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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    pretty distinct trend to separate the two streams over the last two model cycles, increasing confluence later on
  2. brooklynwx99
    pretty distinct trend to separate the two streams over the last two model cycles, increasing confluence later on
  3. brooklynwx99
    pretty distinct trend to separate the two streams over the last two model cycles, increasing confluence later on
  4. brooklynwx99
    well yes, I'm just showing why it has what it has. I don't think it's correct
  5. brooklynwx99
    this is such an atrocious colorbar
  6. brooklynwx99
    just a note... the GFS is farther south because it has more confluence from the northern stream, not because it's less amplified. it's actually way more amped with the southern stream than the ECMWF so, although it's farther south, it doesn't seem to be due to its typical bias. for the record, I still think it's wrong, but it has a bit more validity this time since the differences between it and the other models is actually pretty small, and the northern stream can absolutely destructively interfere instead of phasing
  7. brooklynwx99
    granted, it's farther south because it has more confluence from the northern stream, not because it's less amplified. it's actually way more amped with the southern stream than the ECMWF so, although it's farther south, it doesn't seem to be due to its typical bias. for the record, I still think it's wrong, but it has a bit more validity this time since the differences between it and the other models are actually pretty small, and the northern stream can absolutely destructively interfere instead of phasing
  8. brooklynwx99
    like this is where it's at. really nice evolution here, and it makes sense PNA ridge spike, weakening block, and southern stream vort slips underneath the flow
  9. brooklynwx99
    potent signal as the Pacific trough retrogrades is still showing up. this is the best shot at a MECS IMO
  10. brooklynwx99
    years like 2010 and 2016 had a strong Pacific trough and potent STJ like this one. seeing blue colors off the WC isn't some death knell if you have blocking and Alaskan ridging
  11. brooklynwx99
    i wouldn't say that anything has gotten pushed back at all, it just looks like there's less spread along the WC. members differed on where to place the greatest positive anomalies, and they ended up more into AK, which is better for cold air supply, if anything the 50/50 ULL is also stronger. i don't see an issue here
  12. brooklynwx99
    whoops meant to say that the Pacific trough off the WC will retrograde into more of a typical Aleutian low. whatevs lmao
  13. brooklynwx99
    i'd probably lean towards a ECMWF/UKMET blend at this point, makes the most sense. CMC looks too diffuse and rainy while the GFS is likely too far south
  14. brooklynwx99
    meh there's no real way to know at all of it's one and done. blocking likely resurfaces from Scandinavia given the SPV weakening and the Aleutian low will retrograde. bird in the hand is worth two in the bush anyway
  15. brooklynwx99
    with all of the agonizing over OP runs, we're still looking at a cold, active pattern with a tall AK ridge, west based -NAO blocking, confluence, and a Pacific trough undercutting. the more you take a step back and look at the bigger picture, the more things look the same
  16. brooklynwx99
    with all of the agonizing over OP runs, we're still looking at a cold, active pattern with a tall AK ridge, west based -NAO blocking, confluence, and a Pacific trough undercutting. the more you take a step back and look at the bigger picture, the more things look the same
  17. brooklynwx99
    nice to know that we will have multiple shots in the chamber. sign of an actual good pattern
  18. brooklynwx99
    @ORH_wxman GEFS is still showing the Rockies ridge spike as the Pacific trough retros. block is weakening too. this is probably the most favorable period synoptically for a region wide significant storm
  19. brooklynwx99
    really nice evolution, can see the Rockies ridge spike as the Pacific trough retrogrades
  20. brooklynwx99
    "weak blocking pattern" lol literally a pristine 2 sigma block over the Davis Strait at 300 hours out
  21. brooklynwx99
    this is a highly anomalous blocking signal... we're talking 250-350m anomalies at like 13 days out
  22. brooklynwx99
    GEFS looks like this. the OP is out to lunch
  23. brooklynwx99
    pretty weak blocking signal? really?
  24. brooklynwx99
    lol OP GFS has been showing dumb shit for like two weeks that the GEFS doesn’t even agree with
  25. brooklynwx99
    holy crap
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