at least moderate for several hours now with no pingers. Maybe the intensity has helped to keep us all snow.- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
ILoveWinter replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I'm in the UWS and haven't noticed any pingers all night- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
ILoveWinter replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Crazy heavy snow in the UWS, just took my 7 year old daughter out for a jeb and she loved it (gotta get them hooked early!)- 1,011 replies
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Been flurrying now for 15 mins near Lincoln Center so should be up your way in a bit Edit: all of a sudden transitioned to a steadier light snow
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
ILoveWinter replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Flurries in the UWS- 1,011 replies
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Somewhat torn on how much of an impact the mid level warming has on the immediate NYC metro. Experience over the past several years tells me to assume it will be more than expected (a la NAM for this storm) so I will do just that if only to temper expectations. Will be happy with 7-9 here in Manhattan.
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Still more than 48 hours away, I'd expect some waffling
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I agree - though at least for this one, the GFS is producing decent totals for those in the immediate NYC metro. This is different from the storm or two in the past where the GFS was correct but also showed NYC getting shafted...
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Yea agree that NYC is in a sweet spot as it will cash in on either the higher or lower suppressed tracks
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Yes very true. Also, I could be confusing the RGEM with another model.
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Not sure if this is still the case but doesn’t /didn’t the RGEM have a warm /amped bias?
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Some models have heavier totals north of NYC, some south. Even with that I think we have had pretty good consensus for the past few days (remarkable honestly) and averaging all this out, NYC and immediate Metro look to be in a pretty good spot right now.
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If I've learned anything living in NYC during the past few winters, it's that above freezing / marginal set ups almost always underperform!
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remnants of zeta and potential first flakes for some areas
ILoveWinter replied to forkyfork's topic in New York City Metro
I think Albany has a slightly higher average than Boston and it is at the same latitude though I'd still prefer Boston's climate as they tend to get walloped while Albany gets more of the smaller to moderate events -
remnants of zeta and potential first flakes for some areas
ILoveWinter replied to forkyfork's topic in New York City Metro
Mixing in the UWS -
Beneficial 1-3" rain, iso 4.5" 2PM Sunday 11th-2PM Tuesday Oct 13
ILoveWinter replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Yea this would be a clear meltdown mode scenario (but not me of course ) -
Beneficial 1-3" rain, iso 4.5" 2PM Sunday 11th-2PM Tuesday Oct 13
ILoveWinter replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Seemed it was heading in this direction when I saw some breaks of sun a few hours ago. -
SVR potential late Wed-Thu August 26-27 NYC metro
ILoveWinter replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Looked worse on radar than on the ground honestly