ILoveWinter

Def more than a dusting in the UWS, been coming down nicely for a few hours now.

May end up being a top 2 event since the November storm, lol

Anyone else in NYC wake up surprised? Coming down nicely and all streets covered decently in the UWS, radar looks good for another hour or so.

lol so the NYC area is just too far south for this one? man we cant catch a break!

Maybe the first time i am hoping you are right this winter - i've just about had it with the constant disappointment, so it may as well be warm!

It was a let down in the snow department but the sleet lasted quite a while, the streets were a real mess that evening. Still some grassy surfaces here in the UWS covered by that mix.

Lol at this winter just finding a way to screw the snow lovers within the immediate nyc metro on east!

NAM could very well be right but why are you only focused on this model?

Maybe not in NYC but I can see schools in the northern and western suburbs closing.

Yea it seems that the immediate NYC region and LI (and further up to Boston) have been the real snow losers of this winters pattern with either being cold but too far north due to dry air / confluence or being too warm per the storm track.

Almost forgot about that one. Smh, is this the 3rd storm with a cutoff around Philly?

Haha same with me as I am traveling with a 5 year old to Orlando and dont want to deal with any delays or cancellations!

Know it’s a long way off but what’s the timing with this one? Just want to keep a close eye as I have an afternoon flight on Saturday.

Though the NAM could be right, it is still not in its "wheelhouse" range. I would give it till tonight before weighing its runs higher.

As long as the primary doesn't end up stronger that currently modeled, I think 3-4 is def doable in NYC proper. Not a huge snow but will take anything at this point!

Also important to see how early and strong the initial wave of snowy precip comes in (sometimes can be undermodeled). Hopefully its similar to the November storm.

Meh, honestly better to expect nothing for the rest of Winter, that way anything we do get would be a pleasant surprise. As a bonus, it will allow me to actually enjoy the mild temps this week!

Thought this was a great read. AFD discussion from the Chicago area on the cold: .SHORT TERM... 325 PM CST Through Wednesday... The much advertised record to near record cold blast is on our doorstep this afternoon. First order of business are the scattered snow showers and blowing snow that are causing impacts in some areas, especially on north-south roads in open areas. Most significantly, DuPage Airport has been reporting 3/4 mile or less visibility since just prior to 1pm and 1/4 mile visibility in heavy snow as of the 2pm hour. Thus the message remains the same, a combo of any falling snow and blowing snow with winds sustained 20-30 mph gusting up to 30-35 mph and briefly 40 mph at times will cause temporary sharply reduced visibility and possibly even brief near blizzard conditions. With the narrow character of these snow shower streamers on radar, also expect to encounter rapidly changing visibility and road conditions. Forecast soundings indicate that the setup will be less favorable for occasional moderate-heavy snow rates in these snow showers this evening and probably lower coverage as well, but did maintain snow shower mention. Blowing snow will continue to be an issue, especially in open areas. Wind chills in the -10 to -20 range as of this writing will fall to solidly 20 to 30 below during the evening commute and 30 to 40 below by the late evening as temperatures quickly fall to below zero area wide and a rapid fall commences during the evening. The core of the coldest air mass will advect over the area after midnight into Wednesday morning, bottoming out in the mid to possibly mid minus 30s Celsius (possibly minus upper 30s) at 850 mb. For reference, the coldest ever observed 850 mb temperature at ILX/PIA/RAN RAOB site is -32.9C on 1/10/1982. This will be true direct Arctic discharge as a lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex clips the region, a hallmark of past historic Arctic outbreaks. The arrival of coldest air mass will likely be marked by a bit of an uptick in the gusty winds overnight, with gusts back up to the 30-35 mph range until or just before daybreak. The low level cold air advection will continue through mid-day Wednesday, thus minimum air temperatures should be reached from 7-9am. With this being an advection cold, am now forecasting the entire CWA to be 20 below or colder, including downtown Chicago. Lowest temps will be about 27 to 28 below, so Rockford certainly has a chance to tie or break its coldest all-time temperature tomorrow morning and it may be close at ORD. Wednesday morning will have the most dangerous/life-threatening wind chills at 50 to 60 below for most of the area due to sustained winds 15-25 mph gusting to 30-35 mph. If you have the option to stay indoors tomorrow, you are urged to strongly consider it, considering the brutal cold and likelihood of at least patchy blowing snow. Have adjusted forecast "high" temps Wednesday afternoon down slightly from already astounding levels to now all areas staying at 10 below or colder and some locations in interior northern IL west of Fox Valley possibly not getting above 20 below. Assuming Chicago-O`Hare is colder than -11 at midnight tonight, which appears likely, then the new coldest high temperature on record appears extremely likely on Wednesday. Have even higher confidence in Rockford setting the new record cold high temp. With air temps in the teens below zero through the afternoon, afternoon wind chills will remain dangerous in the -35 to -45 range even with gradually diminishing westerly winds. For the grand finale of this possibly unprecedented Arctic blast, Wednesday night into Thursday morning appears primed to set records. Models continue to settle on very favorable position of 1035 mb surface ridge axis for strong decoupling over the deep snow pack, along with indication to this point that any high clouds will remain at bay until "the damage has been done" with temps. Suspect that most guidance is too strong with winds, so lowered speeds to below lowest MOS or bias corrected guidance, and wouldn`t be surprised if outlying locations go calm at times. Only possible fly in the ointment would be these above factors trending less favorable, but at this time do not see that occurring. The models have not backed off and in some cases, such as ECMWF, have incredibly trended slightly colder for Thursday morning lows. With the teens below zero starting point, see no reason why favored outlying locations in northern Illinois won`t reach or exceed the state low temperature record (-36F in Congerville on 1/5/1999), thus have continued to forecast as such at locations like KRPJ and KARR and surrounding areas. Would not be surprised if we have some places bottom out at -40F. If RFD does not set new all time record cold temperature Wednesday morning, it appears likely to shatter the record Thursday morning (our official forecast is now -32). There will be more of a urban "heat" island gradient from Chicago to the suburbs as cold will be purely radiational driven. Chicago still expected to have another night/morning of the entire city -20 or colder, and ORD will be very close to the -27 record from 1985. Eye opening that the 12z ECMWF is indicating -30 there and many ensemble members are close to the record. Finally, have added patchy fog mention to the grids outside of Chicago, with the thinking being that rare ice fog formation is possible with the Arctic temps and light winds. Clouds will increase of Thursday afternoon`s clipper, with a better recovery in temps but still locations I-80 and north outside of downtown Chicago may not reach 0 degrees. Castro

Some flurries in Manhattan

Maybe an insane hourly rate like that but prob wouldn't last an hour!

As anomalous as its been for us it's even more so for Boston considering their annual average, plus they didn't benefit from the November surprise.

Then why would a team NEVER decide to kick off in OT if the win the toss?

isn't it better to look at the EPS at the 10 day range?

The only storm I can remember where nyc was snowing while I was raining in Armonk! Basically as we were just ever so slightly east and NYC west of the nearly due North/South R/S line. We did end up changing over pretty early on anyway, recieved around 18 or so. 5-10 miles to the east was a huge cutoff. (radar is saved on this page: http://www.severeweathervideo.com/nyc_storm_blog_10.html) Prob one of my favorite storms due to its odd/retrograde track - though would not have thought so if I actually was a few miles to the east of the line, lol.

Still early and I doubt most people here will jump on a few good model suites! (eh, who am I kidding?)