ILoveWinter
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Everything posted by ILoveWinter
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Hearing from NE sub that the EPS mean shifted west and it’s a few very far east members that are skewing it. Good news.
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Op runs this far out will always be more volatile. Ensemble means are the way.
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Patterns tend to be sticky, it’ll snow where it’s been snowing
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Won't venture to guess what we will end up with but I wouldn't call it light in the UWS right now
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Is it a similar confluence set up from earlier in Jan that’s preventing the northward movement?
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It’s been absolutely ripping near CPK for almost an hour now, streets covered
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Yes tho the NAM showed basically nil for CPK, this is at least 3 which is within Uptons range.
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Celebrating “victory” and the event is starting later this evening? You called for 0.7 at Central Park right? I don’t even think the NAM has it that low.
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We’ve seen both models miss badly so close to gametime, hopefully the HRRR is victorious
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I’m terrible at remembering specific events but I do recall a number of times where Upton was more aggressive than the model averages.
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Explain why it misses south and explain why it will be cutter city - at least when snowman wants to rain on everyone's parade he adds his scientific reasoning.
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Weird that they'd go for a Watch in the immediate metro this early if they are only forecasting 2-4
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? It was not BS, my window faces a small park and the ground was certainly covered enough to indicate a half inch.
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In Manhattan, every factor helps. We’ve been burned so many times with snow that just doesn’t stick with all the crazy UHI.
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Also, for the immediate metro it would be helpful (for accumulations) if the heaviest stuff comes before sunrise
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Yea I was hoping we’d get something as it was quite cold during the day which allowed for immediate accumulation - not always a sure thing with UHI
