ILoveWinter

Some mangled flakes mixing in now

Snow mixing in at UWS

If you mean the board today I concur - it’s half the fun!

So we have the GFS west, NAM and RGEM east and EURO sort of in between. Our climo makes forecasting interesting if nothing else.

Nice little double hedge: ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain into Monday morning, changes back to snow Monday afternoon into early evening. There is uncertainty with the exact timing of changeover. These amounts potentially could be higher should the transition to snow occur earlier. In addition, there is the potential for a heavy band of snow just to the west, with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Should this band move over the advisory area, snowfall totals would be a few inches higher than forecast.

Is that due to a lack of dynamics or borderline temps?

I seem to recall (could be wrong) that during pleasant or unpleasant surprises, there was usually 1 model that showed a similar outcome. So, if the furthest east outlier by 0z still doesn't get NYC into the heavy action, then it would take a pretty bad error across the board (not impossible but less likely) if such an outcome transpires.

western outlier so far

10-15 mile shift east for the rest of NYC beyond SI (please)

Euro showed around 3.5 for the park so seems reasonable enough

Yes same, and accumulating on cars and even on the sides of the roads

A mix in UWS tho can now clearly see the flakes

I’d gladly take this outcome at this stage

Anything on 12z runs?

Would be a cruel joke for the immediate NYC metro and eastward if this pans out

Also in the UWS and I’m expecting a slushy half inch that gets washed away by afternoon so won’t be too upset if that doesn’t pan out. Would be annoyed if tomorrow doesn’t work out tho.

Based on memory of past storms, anticipate some sort of correction on the position of the CCB, all depends on whether it’s East or West! Anyone know what is likelier for this storm? I recall the infamous Jan 2015 storm where the actual track was around 30 or so miles East and left NYC with scraps tho LI with monster totals.

Any chance Watches get extended southward in the next update?

Some of the other models have shown something similar though represented differently - they may be on to something

Of both the high and low variety I would say

That’s some cut off around the Queens - Nassau border up through Eastern Westchester and Putnam. Would be odd for Danbury to get less than Manhattan - I guess this is where the CCB would be parking itself?

This is an open forum so I sort of expect it and just don't get bothered by it too much, but to each his own I guess.

Eh, relax. I agree that there are some "interesting" posters who occasionally deserve a time out, but there are plenty of knowledgeable ones. Pretty easy to just filter out some of the nonsense if you ask me.

Earthlight still bullish: https://twitter.com/jhomenuk

Doesn't look like they are, I guess they are just erring on the conservative side as we are still a few days away.