brooklynwx99

NAM is going to move S. more confluence as well as a weaker system

NAM is notably lower with heights. always a bit hesitant to believe a warmer solution given a strong HP in an ideal location

GFS going to be colder... more confluence in SE Canada

GFS also going to be colder... more confluence in SE Canada

Sunday has a pretty interesting setup... definitely has some upside potential one of the major features that we often need for a larger system to have a reasonable shot at delivering to the NYC metro and S is the presence of a 50/50 ULL to provide some confluence. we would definitely have that here. the TPV that's responsible for the +NAO is actually delivering significant confluence here, acting as a "fake" block there's also a highly anomalous ridge that forms from the Rockies up into W Canada, which will allow for NS waves to dig and amplify as the SS wave moves across the country. it's not often you see a 2 sigma ridge building poleward like that this is by no means a perfect setup, and it does need some work, but there is definitely heightened potential for a larger event here given the overall pattern

Sunday has a pretty interesting setup... definitely has some upside potential one of the major features that we often need for a larger system to have a reasonable shot at delivering throughout the MA from VA to NYC is the presence of a 50/50 ULL to provide some confluence. we would definitely have that here. the TPV that's responsible for the +NAO is actually delivering significant confluence here, acting as a "fake" block there's also a highly anomalous ridge that forms from the Rockies up into W Canada, which will allow for NS waves to dig and amplify as the SS wave moves across the country. it's not often you see a 2 sigma ridge building poleward like that this is by no means a perfect setup, and it does need some work, but there is definitely heightened potential for a larger event here given the overall pattern

yeah, a 250m anomaly on a 5 day mean with total ensemble support is super anomalous stuff. would be lots of wintry chances through mid-month

GFS looks great

big hit here. wow

big thump for pretty much everyone

great thump here with HP locked in

hey, people from different subforums come in here and it's always useful to provide context for broad geographical comments like that someone from, say, the MA could get the wrong impression otherwise

I mean... it's still a pretty active overrunning pattern. lower than average heights in SE Canada and probably lots of sfc HP due to the -EPO. a weak 500mb SE ridge isn't a death knell by any means with the EPO domain looking like that if I was from NYC north I would 100% take my chances with that

not exactly sure who's going to get it here, but this is exactly what you want to see for overrunning wintry precip in the N MA strong, zonal 250mb jet streak, zonal 500mb flow with confluence in SE Canada, and entrenched cold air with strong HP

@Typhoon Tip here comes the GFS correcting heights given the strong cold press

also, to make sure that the March 2015 analog isn't overstated, here are NYC's Marches over 10" since 1980: notice that there are some striking similarities to the pattern that we're likely entering: the main feature in those Marches is a +PNA/-EPO with the positive anomalies centered over AK, which is what we have here. also, blocking really doesn't play much of a role in determining whether the month will be snowy or not. in fact, there's a +NAO on average in short, we might be in for it

yeah, I'm not expecting KNYC to get almost 20" of snow, but there's always an elevated risk for winter storms when the pattern is that amplified, no matter the antecedent conditions would be different if Jan and Feb torched, but Jan was cold and Feb will probably finish a bit above normal it's just a signal that we're probably entering into a pattern that's worked for us, historically

March 15 style KNYC got 18.6" in Mar 15 and the two patterns share a lot of similarities

we're going to have a lot of chances if this is even in the ballpark

yeah, it’s one of the most impressive cold signals I’ve seen in a while

wow, this is super impressive stuff 200m anomaly on the 5 day mean over AK

man, this is really impressive

it's a good sign. there's pretty notable split flow, so this ups the risk for phasing scenarios and general storminess with the northern and southern streams mingling

I don't think it would be an issue, per se, but it would not shock me to see a beefy system slam DC as the cold press strengthens. I think this pattern favors pretty much all of the E US that split flow is a nice asset as well... ups the phasing possibilities