Jump to content

brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,235

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    GEFS looks like it should eject more of the vort this run
  2. brooklynwx99
    high amplitude blocking patterns like this are absolute hell for modeling. I would just focus on the ensembles and really try not to place too much emphasis on OP runs. there are going to be so many wildly different solutions either way, I find it hard to believe that an impactful storm won't pop from this at some point through the 15th, even if most OP runs don't see it now. this is a powder keg setup
  3. brooklynwx99
    CMC looks similar to 00z so far anyway
  4. brooklynwx99
    I think it's lost
  5. brooklynwx99
    would definitely be cold enough if we get a coastal SLP, not really worried about temps as of now
  6. brooklynwx99
    hey, based on what I’ve seen, the EPS/GEPS are on the right track and the GEFS is slowly caving. the GEFS made a bigggg move last night towards them
  7. brooklynwx99
    the EPS continues to improve, and the GEFS made a huge shift last night towards the EPS/GEPS with regards to booting the S/W out of the west. gets a lot more of the vort into the Plains. good ENS runs last night
  8. brooklynwx99
    06z EPS made some nice improvements. the S/W is a bit less held back, the block is stronger, and so is the 50/50… less downstream ridging and the 50/50 pokes more into the NE US
  9. brooklynwx99
    i can see that happening that far north, suppression can be an issue up there
  10. brooklynwx99
    robust signal for a coastal low with lots of cold air around
  11. brooklynwx99
    just because a model shows something does not mean that it’s likely to occur
  12. brooklynwx99
    EPS looks pretty much the same. don’t get all the hemming and hawing. i also think that any “increases” in the SE ridge are due to slightly slower timing. it still looks pretty much the same as we’ve seen it over the last few days
  13. brooklynwx99
    holy crap. we are FINALLY seeing the GEFS eject a significant portion of the S/W into the Plains. this is a massive move towards the EPS/GEPS. probably the move most of you were waiting for. here it is! hopefully it sticks at 06z lmao
  14. brooklynwx99
    wow
  15. brooklynwx99
    GEPS is pretty much holding steady
  16. brooklynwx99
    GEFS isn’t hanging the energy back nearly as much as 18z
  17. brooklynwx99
    because all of the legitimate improvements of said run were ignored for the result, which was meteorologically dubious anyway. retrograding blocks don’t just plow southward like that
  18. brooklynwx99
    some of you guys are absolutely ridiculous lmao
  19. brooklynwx99
    CMC looks very nice. vort goes right underneath the block. ends up dry verbatim, but this is the 500mb configuration you’d like to see. just a bit messy
  20. brooklynwx99
    the way the GFS handles the block afterwards is bizarre, though. retrograding blocks just don’t do that. i’ve seen a fair amount of them and i’ve never seen them do that before. i wouldn’t worry about it. it’s exotic, to say the least either way, it’s trending towards the other models with the handling of the vort out west and the CMC has held serve so far
  21. brooklynwx99
    the CMC is also not going anywhere near the previous GFS solutions… looks great so far
  22. brooklynwx99
    vort isn’t hanging back as much into the Pac NW as much this run. bigggg change here
  23. brooklynwx99
    GFS looks improved so far more poleward ridging into AK like the EPS/GEPS and the vort in the NW US is tilted more positively
  24. brooklynwx99
    the “hot” and “cold” model stuff is just confirmation bias it’s the equivalent of playing Call of Duty and saying “as soon as i stop looking around this corner and move somewhere else I die!” when in reality you don’t get shot most of the time. you only pick up on it when it does happen it’s the same thing
  25. brooklynwx99
    i posted about it in detail a few minutes earlier
×
×
  • Create New...