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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    i would say that not much has changed in all honesty. Dec looks warm, Jan is transitionary, and Feb/Mar look pretty loaded with an Aleutian low, +PNA/-EPO alongside a -AO/-NAO
  2. brooklynwx99
    i don’t get some of the clamoring for a SSW… a disrupted SPV is more than enough if you want a -AO/NAO more often than not
  3. brooklynwx99
    500mb probably looks pretty damn good based on the OLR there. would imagine it largely held serve
  4. brooklynwx99
    in the same way that background warming may limit the effect of strong El Niños, it would also wash stuff like that out. instead of warm-cold-warm, you get hot-normal-hot like what we’re seeing now… the signature is still there
  5. brooklynwx99
    the run on that site doesn’t match up with that of Weatherbell. i’m just going to wait until a typical vendor has the CanSIPS. the most useful so far is the Canadian site, and that run looked similar to the last
  6. brooklynwx99
    you sure this site is correct? the CFS is nowhere near that cold for Feb and Mar. that looks more like what the CanSIPS has had
  7. brooklynwx99
    the SST anomalies are still projected to move westward. not going to be Modoki, but it’s still becoming a basin wide event
  8. brooklynwx99
    December isn't even that much of a winter month if you're near the coast. SE MA averages like 6" in December and close to 20" in Jan and Feb each. Mar is closer to 10" as well at least Ninos maximize the months that are already good instead of Ninas where you wreck your best month
  9. brooklynwx99
    seems like the ECMWF has a weakened SPV coming up once into Dec after the initial Nov spike. would be interesting if that’s indeed the effect
  10. brooklynwx99
    I like seeing the PV pinned in SE Canada with blocking over the top. would like to see more of a +PNA instead of neutral/slightly negative but this could work
  11. brooklynwx99
    it’s just screaming into the void. we’ll just see who has the right idea, nobody will be convinced at this point
  12. brooklynwx99
    i’ll believe that when i see it
  13. brooklynwx99
    how is it depressing? this is the best shot you guys have had since 2015
  14. brooklynwx99
    yeah i’ve been on the “this isn’t a Modoki event, but there can certainly be periods of Modoki forcing” train so not full on 2009/2002, but i could certainly see periods of good blocking. kinda like 2015-16 but colder. there are just too many similarities to the Modoki years to throw them out. forcing has hung way west and the MEI is lagging by a ton
  15. brooklynwx99
    you have a different opinion from me that’s also based in science? WISHCASTING give me a fucking break
  16. brooklynwx99
    he’s so mad lmao
  17. brooklynwx99
    any bets on the reigning insufferable blowhard of amwx? i’ll make good odds
  18. brooklynwx99
    what? 2013-14, 2014-15, 2017-18 and 2020-21 were all pretty great. not to mention the torrid stretch from 2000-2013
  19. brooklynwx99
    this is literally the best shot since 2009 for a legit big winter from NYC-PHL-DCA. 2015 was insanely strong (still produced the son of 1996)... 2009 was the last legit mod-strong event we've had in the last 14 years. there is a lot of reason for optimism
  20. brooklynwx99
    i like seeing the persistent -VP anomalies consistently setting up over the dateline. the CanSIPS has actually been doing a really good job with the forcing so far this October
  21. brooklynwx99
    this is not bad at all. full latitude ridge into AK allowing for pretty anomalous cold to move in behind the initial boundary. hopefully we can see the -NAO flex a bit to allow the 50/50 to trend stronger and less progressive. that is the key IMO i am worried that the ECMWF is a bit too amped with that MW shortwave, though. would make sense given its biases
  22. brooklynwx99
    the ECMWF still busted by almost half a degree a month out. that is horrific
  23. brooklynwx99
    Oct 15-Nov 15 is generally the most boring time of year, even if it gets colder than normal. just not much to talk about
  24. brooklynwx99
    yes, we likely do have some residual westerly winds, but nothing nearly as strong as the WWB we just saw. so we'll probably see some slight strengthening through November, but nothing that'll really blow this up
  25. brooklynwx99
    gotta say, if we top out at +1.7-1.9C with west-leaning forcing and a MEI in the +1.0-1.4C range, those weenie-ish CanSIPS depictions might not be as ridiculous. I'm feeling pretty good about things right now. you should be psyched where you're at
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