ILoveWinter
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Everything posted by ILoveWinter
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I'm pretty close to the Park and it's likely we've gotten an additional 0.5 since the 7AM observation. I doubt it gets recorded at the 1PM observation.
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Yea we've had a steady light snow practically all morning, wasn't expecting it to last this long!
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It didn’t look like that with nearly all model runs even yesterday!
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If they are on top of measuring at CPK, I could see an additional few tenths as it’s been snowing steadily for the past 45 mins or so.
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Yea some steady light snow in the UWS, maybe we squeeze out an extra tenth or two
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It’s an interesting discussion - bust or not - the Park clearly lost a few inches in those first few hours due to poor dynamics and most models didn’t indicate that. There was a point early on where it was literally snowing all around us and we weren’t even flurrying!
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I agree that for NYC the issue was dynamics. Yes there was a bit of sleet that mixed in here and there but any time the rates were actually strong it was all snow. We ended up with 4.3” so technically it was on the low end of the 4-8 forecasts but a 35 mile SW shift would have led to 8 or so.
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We broke the 4’’ streak!
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So that escapes the radar? Genuinely curious!
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Interesting that it’s been snowing steadily in Manhattan for a while yet the radar isn’t showing that at all
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Yea quite heavy in the UWS right now
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Yep we just can’t catch a break. It’s either a BL temps issue/not sticking or a fast moving warm nose bringing down accumulations.
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Oh well a bust it looks like for the city. Nothing new here as we’ve busted low on nearly every storm for the past several years.
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True but even the least snowy model run gave NYC 3 or so inches so anything less than that is truly an epic bust.
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Steady snow in the UWS, a bit of sleet mixed in at times
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Yea though not predicted this early, prob not even a half an inch so far in the city
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Snowing hard in the UWS, accumulating quickly even on main roads
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Yea pretty ridiculous that its been snowing hard in westchester for more than an hour and we’ve had nothing
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They are typically a bit conservative
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They increased it for most if not all of the immediate metro areas
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Reasonable, I'd say 4-8 as due to decent upside potential. My exact estimate for CPK is 5.
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Queue the “the airmass is cold” posts, I’ll start: damn it’s cold outside even in Manhattan! 20/6
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4-8” in the immediate metro is a good call at this stage as it sets a reasonable floor if mixing comes into play.
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It's tough living in Manhattan when it comes to accumulating snow but one thing that can overcome that with BL temps is rates. Hoping something like this verifies.
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Yea I was concerned on the way into the City last night as my car temp showed 42. Likely a few degrees too warm but was a red flag that we would lose some precip to rain/melting snow.
