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ILoveWinter

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Everything posted by ILoveWinter

  1. ILoveWinter
    Some of the heaviest snow in several years here in the UWS, can barely see the building across the street!
  2. ILoveWinter
    I think part of the fun is nowcasting vs. what was modeled and that includes tracking the sleet line! Still a great storm regardless ad it’s not often we get such cold, dry high ratio snows.
  3. ILoveWinter
    Yea agree, its as if it's not seeing the sleet at all
  4. ILoveWinter
    It almost always moves fast once it gets to Philly. I’m guessing it’ll slow down for a bit before racing up again.
  5. ILoveWinter
    Not really. Its only budged a bit in the past hour.
  6. ILoveWinter
    Such a delight to get heavy snow with such low temps, savor every moment of this!
  7. ILoveWinter
    Yea was just looking at a live webcam in DC and definitely saw flakes flying
  8. ILoveWinter
    Heavy snow and 12 near CPK, quite the rare treat
  9. ILoveWinter
    Can’t remember the last time it was 12 with moderate snow falling, definitely a rare treat!
  10. ILoveWinter
    I mean Philly has pretty much the same amount of snow as NYC and White Plains? GFS sucks
  11. ILoveWinter
    Yea what is with that snow hole over nyc?! Unreal that it hasn’t moved in pretty much of all the UKIE runs. Anyone have an explanation for what is causing that?
  12. ILoveWinter
    I mean yea it's possible it shifts SE but just because it's cold doesn't mean we can't get sleet and your location will likely see this per nearly every model. The big question is timing and how hard the front end thump is.
  13. ILoveWinter
    Most people don't follow the models as closely as us weenies and probably don't know that CPK tends to under measure snow! Seems like a nice arbitrage opportunity here lol.
  14. ILoveWinter
    Exactly. Even an hour delay in a changeover could mean 2” extra.
  15. ILoveWinter
    Primary could end up being a bit weaker which may prevent the changeover for an hour or two. This could add a few or even several inches to the totals.
  16. ILoveWinter
    Queue the "it's still snowing in Nashville and it was supposed to changeover to sleet already so that's a good sign for us" posts lol
  17. ILoveWinter
    SWFEs aren't always great for the immediate metro as we typically do change over to sleet/zr at some point. However there have been several of them where it didn't matter due to the strong front end thump. Considering this is a stronger than normal SWFE, it's certainly possible we get insane rates early on.
  18. ILoveWinter
    Is the primary simply stronger with the NAM?
  19. ILoveWinter
    Seems like we are narrowing in on around 8-10 inches for CPK. I'd be happy with that, especially since it will have staying power for all of next week which is highly unusual
  20. ILoveWinter
    I’ve seen enough: 8-12 for Central Park
  21. ILoveWinter
    Agree as there’s a ton of moisture incoming and it’s possible we get a big enough thump where the changeover won’t matter as much. Anyway, regardless of any sleet it seems like a floor is around 6-8 at this time for the city and I’d honestly be ok with that considering the awful winters we’ve had here.
  22. ILoveWinter
    Very perplexing with My Holly still being quite aggressive showing 16 inches for coastal Monmouth (Long Branch area).
  23. ILoveWinter
    The NAM is not infallible when it comes to being the most aggressive with warm noses but agree that it could verify. I do wonder why in this instance it is the most aggressive - is it because it tracks the primary further north vs the other models? Does it show a stronger primary?
  24. ILoveWinter
    Interesting to see what the EPS mean shows
  25. ILoveWinter
    Warm noses are more common that not for SWFEs in our area. The original suppressed and cold runs seemed like a mirage.
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