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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    that's just one ensemble run, though. the 00z GEFS looked good, as did all of the other ensemble means at 00z. there are going to be fluctuations, but the general look has remained very consistent
  2. brooklynwx99
    not sure why there’s so much despair here over a cold gradient pattern. makes no sense
  3. brooklynwx99
    a "cutter pattern" and a pattern where you can get a cutter (again, like 80-90% of patterns) are two different things this is a cutter pattern... what we're seeing now. not even close to what we'll be seeing, especially in terms of cold air
  4. brooklynwx99
    you risk cutters in like 90% of patterns though. this is a good to great pattern for you guys depending on latitude, the source region is ice cold and the split flow should allow for southern stream waves to clash with the cold airmass. active with lots of cold high pressure nearby often leads to success but yes, this is not a "loaded" pattern like what we'd see with a west-based -NAO or a full latitude -EPO/+PNA
  5. brooklynwx99
    this is great from a synoptic perspective split flow, TPV lobes in SE Canada providing an extremely cold source region, a boundary nearby... there should be chances here for legit overrunning
  6. brooklynwx99
    I just can't really count this out from a synoptic perspective split flow, TPV lobes in SE Canada providing an extremely cold source region, a boundary nearby... there should be chances here for legit overrunning
  7. brooklynwx99
    I just can't really count this out from a synoptic perspective split flow, TPV lobes in SE Canada providing an extremely cold source region, a boundary nearby... there should be chances here for legit overrunning
  8. brooklynwx99
    in this type of gradient pattern, we could either get either of these solutions. there really isn't any kind of way to figure out which is going to happen based off of OP runs, so take them with a grain of salt for the time being and we'll see how things clear up over the next several days this is still the best window we've had with a TON of available cold in SE Canada and a bunch of shortwaves. this period could be prolific, or it could absolutely suck. keep your mind open
  9. brooklynwx99
    in this type of gradient pattern, we could either get either of these solutions. there really isn't any kind of way to figure out which is going to happen based off of OP runs, so take them with a grain of salt for the time being and we'll see how things clear up over the next several days this is still the best window we've had with a TON of available cold in SE Canada and a bunch of shortwaves. this period could be prolific, or it could absolutely suck. keep your mind open
  10. brooklynwx99
    you have to take what the guidance is giving you. the pattern progression shown by all major ensembles is good, and downplaying it because of what happened weeks ago isn’t a good way to forecast. by that logic, those that forecasted the Blizzard of 2016 would’ve been called crazy since that winter was so warm beforehand persistence always looks genius until it falls flat on its face
  11. brooklynwx99
    the favorable period really begins in February when the TPV gets displaced and allows waves to track underneath it. big overrunning signal here 9/30 members give NYC over a foot of snow in the next 16 days. not sure why futility is even being mentioned
  12. brooklynwx99
    the favorable period really begins in February when the TPV gets displaced and allows waves to track underneath it. big overrunning signal here seven members out of 30 give BOS 20” or more in the next 16 days! crazy
  13. brooklynwx99
    the favorable period really begins in February when the TPV gets displaced and allows waves to track underneath it. big overrunning signal here
  14. brooklynwx99
    timing a shortwave at more than 5 days out is pretty much impossible, and the factors that lead to snow on the coastal plain generally come down to luck, this isn't New England, we need things to break right the blocking this year was actually more anomalous. I'm just saying it's a matter of bad luck because you can't determine exactly where it's going to set up and how it'll impact the pattern more than like 5 days out. it's just not possible
  15. brooklynwx99
    not really sure. it's probably just bad luck... if the shortwave that led to the cutter came in a day later, it would have been a huge coastal storm, but the ridge was too far W and then the follow up wave was a day too late and the ridge broke down out west. just really bad timing, could have been a very good stretch. luck is always in our winters here
  16. brooklynwx99
    if you're talking about late December, that pattern deserved to be hyped up. it was pretty awful luck that the period didn't produce, what can you do though sometimes even the 9/10 patterns fail. December 2010 could have easily gone the same way, but we got lucky with BDB
  17. brooklynwx99
    it couldn't be because we've had the most productive snow period over the last 15 years ever, no? Islip has averaged more than State College lmao regression to the mean sucks
  18. brooklynwx99
    well, this place is chipper as always
  19. brooklynwx99
    this could be a really nice period. lots of cold air available and very active with the baroclinic zone to the south
  20. brooklynwx99
    this could be a really nice period. lots of cold air available and very active with the baroclinic zone to the south
  21. brooklynwx99
    this could be a really nice period. lots of available cold and very active with the baroclinic zone to the south
  22. brooklynwx99
    disruptions can be as useful as SSWs in terms of making blocking a bit more easy to obtain
  23. brooklynwx99
    it looks like we’re seeing the 700mb vort tick farther W, leading to a better chance for legit wraparound precip
  24. brooklynwx99
    yeah, it's not like ensemble forecasting isn't the most powerful medium to long range forecasting tool we have instead, we should use persistence and outdated MJO plots. i don't even know why I got a degree!
  25. brooklynwx99
    give me an actual meteorological reason that you know that they'll be rain besides the fact that it's been warm so far this month I never said they they would 100% be snow, or even that it's likely that they're snow just that the TPV has a chance of pressing S and can deliver confluence ahead of a southern stream wave, leading to an overrunning event, and that's what the ensembles may be picking up on. not that crazy of an idea
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