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ILoveWinter

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Everything posted by ILoveWinter

  1. ILoveWinter
    Wouldn't be so bad for the immediate metro if this didn't also coincide with a weaker storm. Means little in the City without good rates even if in the main band of precipitation.
  2. ILoveWinter
    GFS will be interesting, I expect a shift south but just how much is the mystery.
  3. ILoveWinter
    It can happen with strong dynamics/ rates, seen it before but if we get fringed, it will be mostly wet even if snowing.
  4. ILoveWinter
    Yea especially in the City, weaker=no dynamics=no rates=nada
  5. ILoveWinter
    To me, with less than 24 hours until game time, I'd expect the ensembles to more or less agree with the Op. Typically we see large variations several days out and is why the EPS mean is a good tool at those lead times.
  6. ILoveWinter
    Yea tho there was agreement with the Op at 6z for the south trend. Will be interesting to see what happens here but my guess is that it will be similar.
  7. ILoveWinter
    Yea i'd toss if completely alone but that's not the case. However, if mesos stay consistent and don't budge south by the next set of runs then I'd be more inclined to toss.
  8. ILoveWinter
    What in the world is going on with the Euro?! Not saying it's wrong but wow so different. What are the Mesos indicating?
  9. ILoveWinter
    Def agree on being conservative in NYC, rates need to be there to overcome. Upside is nice though if it works out!
  10. ILoveWinter
    Yea agree. Just saw a segment and the Met was emphasizing the importance of a 40/70 benchmark track, def more informative than in years past.
  11. ILoveWinter
    They are not using a snow day and they have to consider that many teachers commute from outside of the city where a solid accumulation is expected. I don't think this was a surprising or wrong call at all.
  12. ILoveWinter
    Wow even if you halve this in the immediate metro due to ratios, it's still solid.
  13. ILoveWinter
    It's gotta be ripping in order to do so and that looks like a possibility.
  14. ILoveWinter
    Of course the temps could be off - I do agree with Don though as I've been through so many events in the city where it was snowing with temps around 34 and got very little accumulation.
  15. ILoveWinter
    My forecast for the City is 0-2 so wouldn't take much to bust positive lol.
  16. ILoveWinter
    Haha true, a few more winters of this and I may need to redefine what counts as substantial lol
  17. ILoveWinter
    I'm a weenie too but I've learned my lessons and one thing I refuse to do is stay up late for model runs unless we have a good shot at receiving a substantial snow fall in the City. This one certainly does not meet that standard!
  18. ILoveWinter
    I'm still holding out a bit of hope that EPS will be south of op similar to yesterday
  19. ILoveWinter
    ICON is def a northerly outlier wow. Today's runs will be quite telling.
  20. ILoveWinter
    Isn't this the op run which was on the northern end vs the other ensembles?
  21. ILoveWinter
    Yea it's about rates and dynamic cooling. Accumulation will happen if we have both regardless of antecedent airmass. The same is true for the opposite scenario, just look at the paltry accumulation in NYC during that 2nd "event" a few weeks ago even though the airmass in place was plenty cold. Rates just stunk.
  22. ILoveWinter
    8 days until we see precipitation (10 going back to Saturday) is pretty dry if you ask me, especially considering how wet and awful it's been.
  23. ILoveWinter
    Def an over performer, was forecasted a few tenths and over by now.
  24. ILoveWinter
    Yes and it took millions of years to go through those big climactic shifts whereas we are effecting change over a vastly shorter period of time. Does this really need to be explained? smh
  25. ILoveWinter
    Exactly, he's such a troll. Not saying it will happen and it of course would be better in February but first two weeks in March are legit in the immediate metro. Definitely gets dicey after that, though better N&W obviously.
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