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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    aside from the early cooldown, April looks warmer than not. also some indications of a warmer summer but that's way out there. the base state of the persistent SE / W Atlantic ridge has been established, so ride with that until further notice
  2. brooklynwx99
    this is a locked and loaded KU pattern... in early-mid March. however, it's not impossible to see some more snow given the very favorable pattern here. climo is certainly a problem S of the M-D line, but I wouldn't totally rule it out
  3. brooklynwx99
    if there's one pattern to get a late season event, this would be it: highly anomalous, decaying WB -NAO, 50/50 ULL, and a strong OH Valley trough obviously, climo is unfavorable, but there's the potential for another winter storm if this pattern verifies. if we saw this even a couple of weeks ago we'd be talking KU
  4. brooklynwx99
    if there's one pattern to get a late season event, this would be it: highly anomalous, decaying WB -NAO, 50/50 ULL, and a strong OH Valley trough obviously, climo is unfavorable, but there's the potential for another winter storm if this pattern verifies. if we saw this even a couple of weeks ago we'd be talking KU
  5. brooklynwx99
  6. brooklynwx99
    could be some blizzard conditions after the changeover with 1-2"+/hr rates and gusts around 30-40 mph
  7. brooklynwx99
    could be some blizzard conditions after the changeover with 1-2"+/hr rates and gusts around 30-40 mph
  8. brooklynwx99
    pretty wild to see the EPS become colder and colder each run with less than 48 hours of lead time
  9. brooklynwx99
    very impressive to see such a consistent cold trend at 48 hours out from the EPS
  10. brooklynwx99
    looks like the colder trends are continuing! could be a nice burst of moderate to heavy snow in the metro around midday. 1-3” is a good call for now, mainly on colder surfaces
  11. brooklynwx99
  12. brooklynwx99
    6z GFS even colder… the trend has been pretty impressive overall
  13. brooklynwx99
    6z GFS even colder… the trend has been pretty impressive overall
  14. brooklynwx99
    6z GFS even colder… the trend has been pretty impressive overall
  15. brooklynwx99
    wow. ECMWF continues increasing the interaction of the TPV, notably lowering heights and leading to a colder solution
  16. brooklynwx99
    wow. ECMWF continues increasing the interaction of the TPV, notably lowering heights and leading to a colder solution
  17. brooklynwx99
    the key over the last few runs across the GFS and ECMWF has been increased involvement of the TPV. the lobe has consistently trended deeper, lowering heights and temps as a result over the NE
  18. brooklynwx99
    GFS is also continuing the trend of more TPV interaction leading to a colder solution
  19. brooklynwx99
    GFS is also continuing the trend of more TPV interaction leading to a colder solution
  20. brooklynwx99
    every ensemble had the same overall pattern, and the signal decayed on all ensembles. the GEFS was also very aggressive with the cold, as was the GEPS. it happens never said the EPS was correct, either. just said that it's worth considering that kind of solution if the trend continues at 00z
  21. brooklynwx99
    there has been a pretty legit trend towards a stronger TPV, which leads to lowering of the heights over the NE and a quicker cold air intrusion tough to say if the EPS is out to lunch, but given the consistency of this trend and the lead time presented, it's hard to totally ignore it
  22. brooklynwx99
    there has been a pretty legit trend towards a stronger TPV, which leads to lowering of the heights over the NE and a quicker cold air intrusion tough to say if the EPS is out to lunch, but given the consistency of this trend and the lead time presented, it's hard to totally ignore it
  23. brooklynwx99
    I'll continue to take my chances with this much cold air around. there's been signals for a larger system around the 13-18th, and it does fit the general pattern around that time
  24. brooklynwx99
    nothing has changed regarding the mid-month period. this is anomalous cold and there's been signals of a larger system popping in the 13-18th timeframe
  25. brooklynwx99
    yeah the pattern coming up is anomalously cold. it does favor NYC-PHL and N, but with a cold press that strong, there definitely is the possibility for the MA to see some wintry weather as well
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