brooklynwx99

really nice to see the GEFS make continuous improvements over the Pacific for the last model cycle this is part of the reason why I think the EPS is handling this pattern better, as it’s been way more consistent over the WC and AK

really nice to see the GEFS make continuous improvements over the Pacific for the last model cycle this is part of the reason why I think the EPS is handling this pattern better, as it’s been way more consistent over the WC and AK

this is the EPS compared to the pattern 7 days before 18"+ snowstorms in NYC, which includes storms like 1996, 2016, and BDB you guys can make of this what you will

I agree that the block will initially shred some stuff as it strengthens... but the window really opens up for a major event as it decays the pattern evolution for 18"+ events for NYC, as well as parts of SNE by extension, shows this quite well: if the pattern depicted by the EPS / GEPS is correct, which I believe it is to a large extent, then our window for a major storm would be in the Dec 15-25 timeframe as the block matures and decays over central Canada

yeah it was one of the top analogs for my coworker and I when crafting the winter outlook. PDO and MEI are great matches too

right? they're kind of uncanny sometimes I find it hard to make comparisons to periods like that because it can come off as alarmist or pure hype, but I really do think that this pattern could hold really high end potential. just wanna wait like another 5 days or so to get more agreement near AK... the GEFS is so different compared to the EPS/GEPS

i understand that some of you guys are skeptical about December snow, and rightfully so, but this is basically a perfect pattern for a large snowfall event a 300+ meter anomaly over the Davis Strait on a 5 day mean is the stuff of dreams

soak it in, this is about as weenie as it gets a 300+ anomaly on a 5 day mean at that range is bonkers

yup. my point exactly. the 12z GEFS looks niiiiiiiice too

the OP runs are going to struggle mightily in a pattern with lots of blocking and amplification. something like the 12z GFS isn't impossible, obviously, but a strong, west-based -NAO leads to a trough in the east much of the time, like what the 00z EPS has it's the same kind of thing as thinking we're going to see a -NAO and a favorable pattern coming based on one or two OP runs when there's a vortex over AK and the SPV is super strong. the general waveguide in the NH does favor a good pattern, we just have to see if we can weed out some of the more unlikely, unfavorable solutions over the coming week or so or our luck could be atrocious and we get last December all over again. we'll see! i really doubt it though

also, betting on something like that happening as opposed to the 06z GFS solution is like praying for a 2014-15 type pattern when the pattern is primed for a +EPO here, the pattern progression most likely leads to a strong -NAO and trough in the east. other solutions are possible, but something like the 00z EPS is probably the most favored

here is the run-to-run change from the 06z to 12z GFS OP. OP models always struggle at range, but they're going to struggle even more with a blocked up pattern with tons of amplification gotta use the ensembles, and they still look good

pretty classic look here with the Rockies ridging appearing as the block attenuates. this is where the window for a major storm opens

the ridging over the Rockies popping up as the block attenuates is classic. this is where the potential really cranks up

haha none taken! i’ve just seen some people doubting how good that pattern can be for whatever reason. it’s an amazing look and we want to see it continue to move forward in time

lmao for those that weenied my previous post, I’m not exactly sure what else you’d want to see for a large coastal storm that pattern is mint

EPS is absolutely gorgeous. this is primed for a high end snowfall event anywhere from BOS to RIC around the 15th through late month

not sure what some of the angst is about when we have an upcoming pattern that’ll probably look like this what more can you ask for if you want large coastals? this is the blueprint

no, not really. these retrograding Scandinavian blocking events are usually picked up at range just like most anomalous weather events. March 2018 was modeled at 10-15 days out and never waivered there are definitely some similarities between the two blocking events: initial SE ridging that gets squashed a strong Aleutian high western trough Plains ridging that eventually retrogrades to the Rockies, leading to a trough over the east and a favorable pattern for larger storms this is kind of what I expect to happen here, but every setup is different

the GEFS is also very similar to the period before Feb 2021 as well as much of Mar 2018. these blocks have historically produced high-end events... much of what you're hearing on social media or on forums really isn't hype with a pattern like this. the potential is just that high

i mean, it's hard not to get excited when you have a block like that. retrograding and decaying -NAO blocks are how we get our largest storms:

i agree. that puts us around the 15-25th or so

2010-11 is valid here. the similarities to the late Dec 2010 pattern are uncanny and if this block does materialize in this way, there is certainly the potential for a high-end event during the second half of the month

i mean... this is about as exciting of a look as it gets for SNE if history means anything. can't ask for much more when you have a perfectly placed block like that also, as the block matures, often times the ridging over the Plains retrogrades to the Rockies, and wave breaking from the Aleutian ridge leads to amplification of that ridge. this loop kinda shows that